Tuesday night the political world was stunned by the victory of Glenn Youngkin as the next governor of Virginia. Youngkin is a Republican who won a state that Joe Biden had won by 10 points just 12 months earlier.
There are a number of takeaways. First, the political climate seems very negative for Democrats nationally. In New Jersey, a state that Biden won by 16 points, the governor’s race was neck-and-neck. Biden’s current approval rating hovers around 43% with 71% of Americans recently saying that America is on the wrong track. The enthusiasm among Democratic voters in VA was low, despite Obama, Biden, Harris and virtually every other Democratic luminary showing up in Virginia to rally the troops.
The likelihood of Republicans winning back the House of Representatives in 2022 seems like a near-certainty if the election were held today.
Second, the dominant messages from Democrats – defeat Trump and managing Covid – are no longer working. Terry McAuliffe tried to tie Youngkin to Trump, to little success. The American public is tired of hearing about Covid, and candidates can’t run on it any longer. Democrats need a positive agenda that they can point to that might excite people. The stalled infrastructure and reconciliation bills certainly didn’t help as they gave a sense of a party arguing with itself rather than delivering results.
Third, it pointed a path to a Republican future post-Trump. Glenn Youngkin reminds many of Mitt Romney – a buttoned-up private equity executive who came across as moderate in terms of personality and social views. Youngkin ran on education issues and curbing Democratic excesses – and that was enough to eat into the Democratic margin in suburbs. Rural voters flocked to Youngkin in huge numbers. A moderate Republican can retain the base while competing in swing districts, at least in Virginia.
The results in Virginia, most of all, pointed to the fragility of any electoral results and the low loyalty voters have even after casting their vote. Again, Virginia went to Biden by 10 points just months ago, and all of the signs have pointed to Virginia as a blue-leaning state as demographics have changed and suburbs expanded. Yet Youngkin won. The pendulum will keep swinging back and forth while people get more and more fed up.
I can see very clearly the path to 2022 and 2024. After that, it’s not clear what happens, because one of the products of this dynamic is that people grow more and more dispirited.
A friend said to me, “The Democrats’ main emotional appeal seems to be fear. But you can’t be afraid all of the time. It wears off.”
That’s as good a lesson as any to take from Virginia.
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