[ Republicans may not have enjoyed big victories like many
expected in the 2022 midterm elections, but the predicted "red wave"
did materialize in at least one critical arena: Southern state
legislatures.]
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ONE PLACE THE ‘RED WAVE’ ARRIVED IN 2022: SOUTHERN LEGISLATURES
 
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Chris Kromm
December 2, 2022
Facing South
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_ Republicans may not have enjoyed big victories like many expected
in the 2022 midterm elections, but the predicted "red wave" did
materialize in at least one critical arena: Southern state
legislatures. _

Although Democrats did better than expected in the 2022 midterms,
Republicans gained about 55 seats in Southern state legislatures,
strengthening their ability to drive policy in the region., (Map from
the National Conference of State Legislatures.)

 

More than 1,500 of the South's 2,053 state house and senate seats were
up for election this year. While Democrats exceeded expectations in
federal contests — holding a majority in the U.S. Senate, losing
fewer contests than expected in the U.S. House — Southern
legislatures continued their lurch to the right
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With six races still too close to call as of this writing, Southern
Republicans have gained about 55 legislative seats in 2022. That's an
even bigger setback for Democrats than many pundits had anticipated
heading into the elections. For example, the Virginia-based political
forecasting group CNalysis projected this summer that Republicans
would gain just over 40 seats
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the South.

Republican legislative gains in the South are all the more striking
given that Democrats gained ground in other states
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flipping chambers in Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania.

But in the South, the GOP strengthened its hand in chambers it already
dominates. Just as they did coming into the elections, Republicans
hold majorities in all of the South's 26 legislative chambers save
one: the Virginia Senate, where Democrats cling to a narrow 21-19
majority. The Virginia General Assembly will hold its elections in
2023.
 

In four chambers, Republicans added to their power by creating
supermajorities which, in some cases, can override a governor's veto:
the House and Senate in Florida, and the Senate in both North and
South Carolina.

Small victories, sizable losses

Southern Democrats can point to a couple modest victories. In Georgia,
state Democrats were buoyed by the party's big investments in voter
turnout for the state's high-profile U.S. Senate and governor races.
Democrats continued the gradual gains they've made over the last
decade, picking up two seats in the state House and one in the Senate.

In North Carolina, Republicans gained two seats to win a supermajority
in the state Senate, but they are projected to fall one seat short of
a supermajority in the House. That preserves the ability of Democratic
Gov. Roy Cooper to veto bills coming out of the General Assembly,
including proposed abortion and voting restrictions.

But in most Southern states, Democrats saw their numbers continue a
slide that began a dozen years ago. In 2010, Democrats controlled 14
house and senate chambers
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the South. Thanks to a well-funded effort
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the GOP seized control of many legislatures in the 2010 elections,
allowing them to implement aggressive gerrymanders
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lock in control for a decade. Republicans repeated those victories in
2020
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ensuring another set of favorable districts
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In a handful of cases, the Democrats' 2022 losses were so significant
that they effectively sideline the party as a force in state
policymaking. In Florida, Republicans picked up a total of 13 seats
between the state House and Senate, winning supermajorities in both.
That, combined with Republican Ron DeSantis' 19-point landslide
victory in the Florida governor race, make the state an increasingly
difficult place for Democrats to contest for power.

"Florida Democrats were one of the few state parties where our
forecasts overestimated Democratic odds this year," political
forecaster Charles "Chaz" Nuttycombe told Facing South. His group,
CNalysis, had projected earlier this year that Republicans would pick
up only four to five legislative seats in Florida.

In Kentucky, Democrats lost a combined six seats, leaving them with
only 26 out of 138 members in the upper and lower chambers. In West
Virginia, a once-competitive state, Democrats lost 16 seats — in
part due to the state's move to single-member districts
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leaving the party with 15 lawmakers in the 134-member legislature.

Fair maps and a road forward

Democrats and voting rights groups are litigating several of the
GOP-friendly maps in the South. But with conservatives enjoying
majorities on Southern state supreme courts and the Supreme Court of
the United States, there's not much optimism the Republican
gerrymanders will change. After the 2022 elections, the U.S. Supreme
Court dismissed a challenge to legislative maps in Texas
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which voting rights advocates said was an illegal racial gerrymander.

It wasn't just the maps, though. An analysis by the New York Times
found that the 2022 turnout rate for Black voters was 26% lower
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for white voters in Georgia, Louisiana, and North Carolina. That was
the biggest discrepancy by far in the three states over the 14 years
analyzed by the paper.

Whether this was due to voting restrictions, limitations in Democratic
voter turnout, or other factors, Nuttycombe at CNalysis said that
"Black turnout plummeting" was a key reason for Republicans making
gains in Southern state legislatures, "flipping a good amount of rural
seats in the Black Belt."

But progressives point to Georgia and Virginia as examples of how the
changing demographics of the South can — with the proper investments
in organizing and voter mobilization — steer Southern legislatures
in a new direction. Beginning in the 1990s, Virginia's General
Assembly was largely dominated by the GOP
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Democrats made a breakthrough in 2020; between the state House and
Senate, neither party enjoys a margin of more than three seats.

In Georgia, Democrats were able to overcome what the political
analysis website FiveThirtyEight labeled an "egregious"
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gerrymander of state legislative districts to continue making
incremental gains. While the Democrats' pickup of three seats in the
Georgia Senate and House isn't what they'd hoped for, it echoes the
playbook outlined by the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee
(DLCC) in a strategy memo
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this year. In a section titled, "Winning Competitive Districts in
Tough States," the DLCC writes: "Majorities are made one seat at a
time. We'll invest anywhere there's a competitive district to build
towards winning more majorities later in the decade."

_[CHRIS KROMM is executive director of the Institute for Southern
Studies and publisher of the Institute's online magazine, Facing South
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* 2022 Elections
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* South
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* state legislatures
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* GOP
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* Republican Party
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* Democratic Party
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* Gerrymandering
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* voting rights
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* Voting Restrictions
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* Georgia
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