[ Reaction to the Republican Supreme Court’s attack on abortion
rights, drove high Democratic turnout, especially among women and
young voters, saw Democrats overperform polls in many places, just as
in summer special elections in New York and Alaska.]
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HOW THE WORKING FAMILIES PARTY HELPED THE DEMS DEFY GRAVITY  
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Joe Dinkin and Natalia Salgado
November 9, 2022
Medium
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_ Reaction to the Republican Supreme Court’s attack on abortion
rights, drove high Democratic turnout, especially among women and
young voters, saw Democrats overperform polls in many places, just as
in summer special elections in New York and Alaska. _

Newly elected members of Congress from Texas, Greg Casar (Texas-35)
and Jasmine Crockett (Texas-30), join the ranks of Working Families
Party members in the House of Representatives., Working Families Party
photos

 

One thing is certain: the red wave that most pundits predicted did not
materialize. Did we defy gravity
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At least a little.

Many races are still up in the air, and over the coming days and weeks
we’ll analyze the results. But we believe two factors kept the
midterms close:

* The reaction to the Republican Supreme Court’s attack on abortion
rights, which drove high Democratic turnout, especially among women
and young voters, and saw Democrats overperform polls in many places,
just as in summer special elections in New York and Alaska.
* The Democrats’ success at passing a legislative agenda: while
voters are feeling the impact of higher costs, Democrats could claim
credit as the party taking action to solve problems through the
Inflation Reduction Act; and Democrats could mobilize young voters
because of actually taking action on student debt. Both were very
popular measures.

National Democrats got some things right: the importance of abortion
rights, the need to remind voters of the GOP’s extremism and disdain
for democracy; and the need to actually deliver on material gains like
through the Inflation Recovery Act.

But national Democrats also made errors. From the beginning of this
cycle they were convinced that crime and policing was their main
vulnerability, despite polls showing it lagged in importance behind
the economy and abortion. Further, research consistently finds that
voters agree with progressives on many questions about public safety.
But in their desperation to distance themselves from progressives, too
many Democrats mirrored GOP talking points — a strategy that never
fails to fail. They also convinced themselves that progressive
candidates could not win in competitive races. Though key races remain
too close to call, we believe Democratic strategists’ panic over
this issue contributed to leaving votes on the table.

Getting right into it, here’s how WFP endorsed candidates did:

DEMOCRATS APPEAR POISED TO HOLD THE SENATE

This is a significant accomplishment for the party out of power. WFP
ran a major field mobilization in four crucial Senate battlegrounds.

PA: FETTERMAN — WIN!

* WFP ran one of the largest field campaigns in the state for
Fetterman. We knocked on 400,000 doors in Pennsylvania to drive
Democratic participation, focused on Philadelphia and other
communities of color. On Election Day, WFP held a 1,000-person phone
bank to cure ballots. Fetterman was heavily attacked for his
progressive criminal justice record. Picking up a state in a midterm
was always going to be tough, and we’re proud to have helped do it.

WI: BARNES TRAILS.

* Mandela Barnes is a WFP champion and founding member of the
Wisconsin WFP. We endorsed him the day he announced his campaign, and
helped him win his primary over several better funded rivals. When
smug pundits and consultants claimed Mandela could never win,
Democratic donors pulled back. Now, Mandela trails incumbent
insurrectionist Republican Ron Johnson in what was clearly a winnable
race.
* This should be a wakeup call. In the crucial weeks after
Mandela’s primary win, Republican super PACs dumped millions into
negative ads against Barnes to define him. They outspent Democrats in
that window by roughly 3–1 — and that lopsided spending was
tremendously damaging. If more major national donors had stepped up to
keep the spending closer to even and attacked Ron Johnson’s huge
liabilities, they could have helped us change history.

AZ+NV: LEAN DEM HOLD.

