[U.S. officials are trying to preserve a truce that has reduced
violence and created the possibility for a negotiated settlement to
the war.]
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FACING HOUTHI VICTORY IN YEMEN, US CHANGES TACTICS  
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Edward Hunt
December 14, 2022
Foreign Policy in Focus
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_ U.S. officials are trying to preserve a truce that has reduced
violence and created the possibility for a negotiated settlement to
the war. _

Yemen War Detailed Map, 0ali1, CC BY-SA 4.0 via Wikimedia Commons

 

After years of backing a disastrous, Saudi-led military intervention
in Yemen, the United States is shifting its approach to the war,
supporting a UN-brokered truce that has resulted in the most
significant reduction of violence since the war began.

Bowing to the reality that the opposition Houthi movement now controls
80 percent of the population of Yemen and has acquired the means to
launch missiles deep into Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates,
U.S. officials have been focusing on the truce as a means of achieving
a ceasefire and ending the war.

The truce “has brought a period of unprecedented calm in Yemen,
saving thousands of lives and bringing tangible relief for countless
Yemenis,” President Joe Biden said
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a statement in August.

For years, the United States has played a major role in the war in 
[[link removed]]Yemen
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behind the scenes, the U.S. military has quietly empowered a Saudi-led
military coalition to conduct a devastating war against Houthi rebels,
who seized control of the capital city of Sanaa in 2014.

As part of its military campaign, the Saudi-led military coalition
repeatedly launched airstrikes against civilian targets, including
schools, buses, markets, prisons, weddings, funerals, and hospitals.
Their attacks on civilians shocked much of the world, leading
to charges
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crimes
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The Saudi-led coalition’s military intervention sparked a massive
humanitarian crisis that continues to this day. The situation in Yemen
remains “the largest humanitarian crisis in the world,” according
to the United Nations [[link removed]].
An estimated 80 percent of the population requires humanitarian
assistance just to survive.

For the United States, the war has been a moral and strategic failure.
Not only has the United States enable
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Saudi-led military coalition to commit war crimes, but it has steadily
lost influence throughout Yemen and the broader Middle East.

At a congressional hearing
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week, U.S. officials lamented the current state of affairs in Yemen,
as they reviewed the grim consequences of the war.

Sarah Charles, an official at the U.S. Agency for International
Development, told Congress that nearly 400,000 people have died in the
war, mostly as a result of hunger, sickness, and inadequate health
care.

“Children are the primary victims of this war,” she said.

U.S. Special Envoy Timothy Lenderking reviewed the extent of Houthi
advances, noting that their military forces number in the hundreds of
thousands. A significant development, he continued, is that the
Houthis have formed closer relations with Iran, which initially
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little to do with the conflict. “At the start of the conflict eight
years ago,” he said, “Iran was not as close to the Houthis as it
has become.”

According to Lenderking, about 40 Iranian advisers are now on the
ground in Yemen helping the Houthis develop skills to assemble and
launch missiles against both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab
Emirates. “With Iranian help, the Houthis have developed an
increasingly precise capability so that they can launch complex
attacks,” he said.

A major turning point in the war came earlier this year when the
Houthis were on the verge of a military victory in Marib, the
Saudi-backed government’s last stronghold in the north. Although the
Saudi-led coalition managed to push
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Houthis back with airstrikes and a ground campaign, it faced
extensive retaliation
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with Houthi forces firing missiles into Saudi Arabia and the United
Arab Emirates.

Amid the battle for Marib, Saudi officials began running out of
stockpiles of defensive missiles, creating fears
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they would be defenseless against future attacks.

“The Houthis have won the war in Yemen,” Bruce Riedel, a former
CIA analyst, reported
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the time for the Brookings Institution, where he has been writing
about the war as a senior fellow.

Within this context, U.S. officials threw their support behind
the UN-brokered truce
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which required an end to cross-border attacks. With both sides taking
steps to reduce hostilities, U.S. officials began framing the truce as
a basis for ending the war.

“The truce reflects the balance of power on the ground,”
Riedel wrote
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April, shortly after the truce went into effect. The Houthis
“control Sanaa and most of northern Yemen; they are on balance the
victors.”

The truce has brought several benefits to the people of Yemen. Since
its implementation in April, civilian casualties have sharply
declined
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More people have received humanitarian assistance. Despite the fact
that the truce lapsed in October, several of its main elements remain
in place, including a major reduction in hostilities.

It remains unclear whether the Biden administration has been using the
truce to buy time for the Saudi-led coalition or establish a
foundation for ending the war. Reportedly, the administration has
been reconsidering
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ban on sales of offensive weapons to Saudi Arabia. Its sense
of betrayal
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the Saudi regime over an alleged deal on oil production may stall
future cooperation, however.

C
[[link removed]]ongressional
opposition
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more U.S. arms sales to Saudi Arabia may tie the administration’s
hands. Congress could invoke the War Powers Resolution
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end U.S. involvement in the war, leaving the Saudi regime with no
option but maintaining the truce and working toward a negotiated
settlement.

“As we look forward, we want to get back into the truce,”
Lenderking insisted at last week’s hearing. “There are important
back-channel conversations that are happening between the parties that
are helpful to this process. But… we are not there yet.”

_EDWARD HUNT writes about war and empire. He has a PhD in American
Studies from the College of William & Mary._

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* Yemen
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* Saudi Arabia
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* United States
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* Civil War
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* United Nations
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* war
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* war crimes
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