Dear Friend,

Since the November 2nd election, the County Board has been busy. I'll send an update on the October and November Board meetings later this week. Before I do, I want to provide an analysis of the Virginia election. So much is at stake for Arlington and our shared values in learning from the painful result we experienced on November 2nd.
Takis Karantonis won a Four Year Term
First, the good news. Takis Karantonis won reelection to the County Board and Mary Kadera was elected to the School Board. Takis has led on small business recovery, housing, and climate issues and I am looking forward to continuing to work with him over the next four years. Mary brings experience as a teacher and a commitment to accountability for educational outcomes that I believe will benefit our students, teachers, and schools. Read below for more of my thoughts on our schools and education.
Wendy Gooditis won in Loudoun, overcoming the trend across the Commonwealth.
In the Virginia House of Delegate races, we did so much good work to help Wendy Gooditis win, raising resources and knocking on doors. Wendy won by 800 votes, with turnout in her district higher than it had been in 2019 or 2017. Her campaign literature said she is committed to her constituents health and safety. I believe she won because she is so genuine and voters believe in her.
On to the painful realities we must face.
There are many reasons why we lost the Governor's race. The margin was 63,480, or 1.9% of the vote. To put that margin in context, if 31,741 people had changed their votes, Terry McAuliffe would have won.

Turning out the Democratic base, as compared with other Gubernatorial years, was not one of the reasons we lost.
* The overall number of votes that Terry McAuliffe received was 1,600,116. In the 2017 Governor's race, Ralph Northam received 1,408,818. So, Terry McAuliffe received more than 190K votes more than Ralph Northam. Turnout as a percentage of the electorate was 55% in 2021, a significant increase from turnout of 47% in 2017.

So, for a Gubernatorial year, Democrats turned out. But, to be clear, the turnout was significantly less than the 2020 Presidential turnout. Joe Biden won 2,413,568, with 75% turnout in 2020. Stated another way, turnout was 20% less as a percentage of Virginia voters than in 2020.
Read the Third Way's Analysis of the Election ([link removed])
Perhaps the best analysis I have seen is from the Third Way, a Democratic polling and analysis think tank.

Why did we lose? Joe Biden's low poll ratings and Congress's failure to pass the infrastructure bill are reasonable, partial explanations. Terry McAuliffe also emphasized what he did in his first term as Governor more than he should have as opposed to emphasizing what he planned to accomplish over the next four years. Neither of these factors fully explains the loss.

Terry McAuliffe's statement: “I don’t think parents should be telling schools what they should teach," was also a factor. The statement is simply not the right policy. My work for the Education Trust and the National Indian Education Association leads me to disagree with the statement. Yes, curriculum should not be dictated by an individual parent, but parents should have a say in their children's education.

I would hasten to add that I believe Terry ran hard and well under very difficult circumstances. Teddy Roosevelt's admonition that the credit goes to the woman or man in the arena more than the critic resonates with me with respect to this race.
Rural Voters ([link removed])
The margins that led to our loss in the Gubernatorial race do not appear to have been particularly worse in any region of the state--Fairfax, Prince William, Arlington, Loudoun and Alexandria all went for McAuliffe, but by lower margins than in 2017. And, as described above, rural voters provided part of the 60K margin of victory for Youngkin.

Rural voter turnout seems particularly relevant in the very painful loss of Joshua Coles from Fredericksburg, who we supported and knocked doors for. Loudoun in particular was more of the margin than the average, but not so much that the troubling conflicts at the School Board can fairly be identified as the biggest driver of the loss.
Arlington Election Results ([link removed])
Looking locally at Arlington's results, more than 95,000 voters turned out, a full 10K more voters than in the 2017 Gubernatorial election. Terry McAuliffe's margin of victory was down slightly--about 7% points less of a margin than in 2017. We did our job in turning out big, so that the total margin of victory in both races was 52K, validating that we did our job here in Arlington.
What Virginia Means for the Midterms in 2022 ([link removed])
Big picture, the illusion that we can focus exclusively on turnout to win is a myth. In Arlington and across the state, there are parents who are upset about our schools. I am neither a parent nor a teacher, nor a member of the School Board, so I approach education issues only with the knowledge and experience I earned as a teacher and a policy advocate.
NPR Segment: Education and Critical Race Theory ([link removed])
Critical race theory and education policy were linked in the 2021 election, but as Democrats and as a County Board member we and I must learn from the election in addition to being motivated by it. The above NPR segment is a 12 minute listen, but worthwhile. I believe it reveals what the Third Way analysis points out that both racist inaccuracies about critical race theory being taught in schools and concerns about schools being open and accountable contributed to voters changing sides in the 2021 election.
Micro-Targeting and Marginal Incremental Gains Matter ([link removed])
So what does this all mean?
We must learn from the 2021 election. Educational accountability is important and listening to those we disagree with is important. Perhaps better preparation might have led Terry McAuliffe to avoid the phrase, "I don't think parents should be telling schools what to teach." Perhaps that phrase was not dispositive. Perhaps Terry McAuliffe and all of us may have been exhausted from the campaign and the Presidential race last year. What is clear is that we must run all the way through the end of the election and not take any debate or moment until the polls close for granted. What is also clear is that we need to both work to increase turnout and to persuade voters that we have the best policies for the post-Trump Presidency elections in 2022.

We must both take responsibility as a community/society for our schools and individually take responsibility as taxpayers, parents, and teachers, and, in my case, as a County Board Member. Parents should have a say in their schools. For me as a County Board Member, I must collaborate with our schools and the School Board, while fully respecting the frustration many parents feel.

That's the work I will be engaging in. We must be determined to never to repeat this loss and to win the 2022 midterms. That work starts now. Because winning elections matters for the ideals we cherish and Arlington's future.

Serving you with a determined heart,

Matt

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