* Arizona was a WFP priority, where we focused a major grassroots
mobilization on turning out Democratic voters for a number of down
ballot races, including Maricopa DA, state legislative races and Corp
Commission. Those outcomes are mainly too close to call but helped
contribute to Senator Mark Kelly’s narrow lead, though the race
remains up in the air. (WFP did not run a Nevada program but Senator
Catherine Cortez Masto’s race seems too close to call at this
moment, though we believe the remaining ballots slightly favor her.)

GEORGIA: TO A RUNOFF.

* As in 2020, Raphael Warnock is headed to a run-off. And just like
two years ago, we’re going to bring everything we have to the race
to secure the win. But this time, the run-off is only four weeks away,
so we’re going to have to sprint into action. If the numbers in
Arizona and Nevada hold, Democrats retain the Senate majority even
without Georgia — however for WFP, the difference between 50 and 51
Democratic Senators is significant given the track record of Democrats
like Manchin and Sinema. One wildcard to watch for: if Trump announces
his Presidential campaign, that could supercharge turnout on both
sides, even without the Senate balance in play.

THE HOUSE MARGIN WILL BE CLOSE

Despite signs in their own polling, this isn’t an outcome most
forecasters foresaw: control of the House is still up in the air. The
most likely result is Republicans will hold a narrow and chaotic and
fractious majority, where MAGA extremists are likely to hold the
balance of power. Though make no mistake: a slim Republican majority
can still do real harm and we’re not about to rest easy.

Some takeaways:

SUMMER LEE: WFP SECURES A SIXTH WFP CHAMP.

* A perfect storm could have derailed SUMMER LEE: a Republican
candidate with the same name as the Democratic incumbent we had
defeated in the primary; a local Democratic party that was slow to
consolidate; millions spent attacking Summer on Pittsburgh broadcast
through the fall; and a late million dollars added by AIPAC’s Super
PAC. WFP made a final media buy
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coalition back together from the primary, in order to bring Democratic
voters home, and it worked.
* SUMMER LEE IS THE SIXTH WFP PRIMARY WINNER FOR THE CYCLE TO BE
HEADED TO CONGRESS, ALONG WITH GREG CASAR (TX-35), DELIA RAMIREZ
(IL-3), JASMINE CROCKETT (TX-30), MAXWELL FROST (FL-10) AND BECCA
BALINT (VT-AL), COMPRISING THE BIGGEST NEW CLASS OF WFP MEMBERS EVER
SENT TO CONGRESS.
* One final closing detail, Democrat Chris DeLuzio who is in a
neighboring toss-up district, PA-17, was hit with millions of dollars
in negative spending attacking him for his connection to Summer Lee,
also appears to be leading.

WFP PLAYS KEY ROLE IN BATTLEGROUND DISTRICTS.

* WFP supported progressives in a number of closely competitive
districts, most of which were labeled toss-ups or lean-Republican by
Election Day. These were the kind of seats we’d have to win to have
a hope of retaining a Democratic majority. At the moment, a number of
those WFP-endorsed candidates are narrowly leading, including PAT
RYAN (NY-18), where the WFP ballot line votes seem to be providing the
margin of victory; JAHANA HAYES (CT-5) where WFP hit Republican
George Logan’s record as a utility lobbyist
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(NM-2) where WFP coordinated a significant grassroots IE table;
and ANDREA SALINAS (OR-6) who won her primary with the support of
Oregon WFP over a candidate favored by both crypto-currency super PACs
and the House Majority PAC.
* WFP-endorsed incumbent progressive ANDY KIM (NJ-07) appears to
be leading by a healthy margin as does South Texas’ VICENTE
GONZALEZ (TX-34) where WFP engaged in some late TV spending jointly
for Gonzalez and Michelle Vallejo (TX-15), who share a media market.

NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC PACS HUNG PURPLE DISTRICT PROGRESSIVES OUT TO DRY.

