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A female militiaman holding a Venezuelan flag in Caracas, January 23, 2026. Photo by Javier Campos/NurPhoto |
One month ago today, the United States captured Nicolás Maduro, bringing the Venezuelan president to New York City to face federal drug trafficking charges.
In a new Q&A, three RAND experts discuss the long-term implications from several angles: Venezuela’s trajectory and why it matters, how regional players are responding, the ongoing evolution of U.S.-Venezuela relations, and much more.
Here are just a few of their insights:
- Venezuela is Latin America’s “most closely watched case of democratic erosion followed by uncertain political reconfiguration,” says Marie Jones. And on a material level, instability in the country has triggered a displacement crisis, straining the region.
- The U.S.-Venezuela relationship is “still delicately evolving,” says Tahina Montoya. Exactly how will depend on “the consistency of U.S. policy, the direction of Venezuela’s political transition, the role of regional partners, and the will of the Venezuelan people, with direct implications for regional and hemispheric security.”
- The most plausible near-term term scenario for Venezuela “remains the persistence of a deeply entrenched authoritarian system marked by ongoing instability,” says Kelly Piazza.
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U.S. large language models (LLMs) like ChatGPT and Gemini are the most used in the world, but American dominance may not last. A new RAND report finds that China’s LLMs are capable of rapidly gaining global market share. For example, after the January 2025 launch of DeepSeek R1, a powerful Chinese model, site visits to China-based LLMs increased by 460 percent in just two months. To stay ahead, U.S. LLM providers will need to continuously maintain performance superiority.
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Imagine a robotic arm that can clean up dangerous debris in space. This tool could be vital to keeping orbits safe, but it could also be used to disable active satellites. As RAND's Bruce McClintock puts it, “One person's trash-removal system is another person's anti-satellite weapon.” In a new video, McClintock and colleagues discuss an ongoing effort to better understand the challenge of dual‑use technologies in space and how to ensure safety and security in the cosmos.
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Events
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Tuesday, February 17, 2026 – Online
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Wednesday, February 18, 2026 – Online
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