With 6 days to Election Day 2020, here's the news that you'll want to know:

(1) "Don't believe the polls — Trump is winning"

(2) AOC: "I don't know if I'm really going to be staying in the House forever"

(3) more than 69 million votes cast already -- which is more than half of all votes cast in 2016

Two writers analyze the polls; bottom line: "Don't believe the polls -- Trump is winning."

"We predict that President Trump is going to win the 2020 presidential election — and win big. While the majority of the polls suggest that Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden is leading, or at best that it’s close, those polls suffer from at least three problems." (Jonathan Jakubowski & Christos A. Makridis in The Hill)

• What's happening: In a new piece out today on The Hill, two writers make the case that President Trump is likely to win. They argue that the current polls showing a Biden lead don't account for:

-- "shy" Trump voters (though they don't call it that): due to "cancel culture" and the left's anti-Trump intensity, people don't want to say they're voting for President Trump

-- small sample sizes and under-sampling Trump supporters

-- underlying realities: as they note, 56% of people in a recent Gallup poll say they're "better off than they were four years ago, which is striking given that we are in the midst of a pandemic with a recovering labor market and deepening political polarization"

• What's at stake: First, political pundits and media figures seem less eager to "call" the election for either candidate as memories of how wrong they got it in 2016 still loom large.

Remember: at this time last year, the media was reporting that Hillary Clinton was all but certain to win the presidency. The New York Times gave her an 85% chance to win. The day before the 2016 election, Reuters reported it was actually a 90% chance of victory.

And we know how 2016 turned out.

So arguments that the polls have it wrong (again!) could certainly be right.

Second, although this isn't the main focus of The Hill piece, we'd re-emphasize that although national polls show Biden with a lead over President Trump, that same momentum doesn't flow down to battleground states.

Biden's polling lead in Florida and Pennsylvania was "effectively halved" in mid-October, and we think those will be critical states in the 2020 election.

Plus, all fall, Biden has faced news stories about how he's "struggling" in Florida. Erstwhile Democratic presidential candidate Michael Bloomberg is now reportedly $100 million in the state in support of Biden. That's not actually a sign of confidence.

AOC: "I don't know if I'm really going to be staying in the House forever."

"'I don’t know if I’m really going to be staying in the House forever, or if I do stay in the House, what that would look like,' Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) told Vanity Fair in an interview for the magazine’s December cover story. “I don’t see myself really staying where I’m at for the rest of my life.'" (POLITICO)

• What's happening: In a new magazine feature piece, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) seemed to already be thinking about what's beyond her U.S. House seat -- which she's win for a second term -- saying: "I don’t know if I’m really going to be staying in the House forever, or if I do stay in the House, what that would look like. I don’t see myself really staying where I’m at for the rest of my life."

• What's at stake: First, in the long term, as POLITICO noted, that may indicate a variety of political paths ahead of her:

-- a primary challenge for one of New York's Senate seats (Sen. Schumer is up for re-election in 2022)

-- a position in a Biden Administration, if he wins next week

-- a presidential run as she's "one of the likeliest inheritors of Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders’ progressive coalition"

Second, in the short term, Rep. Ilhan Omar -- one of the "Squad" members along with AOC -- has indicated they'll be expecting the House to move far left if Biden becomes president.

As Axios reported: "Proposals like Medicare for All, the Green New Deal, enacting a $15 minimum wage (which Biden supports), and banning fracking are all top priorities for 'The Squad' if Biden wins."

More than 69 million votes cast already -- which is more than half of all votes cast in 2016 election.

"More than 69 million Americans have voted in the 2020 presidential election with one week to go until Election Day, according to U.S. Elections Project data released Tuesday afternoon. [...] Early voting in 2020 has now surpassed the 58 million mail-in or in-person early votes cast in 2016, based on Associated Press totals, and reached over 50% of the more than 136 million total ballots cast in the 2016 presidential election." (CNBC)

• What's happening: More than 69 million votes have been cast in the 2020 presidential election already. That milestone is 10 million more than early votes cast in 2016 (no surprise), and more than 50% of all votes cast in 2016.

• What's at stake: First, this makes it less likely that a last-minute news story will change voters' minds ... because so many have voted already. (Granted, the amount of Google searches for "can I change my vote" has reportedly seen a sharp increase.)

Second, this may be good news for how quickly the election results can be finalized.

Americans have known that this year, it's highly unlike we'll find out who won on election night. But if the amount of early voting is "spreading out the workload of election officials" -- as one expert quoted by CNBC said it may be -- then we may see a shorter delay than expected in receiving the final results from each state.