* Fearing the worst, national Democratic PACs mainly focused their
firepower on incumbent defense. It’s an understandable strategy, but
it also meant abandoning some viable purple district progressives. In
Oregon’s fifth Congressional district, WFP’s Jamie McLeod-Skinner
defeated corporate Democrat Kurt Schrader in the primary. The race is
still too close to call. It’ll go down to the wire, as Jamie will
gain as ballots continue to come in, but we can’t say for sure if
it’ll be enough.
* But a close race itself is an impressive accomplishment, given the
Republican Congressional Leadership fund spent $6 million on TV in the
district, and the Democratic equivalent PAC walked away from the race
altogether down the stretch. WFP was the biggest spender for Jamie
over the final weeks, and we were outgunned about 10–1 on the IE
side.
* Schrader ran below the top of the ticket in 2020, but Jamie is
running significantly ahead of the top of the ticket in 2022. The
national environment is worse, with some Oregon-specific challenges as
well. But still: $6 million in national Democratic money couldn’t
save DCCC chair Sean Patrick Maloney, but could have meant the
difference for Jamie McLeod Skinner.

NEW YORK IS A SORE SPOT FOR DEMOCRATS…

* …but WFP kept it from being far worse. We see a number of
factors at play: first of all, the Cuomo-appointed judges who threw
out the Democratic redistricting plan late in the cycle and carved up
Democratic seats. Second, a number of Democratic retirements,
including an ill-advised run for Governor from Rep. Tom Suozzi who
departed NY-3, and Gov. Hochul’s selection of Antonio Delgado for
Lieutenant Governor, creating a vacancy in NY-19. Third, the chaos
created by DCCC chair Sean Patrick Maloney, abandoning the district he
represented to head for pastures he assumed were greener one district
south; and fourth, the overall weakness at the top of the ticket. More
on that topic below. Democrats trail in four competitive districts,
and though the final count could change in some of them, we’re not
confident.

WFP PLAYS A ROLE IN HOTLY CONTESTED GOVERNOR’S RACES

Both purple and blue states saw competitive Governor’s races.

THE xxxxxx IN WISCONSIN.

* WFP’s major field program helped turn out voters for Governor
Tony Evers. Holding that seat means retaining a veto against the
gerrymandered extreme Republican legislative majorities.

PENNSYLVANIA, ARIZONA, GEORGIA.

* Our major field program in PA was part of a healthy win for Gov.
Josh Shapiro over Trumpist Doug Mastriano. At this moment the results
in Arizona are up in the air, but if Democratic Secretary of State
Katie Hobbs holds onto her narrow lead over far-right TV personality
Kari Lake, our voter turnout program will have played a meaningful
role. We also invested significantly in Georgia, where WFP-endorsed
Stacey Abrams came up short.

 

WFP’S GOTV PROGRAM FILLS A KEY GAP IN NEW YORK.

* Governor Kathy Hochul became Governor in the wake of Cuomo’s
scandal. Last night she was elected in her own right, but with the
worst showing for a Democrat in a statewide race since 2002. The state
Democratic Party was nowhere to be found. The Kings County Democratic
Party — which should be turning out votes in the most Democratic
vote-rich part of the state — didn’t spend a penny
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At the same time Mayor Eric Adams has been using his bully pulpit to
fearmonger about crime in New York for almost two years now, but it
hasn’t made people feel safer; it’s only left them on edge. And it
effectively made him Lee Zeldin’s top surrogate
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pick up is that Democrats and Republicans agree that you can’t trust
Democrats. (And messages like Sean Patrick Maloney’s
advertising denouncing “defund the police”
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* WFP played a crucial role in turning out voters, especially young
voters, and Black and brown voters in New York City, as well as
mobilizing progressive elected officials to turn out their supporters
as well. In the end, Kathy Hochul will win by roughly 5% — a close
call in New York — and the votes on the WFP are virtually equal to
her margin of victory. WFP ALSO OUTPERFORMED BY ROUGHLY DOUBLE THE
NEW, HIGHER BALLOT-LINE THRESHOLD IMPOSED BY GOVERNOR CUOMO TO CRUSH
WFP.

