From Matt de Ferranti <[email protected]>
Subject Our Economy Now: Amazon, the Budget, and Inclusive Growth
Date March 14, 2023 4:00 PM
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Dear Friends,

Since I wrote you three weeks ago, I have continued to work on safety for Arlington's residents under age 21. Arlington Public School leadership has also engaged in information and listening sessions at several schools and proposed 12 additional mental health staff. On substance abuse, the Police Chief has been engaged and we are taking steps to prevent Arlington young people from harm and the conditions that can lead to drug use.

More to come on this. For now, please know that staff is leading the detailed parts of the work and both the County Board and the School Board are engaged on the policy and details as appropriate.
Washington Post Article on Amazon's Pause of HQ2 ([link removed])
The biggest other topics over the last four weeks have been Amazon's announcement that it will pause work on HQ2, our budget, and Arlington's economy.

On Friday March 3rd, Amazon announced that it is pausing construction on the second set of buildings for its HQ2 in the Crystal City/Pentagon City neighborhood. I learned of the pause Friday morning; it was not a big surprise, but I did not know of it until that day. The impact on our community of this step is noteworthy and worth monitoring, but is not of particular concern to me for several reasons.

First, over the coming months, Amazon is relocating significant numbers of employees--it has hired 8,000--to the first part of its HQ2, Met Park. Second, Amazon has clarified that it is on track to finish Met Park in June. That progress is certainty a good thing. Third, the County has not yet paid any incentives to Amazon and our agreement with them is dependent on increases in our hotel stays. Fourth and most importantly, Amazon is continuing to bring jobs to our community and will do so for years to come. I am confident that they will continue to be partners with our community's interests at heart, and our agreement with them makes sure of it. Click on the article available via the blue button above for additional context.
Budget Article: Increases for First Responders & Flat Tax Rates ([link removed] supported this decision because our commercial revenues have been strong enough to help us close our projected gap and fund investments in employees via collective bargaining and other key priorities. My current instinct, given that we have eliminated several positions and that there needs for investments in mental health services and housing and our schools is to keep the tax rate the same. To be clear, that would mean increases of an everate of For a more extensive summary than the infographic above, you can go to our main Fiscal 2024 Budget page: [link removed] )
The Arlington County Budget for the Fiscal Year that starts this coming July 1 has also been the focus of much of the County Board's time. At our February meetings, the Board received the County Manager's initial proposed budget. We also decided not to advertise a tax rate increase. I supported this decision because our commercial revenues have been strong enough to help us close our projected gap and fund investments in employees via collective bargaining and other key priorities.
[link removed]
Click on the image to go to an infographic on the Fiscal Year 2024 Budget.
My current instinct, given that we have eliminated multiple positions and that there are needs for investments in mental health services and housing and our schools, is to keep the tax rate the same.

To be clear, that would mean increases of an average tax bill for homeowners, who make up 38% of Arlington residents, would see a tax increase of $353 in their property tax bill this year over last year, due to increases in assessments. (Renters make up 62% of our residents and the impact of taxes on rents is a more complicated question, though most would say tax increases are in many cases passed on to renters.)

For a more extensive summary, you can go to our main Fiscal 2024 Budget page: [link removed] or watch the video below.
[link removed]
Short Video with a summary, followed by comments from the County Manager on the proposed budget.
Amazon and the Budget have led me to reflect on Arlington's economy now: we are in decent shape, but have plenty of work to do. On the positive side, we have significant economic development projects other than Amazon underway--George Mason's tech facility in the Virginia Square/Clarendon neighborhood is an example. We also have an educated workforce and economic growth slated for Clarendon, Rosslyn, Ballston, and the significant transit oriented development we approved in Crystal City at the January Board meeting.
[link removed]
Watch this 3 minute video where young Arlingtonians share their passion for tech as they work on living the American Dream.
The key to our prosperity as a whole will be to recognize the hard choices we must make on vacancy rates and invest in economic development so that we will have the resources to provide good services. That's where the above video on training for tech comes in: we must invest in inclusive growth and up-skill our residents to take the tech jobs that Amazon and other employers will have open over the months and years to come.

We must pay attention to our office vacancy rate of 22%. That rate is a source of concern as it is higher than 5 years ago when I ran on reducing it. The pandemic has changed how we work, and that vacancy rate is based on a much larger denominator than 4 years ago. In other words, Amazon's new office space and the other apartments we have built have added to the amount of our tax base that can take us back toward our goal of a 50/50 split in our property tax revenues between commercial and residential properties.

[link removed]
Press Conference from March 3rd regarding the Earthquake in Turkey and Syria. We are at $9,785. Please help us get to $10,000 by contributing.

I want to close by asking if you will consider contributing to funding that the Northern Virginia Regional Commission is trying to raise for the earthquake victims in Syria. To hear from Northern Virginia elected leaders about this, click on the video above.

Then, to contribute, go here: [link removed]

Thank you for reading. This Saturday is the hearing on the missing middle. I continue listen to all perspectives and we will act on either next Tuesday, or more likely next Wednesday the 22nd. I will email you in the days that follow to share my thoughts.

Sincerely,

Matt

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