Top Lines: 2020 Elections | Tariffs and Trade | US Economy | Immigration and the Border | Protecting US Elections | Patriotism & Optimism

Notes On 2020 – In the crush of daily news, we shouldn't lose sight of two important moments in the past week. First, we learned that Russia had resumed its efforts to undermine our democracy and had launched a major social media campaign to denigrate Vice President Biden. It still boggles the mind that this reprise of 2016 has happened without much comment, or action, from the US government; and rather than condemning Russia for the resumption of these active measures, on Wednesday Trump rewarded Putin with Syria, an entire country. The second moment came in Trump’s presser yesterday when he jaw-droppingly thanked Russia far more profusely for helping capture Baghdadi than those who actually helped the US - the Kurds of Syria and Iraq.

Wherever one looks now one sees the US aligned or partnering with Russia, almost always against what had been stated US interests – Syria, Ukraine, Iran, Brexit, EU/NATO, climate change, Venezuela, Cuba, Open Skies and INF treaties, interfering in US elections, and Trump’s broader campaign to normalize authoritarianism here and abroad (did we forget something?) It is as if Putin and Trump have forged a secret alliance, and that Speaker Pelosi was right to share her concern that all of Trump’s roads seem to lead to Putin.

What all this means for the 2020 debate is that it is vital for Democrats to start articulating what we are going to do to untangle the US from Russia in the coming years, and roll back its spirited insurgency against the West. There is perhaps no greater foreign (or even domestic) policy challenge now, and all of us should aid our leaders in the months ahead to help them tackle the budding Trump-Putin alliance head on.

The polling has been very noisy on both sides in the past week. Trump has dropped to one of the lowest places in his Presidency, and Dem polls are showing a lot of movement in various directions suggesting things are changing and evolving there. On Friday, Simon was quoted in the NYTimes about a clear, recent development on the Dem side – Mayor Pete’s improving position: “How much Buttigieg can grow is one of the most interesting questions in the race right now,” Simon Rosenberg, a Democratic consultant and founder of the centrist New Democrat Network, said in a phone interview. If Mr. Buttigieg finishes strongly in the Iowa caucuses, Mr. Rosenberg added, he could make a play for the center lane of the Democratic electorate, establishing himself as a moderate alternative to Ms. Warren and a more youthful centrist pick than Mr. Biden, who is 76. “What’s important is that he’s demonstrated a capacity to do it already, by getting into clear double digits in Iowa,” Mr. Rosenberg said. “In a place that has to make up their mind first, he has been able to put himself in play.”

Trump's Trade "Deal" With China Already Disappoints As The Economy Deteriorates – When Trump proclaimed a "very significant phase one trade deal" with China two weeks ago, NDN was immediately skeptical that the tentative agreement was anything other than a gift to China. The "deal" completely ignored structural reforms on intellectual property theft, forced technology transfers, and industrial subsidies that were the entire point of the trade war to begin with, and the agricultural purchases announced were far smaller than the annual loss in US exports caused by the trade war. A few weeks later, however, the deal looks even worse for the Administration. China immediately back-tracked on their promised agricultural purchases, halving their announced level from $40 billion to $20 billion, and continued negotiations planned over the next month make clear that no actual physical agreement was reached.

If the US is getting none of its core concerns addressed by China, and even its non-core demands are being significantly watered down, why has Trump continued to go along with this deal? Likely because the President has become concerned by the significantly weakening economy, and worries that an escalation in the trade war will cost him re-election in 2020 (arguments his top economic advisers made to him before the most recent negotiations). This month, a tranche of data has illustrated just how weak the economy has become. Industrial production in September declined month-over-month for the first time since November 2016 while business investment also fell to its lowest aggregate level in 15 months. Consumer spending, which had largely buffered the economy from recession risks this year, declined month-over-month for the first time since February, and average hourly earnings saw no growth for the first time since October 2017. It's no surprise then that the financial markets expect Q3 GDP to come in at just 1.6%, sharply lower than the sustainable 3% growth promised by the President. You can read more about NDN's work on trade and economic policy under the Trump administration here.