OREGON’S LOOKING GOOD.

* One of the early signs that caused pundits to think Democrats were
in trouble nationwide was the tight Oregon Governor’s race; but the
race was actually tight because a corporate Democrat, Senator Betsy
Johnson, largely backed by corporate executives, was running as an
attempted spoiler. Oregon WFP came in with a late six figure ad buy
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Democrat Tina Kotek on TV and streaming platforms. If her narrow lead
holds up, Oregon WFP can be proud to have played a role in the
victory. (Hat tip to Way to Win: the ads derived from their excellent
message content this cycle.)

ATTACKS ON WFP IN CONNECTICUT FALL FLAT.

* 2022 in Connecticut was a rematch of the 2018 race where
WFP-endorsed Governor Ned Lamont defeated Republican candidate Bob
Stefanowski. This year, amidst the right-wing fear-mongering on public
safety, Stefanowski made attacking Lamont for accepting the WFP
endorsement a central part of his negative message. It was echoed in
swing races across the state. Despite the attacks and the tougher
national environment in 2022 compared to the Democratic wave year in
2018, Lamont appears to have outperformed his 2018 margin, expanding a
3 point win in 2018 to a roughly 12 point win in 2022. CTWFP seems
poised to reclaim Row C, the third ballot line, while the Independent
“Party,” that ran their own candidate for Governor, could lose
ballot access in the state.

MORE RESULTS

We’re still collecting results from all around the country and
we’ll have more to report and more analysis to come. But some
initial bright spots include:

* WFP-endorsed ballot initiatives win big, including FUNDING FOR
EARLY CHILDHOOD EDUCATION IN NEW MEXICO, a big victory in which WFP
played a central role, MARIJUANA LEGALIZATION IN MARYLAND,
and DEFENDING ABORTION RIGHTS IN MICHIGAN. The Michigan amendment in
particular also appears to have significantly driven Democratic
turnout, potentially leading to the first Democratic trifecta in the
state in a generation. (Not what you expect to see in a Republican
wave year!)
* WFP District Attorney and Sheriff candidates had a strong night
too: WFP-endorsed MARY MORIARTY is on track to win in Hennepin
County, MN; PAUL HEROUX has been called the winner for Sheriff in
Bristol County, MA; and JULIE GUNNIGLE in Maricopa County, AZ
appears to be holding onto a narrow lead, on the strength of her
pledge not to prosecute abortions.
* Many WFP-endorsed state legislative candidates running in tough
purple districts are in a strong position, including JAN HOCHADEL,
the president of AFT CT picking up a purple district in
Connecticut, BETSY COFFIA, a leader in We The People Michigan winning
a red district in Michigan, LORENA AUSTIN, who came through the WFP
Campaign Camp training program, currently in the lead in a purple
state house district in Arizona, and NABILAH ISLAM, a WFP progressive
who appears to have won a state senate seat in Gwinnet Couty,
Georgia. CAROLINE MENJIVAR and TINA MCKINNOR are two WFP state
legislative candidates who are currently leading centrist Democratic
rivals under CA’s top-two system.
* Though it will be a while before results are finalized,
WFP-endorsed candidate for Los Angeles Mayor KAREN BASS has an early
lead, which we expect to expand; and down ballot our WFP city council
slate looks strong as well.

Working Families Party [[link removed]]
77 Sands St. #6
Brooklyn, NY 11201

* 2022 Elections
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* WFP
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* Working Families Party
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* Democratic Party
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* young voters
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* Women
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* women voters
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* abortion rights
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* Inflation Reducation Act
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* Student Debt
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* Economy
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* Minimum Wage
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* Red Wave
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* Donald Trump
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* GOP
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* MAGA
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* democracy
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* Fascism
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* fascist threat
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* Pennsylvania
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* Wisconsin
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* texas
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* New York
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* Oregon
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* Arizona
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* Nevada
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* Georgia
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* Connecticut
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