From the desk of Juan A. Rodriguez
12/30/2019 Campaign Status Report
Deputy Campaign Manager & Caucus Director
 

To: Patricia Ewing
Cc: Marianne 2020 Supporters 

I'm the ground reporting from Des Moines, Iowa, now 35 days until the Iowa caucuses on February 3rd.

I have some encouraging and material reports from official and off-the-record conversations with pollsters, reporters, and other campaign leaders.

• Among 12 candidates on the ballot in Iowa, Marianne is not in a coveted top 4 position. HOWEVER, she is gaining ground toward the middle in multiple counties. I speculate that she will rank higher in multiple caucuses and counties than the polling/media establishment currently reflects.

• We must remind voters that polls are not votes and that this election doesn’t really begin until Iowa voters caucus on February 3rd, when everything becomes real. Our supporters here know that.

• Marianne needs very strong turnout at all caucuses. In 2016, 1/3rd of Iowans caucused. If we can mobilize Marianne supporters among the other 2/3rds, the non-traditional, first-time caucus-goers, we can alter our trajectory. We know that’s possible, and we know Marianne’s supporters are awake, aligned, and ready to mobilize.

• Hillary’s supporters will largely support Biden, and Bernie still maintains about 30% support here from his 2016 base. That still leaves a very large, open pool of voters in which some candidates can still emerge.

• While any top-tier candidate who doesn’t place in the top 4 statewide will face their death knell, Marianne placing near or inside of the top 4 in any county will lead to a surge in press, polling and fundraising. That’s what we need.

• It’s likely that Yang, Castro, Booker and Gabbard supporters will support Marianne in caucus precincts where their candidates don’t reach the 15% threshold. Getting over 15% in a precinct means getting delegates to the convention.

I hope that you find this report as encouraging as I do, and that—while arduous—we still have a pathway forward and to victory. Please share this report with our supporters as they will also appreciate what I’m gathering on the ground here in Iowa.

~Juan
Deputy Campaign Manager & Caucus Director
Marianne Williamson for President
 

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