Friend, with the Virginia race right around the corner I thought it would be a good time to share some thoughts about the nature of the moment we face.

On a macro level, 2021 has been a great year for Republicans so far. Their party’s position has hardened into full-on conspiracy theories. They are getting more extreme by the day. Why is that?

They think they’re going to win.

Remember this stat. Three times out of 120. That’s the number of times an incumbent party has gained seats in Congress. The historical headwinds for Democrats are very, very strong. Coupling that with a built-in advantage via redistricting - many projections have the Republicans gaining seven to 15 seats just because of how the maps will be drawn – you can see why the Republicans are confident.

What this means for us and the fight we are in for democracy is that this is going to be a very targeted, district by district fight to hold a very narrow majority.

The real threat is the meaning 2022 has for 2024. The next Congress is the one that will certify the election results. And with the GOP purging anyone with the conscience to actually count votes the way they were cast, this gives Trump a huge advantage should he decide to run. His movement is growing and his message is being replicated from school boards to Governors. 

2024 has already taken on a much larger meaning. Even if Trump goes through with it and runs, the election isn’t just about Trump anymore. Yes, 2020 was all about Trump. But by 2024 we will have four full years to understand and absorb the totality of what the authoritarian movement he has created is trying to do. It is no longer about one candidate. It is about us as a society.

Do we want to take a hard turn toward authoritarianism or do we want to stand for democracy? 

That is the fundamental question and why we are fighting so hard. We can’t win this without you. Please help The Lincoln Project gear up to hold the majority in 2022 and stop Trump and authoritarianism in 2024. >>

My colleagues will have more information for you about how and where we are fighting. But on a very basic level, our strategy has always been simple: disrupt, distract, and disable our opponents by fighting in the right place at the right time. You all know how effective we have been.

Even in a difficult 2021 for Democrats we have proven our outsized impact. Your support has helped us hold giant corporations to account. Powerful governors like Greg Abbott and Ron DeSantis are weaker – even vulnerable – because of what we have done. And the rift in the Republican Party continues to grow because of our audience of one strategy. Distract, disrupt, and ultimately disable.

My theory of how this is all shaping out boils down to thinking of this as looking at a big field. If you look at it from a surface level, it looks like one contiguous field. But if you get closer and look over the top of it, it’s pockmarked by narrow holes. 

That is how the media has been covering what’s happening. Moment by moment. Occasionally they get it right and it is contextually appropriate. But most of the time, they are missing the thread.

But those holes are not in a vacuum. They are a confluence of events moving downstream. And looking at the individual moments, the media is losing the connection, the ability to observe the distance traveled from Point A to Point B.

So Youngkin lying about being a Trumpist is one of these points. Trump tripling down on the Big Lie is another. The 147 members of Congress who voted against Biden’s certification – who have been exposed as helping to plan the insurrection of January 6th – another data point. 

When you connect the dots it is all leading up to one conclusion. 2024 will be our nation’s choice: authoritarianism or democracy? 

We all have our roles to play in this fight. Democrats have their candidates who have to win. Joe Biden has to effectively govern to give this whole thing a chance. And we – you and me and everyone at The Lincoln Project – have very specific battles to engage in. We must continue to disrupt and engage at the right moment. We know it works. 

When last I wrote you, I had mentioned we created a special fund to help fight the battles that need to be fought to win in 2022. That fund is well over half a million dollars in less than two months. When you combine that with the totality of what The Lincoln Project is going to do, it is going to have an outsized impact on several races. But our work is just getting started.

Please contribute now to make sure that we can win in not just a few races but dozens, increase our margins in the Senate and hold the House. 

I still believe that though this fight is difficult, we can win it. Our asymmetric strategy is key to victory. When you are outnumbered, you have to get creative. Think outside the box. For example, somehow an incumbent Republican governor in Texas with $60 million in the bank is floundering. Why is that? That’s The Lincoln Project effect.

This Thursday, Stuart Stevens and I will share more of our thoughts on the moment and the fight. I hope you can join us. Until then, I leave you with this question.

Who else can and will do what we can do?

– Steve