MEMORANDUM

TO: John
FROM: Mike Madrid

SUBJ: What to watch tonight.

Are you ready, John?

 

All of the work we’ve put in together will reveal itself tonight, and in the hours and days to come.

I’m feeling confident. 

A historic, unprecedented coalition of patriots will serve the worst president in history an eviction notice. 

We are so close to restoring honor, decency, and honesty to the White House.

Here’s what I’m watching for tonight:

FLORIDA
Florida—as with every election—is among the most valuable prizes on the map, and among the earliest to report. We should have a result from Florida tonight or in the early hours tomorrow.

Here’s the thing to remember about Florida: it’s a must-win for Trump—it’s not as critical for Biden. If Florida is called for Biden tonight, that’s an almost-sure sign that our country will be turning the page. If Florida goes the president’s way, there are a number of other routes to 270 for Biden.

NORTH CAROLINA & ARIZONA
North Carolina and Arizona are also must-wins for Trump that we should have pretty conclusive calls for by the end of the night. 

Trump’s path to victory is more-or-less by winning the same map he did in 2016. North Carolina and Arizona together count for 26 electoral votes that Trump can’t afford to lose. Either being called for Biden is a great sign.

UPPER MIDWEST
All eyes are, of course, on the upper Midwest, where Trump broke through the “Blue Wall” four years ago. 

Pennsylvania could not have a more apt nickname—the Keystone state. This is the closest to a must-win for both candidates. 

It seems unlikely, though, that we’ll know a final count in Pennsylvania for perhaps several days. 

Do not be discouraged if results show Trump ahead on election night in Pennsylvania—absentee ballots, which will be counted in the days to come, are overwhelmingly in Biden’s favor.

Wisconsin, I believe we will have a result sometime Wednesday. Michigan could take a bit more time. Biden looks probable to flip these states—and if he does, 270 will likely be out of reach for the president.

SUNBELT
Finally, I’m looking at Georgia and Texas. These states should be able to count their ballots relatively fast. Both are in play for Biden—needless to say, Texas turning on Trump would signal a colossal shift in the electoral map, and a resounding defeat for the president, Trumpism, and the Republican Party.

John, I’m sure there will be surprises tonight. And this week could be a tumultuous time for our country. We must stay focused and vigilant—and please know, John, that The Lincoln Project is ready to do whatever it takes to defend and preserve our democracy against any and all attacks.

This time tomorrow, I hope to be celebrating a new chapter for our country, and the relegation of Trump to history's dustbin of losers. 

I’m so glad to be standing next to you in these defining moments.

— Mike

If you don't want to hear from us any more, you can always unsubscribe.