Coming To Terms With New Age Of “Moscow Rules” In US Politics - In a piece we published a few months ago, we decried the embrace by Trump and the GOP of what we call the “Moscow Rules” of politics – the bare knuckled use of all modern tactics such as fake identities, foreign collaboration, hacking, and classic disinformation in our domestic politics. Our fears were heightened when the FEC, the body in charge of policing our elections, was shut down by Trump and the Republicans in late August. And it is with that context that we consider Trump’s effort to invent a scandal against his leading opponent with the aid of a foreign nation – it is literally right out of Putin’s playbook.

Our own assessment of what we’ve seen so far is that our system isn’t really ready to handle this new era. The parties have not yet assumed the degree of responsibility that they will need to battle this new dystopian political world; even simple, easy bills to address these challenges have been blocked by Trump and McConnell; and the Biden campaign still remains remarkably flummoxed by an attack they had to know was coming. Trump’s dropping of $10m into bringing his imaginary scandal to television of course confirms the political nature of his pressure campaign on the Ukrainian President, providing further evidence that once again the President has broken US election laws; but bring it he has, and now all of us have to talk openly about what it is we are witnessing here, and what we can and should be doing about it. This isn’t politics as usual – it is Moscow Rules – and no one can or should be surprised at the ferocity in which it is being practiced by Trump and his party.

Of course, these tactics include the use of high-volume, often clearly fake accounts on Twitter. Our recent effort to build a database of the most influential of these accounts is now up to 302. Feel free to check it out here and review our broader set of recommendations about how to protect our democracy and discourse from foreign manipulation. As well, Simon weighs in on the struggle Democrats are having in responding to Trump’s attacks on Biden in this new Politico piece.

ICYMI – NDN has released proposals to protect our elections, reform US immigration laws, and counter Trump’s reckless protectionism. We’ve also proposed creating a new super department we call the Department of Jobs, Skills, and Economic Development to better target our efforts to ensure no one is left behind. We’ve marveled at the dramatic decline of the GOP’s prospects in the heavily Mexican-American part of the US, and just how much better Democrats have been in managing the US economy in a new age of globalization. We are advising Congress to go slow and be smart in how it reforms the Postal Service – reforms are needed but far more is going right than wrong these days.

We’ve also written a great deal about Trump and his contempt for democracy and the liberal order America has imagined and built. We’ve challenged the conventional wisdom to stop downplaying the enormity of the Russian attack on our system, recognize that Trump is more like Maduro than almost any politician in the West, understand the European elections as a direct repudiation of Trumpism/illiberalism, and acknowledge that America First has become an extraordinary governing and political failure. After repeated mass shootings and the rise of dangerous domestic terrorism, we think the Democrats should make this fall about keeping America and Americans safe.

Recent NDN Media Citations – You can find us in these recent stories: ABC/FiveThirtyEight, AP (here, here, here), Atlantic, CNN (article, TV), Financial Times, MSNBC, NBC News, New York Times, Politico, Real Clear Politics, San Antonio Express-News, Slate, Telemundo, Time Magazine, USA Today, Washington Monthly, and the Washington Post (here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here). Simon offers extensive remarks about the 2020 Democratic Primary in this recent Ron Brownstein Atlantic piece - we think it is well worth your time.

You can also catch Simon in extended interviews on politics and disinformation in this new Future State podcast hosted by Dick Clarke, on Democrats and immigration in this Slate podcast hosted by Univision’s Leon Krauze, and in Fernand Amandi’s new Strange Days podcast on why Democrats need to go big and make their indictment of Trump far more than about “obstruction.”

Support Our Far-Sighted Work Today – We know there are many calls on your giving, but please consider donating to NDN today. Whatever amount - $5, $25, $100 – it all helps us keep the ideas and insights coming.

Best,

Simon, Chris, and the rest of the NDN team



-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Contributions or gifts to NDN are not deductible for federal tax purposes. Contributions of gifts to The New Policy Institute are tax-deductible. |
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
800 Maine Avenue SW, Suite 200

Washington, DC 20024

www.ndn.org @NDN_NPI

If you believe you received this message in error or wish to no longer receive email from us, please [link removed].