Policy Currents | The newsletter for policy people
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** Feb. 3, 2026
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Venezuela After Maduro: Q&A with RAND Experts
One month ago today, the United States captured Nicolás Maduro, bringing the Venezuelan president to New York City to face federal drug trafficking charges.
In a new Q&A, three RAND experts discuss the long-term implications from several angles: Venezuela's trajectory and why it matters, how regional players are responding, the ongoing evolution of U.S.-Venezuela relations, and much more.
Here are just a few of their insights:
- Venezuela is Latin America's "most closely watched case of democratic erosion followed by uncertain political reconfiguration," says Marie Jones. And on a material level, instability in the country has triggered a displacement crisis, straining the region.
- The U.S.-Venezuela relationship is "still delicately evolving," says Tahina Montoya. Exactly how will depend on "the consistency of U.S. policy, the direction of Venezuela's political transition, the role of regional partners, and the will of the Venezuelan people, with direct implications for regional and hemispheric security."
- The most plausible near-term term scenario for Venezuela "remains the persistence of a deeply entrenched authoritarian system marked by ongoing instability," says Kelly Piazza.
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China’s LLMs Could Catch Up
U.S. large language models (LLMs) like ChatGPT and Gemini are the most used in the world, but American dominance may not last. A new RAND report finds that China's LLMs are capable of rapidly gaining global market share. For example, after the January 2025 launch of DeepSeek R1, a powerful Chinese model, site visits to China-based LLMs increased by 460 percent in just two months. To stay ahead, U.S. LLM providers will need to continuously maintain performance superiority.
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Space Governance: The Dual-Use Dilemma
Imagine a robotic arm that can clean up dangerous debris in space. This tool could be vital to keeping orbits safe, but it could also be used to disable active satellites. As RAND's Bruce McClintock puts it, "One person's trash-removal system is another person's anti-satellite weapon." In a new video, McClintock and colleagues discuss an ongoing effort to better understand the challenge of dual-use technologies in space and how to ensure safety and security in the cosmos.
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** RAND Recommends
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- Most clicked last week: a new RAND report examines how AI could shape the future of warfare.
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- In a new video, RAND Europe's John Kennedy discusses five ways Russian President Vladimir Putin's reign might come to an end.
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- Applications are open for the inaugural RAND/DARPA Geoeconomics Summer Study in Washington, D.C. The program is open to undergraduate, master's, and doctoral students.
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** Events
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The U.S.-Japan Alliance
Tuesday, February 17, 2026 (Online)
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A New Age of Nations: Power and Advantage in the AI Era
Wednesday, February 18, 2026 (Online)
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** Policy Minded, RAND's Flagship Podcast
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On Policy Minded, we pick the brains of the world's top policy experts. In each episode, RAND researchers join us for conversations that go beyond the headlines--bringing you insights you can't find anywhere else.
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