Polls are about to close so I don't know anything yet. But I do know some things that I want to share regardless of the outcome tonight: we did the impossible.
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In three polls, starting in May and as recent as last week, we were within one point in each, essentially tied, and well within the margin of error. In the last one, we were out preforming the top-of-the-ticket Democrats by over 10-points. That, while nationally Democrats saw declining numbers as rising prices gripped the nation and voters looked for a party to blame.
By all accounts, there are between 15 and 20 more Democratic-leaning seats that will be tougher for us to win tonight than this one . It's a tough district, in a tough year, with tough national headwinds... yet still, we're in the fight.
I'm also doing this now, before polls close for one important reason: I don't want a W or a L to mask what we know we've already accomplished. Once the votes are counted the story will be about the outcome, but we shouldn't gloss over the bigger story of HOW we put such a tough race on the map, and how Democrats can win going forward.
In 2020 I took one of my first votes on COVID Liability Protections for small businesses. It was a classic Tallahassee battle between rich lawyers and big businesses. Look, I'm a small business owner and my ability to pay my teachers was based on my ability to have students coming in for tutoring. I was scared of what would happen to businesses, like mine, who would get sued if anyone got sick from the pandemic swirling around us. I feared for the larger economy, the jobs we were losing every day, and the wave of families already facing evictions... our economy in Florida was looking to head to a tailspin.
So I took a tough vote, against the majority of my own party. It would be the first of many and every political consultant I spoke with told me it was folly. "The business community will never support a Democrat," they said.
Well, I write to you now as the 2022 AIF Champion of Business and NFIB Guardian of Small Business (to say that's rare for a Democrat would be... an understatement). This is now, easily, the most expensive race in the state as industry has had my back every step of the way.
This isn't because they're "woke" but because petty grievance politics is bad for business, because our government deserves thoughtful and balanced leaders and not more automated "Republican soldiers," and because we ALL benefit from a state with a vibrant economy that lifts all of our boats.
I have hundreds of text messages like this one from Republican voters who also saw the same thing:
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Valery, and many like her, are my proof that there IS a path for Democrats to fight back. We found the issues we agreed on and fought for them every day. We communicated our successes and the challenges not just during campaign season, but year-round. We earned votes authentically with hard work, a conversation, and a handshake at the door.
We stayed out of the fray, didn't take the bait, and fought every fight on every hill... we stayed thoughtful and disciplined and never forgot where our voters were. After all, 80% of us agree on 80% of things. We are all American. We all want freedom, great jobs, roads that work, and lower taxes. We all love our families, want respect at work, and a safe place to go to bed. There is so much more that unites us than divides us.
I'll have more to say and proper thank you's after the campaign is over, but for now I still have a few more hours to wave signs before we celebrate a job well done at the Patio at Winthrop Liquors [[link removed]] tonight at 6 pm. So for now, I'll just close with this:
Whatever happens, we already won.
Andrew Learned
Candidate for Florida House (FL-59)
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