Friend,

One of the most common questions we get whenever we do a survey or put out a call for podcast questions is a variation on “Give me some hope here!”

For months, everyone at The Lincoln Project has repeated the same thing: If we can show voters the truth about the crazy, and if we do the work, we really can win. But the question remains because most of the media continues to predict all kinds of doom and gloom.

I really do believe we have reasons for optimism. The Senate continues to look better. We have work to do with state gubernatorial races but we can win them. And even the House - yes, the House - is in play. 

We have to do the work, though. Just this month we’ve targeted Trump with a message that clearly riled him up (he attacked us on Truth Social right away) — and we aired digital ads with crucial messages aimed at Florida, Ohio, and Arizona voters about the fight we’re in. If you haven’t yet, now’s a great time to pitch in and help us keep up the momentum. >>

What momentum? Don’t just take my word for it. Look at the numbers. Dave Wasserman at the Cook Report points out results from Congressional special elections from the start of June. The commentary is mine:

CA22
2020 Election: Trump +5
6/7/22 Special Election: R +24
My take: Redistricting makes this an outlier.

TX34
2020 Election: Biden +4
6/14/22 Special Election: R +5
My take: This was not the wipeout many predicted with Biden’s approval ratings where they are - first sign of true decoupling.

- Dobbs Decision handed down on 6/24/22 -

NE01
2020 Election: Trump +11
6/28/22 Special Election: R+5
Red alert if you’re predicting a red wave… outperforming Trump by 6 in a very red district is a great sign.

MN01
2020 Election: Trump +10
8/9/22 Special Election: R+4
My take: 6 points better than Trump. Rinse and repeat.

NY19
2020 Election: Biden +2
8/23/22 Special Election:  D+2
My take: This one’s it. This is the bellwether. Biden won by 1.5 and it looks like we will win it by close to 3.

NY23
2020 Election: Trump +11
8/23/22 Special Election: R+7
My take: Likely going to be 6 or so - in a very red district.

Here’s why Cook and others continue revising their “red wave” predictions more to a “red mirage” — in every special election since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, Dem enthusiasm and turnout is off the charts. And the results are proving it. Even Nate Silver, whose model at 538 is also largely results-based, said just how important NY19 could prove to be:  

“A 2020-type performance is not a particularly high bar to clear for Dems, who had a meh year in races for Congress. But it would be enough for them to be clear favorites in the Senate, and maybe add a seat or two. And the House would be at least a toss-up, probably lean D”

That’s exactly what happened in New York. And here’s something else you may not know: There are 222 districts bluer than NY19. We need to hold 218 to hold the House.

That’s it. The numbers really are there. Yes, a lot can happen between now and Election Day. But the momentum is clear. Will you help us keep it going? 

I want to make one more point because it is an important one. Nate Silver got at this in a Twitter thread this week that is worth diving into. But he points out just how problematic Trump is even though he brings up turnout: “Trump attracts lots of low-propensity voters… that’s helpful in presidential years, but they may not vote much otherwise. And he creates lots of problems for the GOP, including a party that has somewhat given up on trying to win the center of the electorate.”

NY19 was critical for this reason. The Republican candidate was not MTG or Boebert. But voters saw that if he won, he’d be enabling them and the Jim Jordans of the House to go full on ultra-MAGA crazy. In a lot of ways, the ultra-MAGA candidates are poisoning even the other candidates who may be trying to hide it or mask how out there they are. We saw this in 2010 on a smaller scale. But now it’s out there and impossible to hide. It takes a while to sink in. But the ultra-MAGA poison might be the drag on the GOP that wins us this November.

There’s a long way to go. But — just looking at the numbers, I’d rather be us than them.

Thanks for keeping democracy in this fight.

-Joe Trippi

@JoeTrippi on Twitter