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With 54 days to Election Day 2020, here's the news that you'll want to know: (1) good news for President Trump's campaign in Pennsylvania and Florida
(2) Kamala Harris is the Democratic campaign trail star as Biden keeps light schedule
(3) how Facebook and Twitter will now handle election-related posts
Good signs for President Trump's campaign in critical swing states of Pennsylvania and Florida. "The GOP has added almost 198,000 registered voters to the books compared to this time four years ago, whereas Democrats have gained an extra 29,000. Though Democrats still outnumber Republicans by about 750,000 voters in the state, the GOP has seized on their uptick in party members as a sign that Trump is on track to win this critical Rust Belt swing state a second time." (POLITICO) • What's happening: Two news stories are out today that show good news for President Trump's re-election campaign in two critical swing states.
-- In Pennsylvania, Republicans have registered seven more times the voters than Democrats have since the last presidential election.
In 2016, President Trump won Pennsylvania by just 44,000 votes. President Obama had won it in 2012 by 5%.
-- In Florida, President Trump has found surprising support in Miami-Dade County, which is a large area that traditionally goes Democratic.
As one Democratic pollster explained to POLITICO: "There’s no path to victory for Trump in Miami-Dade, but there’s a path to manage Miami-Dade margins, which could allow Trump to carry Florida by minimizing his losses here."
• What's at stake: All forecasts for the 2020 presidential election come with a high degree of uncertainty: everything about the year is unusual; early, absentee, and mail-in voting are all expected to reach new levels; and polls have shown close margins.
But looking at the numbers on the ground, i.e. in the states, can give us a better sense of where the 2020 election truly is.
For the best run-down of how President Trump is performing in battleground states -- and how that differs from the mainstream media coverage -- check out this lengthy, well-researched piece from The Federalist.
Kamala Harris is the campaign trail star as Joe Biden keeps a light schedule. "Biden supporters may feel that the Trump camp’s attacks on Biden’s stamina, health, mental capacities, and ability to handle the physical challenges of the job are unfair. But when Biden is sticking to an exceptionally light schedule with minimal travel — even in crunch time — it is difficult to begrudge anyone wondering how Biden will handle the demands of one of the most difficult jobs in the world." (National Review) • What's happening: After Democratic complaints about Joe Biden's "basement campaign," he started to travel after Labor Day weekend. But his campaign schedule has remained remarkably empty, as he continues to duck both public appearances and the media.
• What's at stake: We think this reveals two things about the current Biden campaign strategy, neither of which seem beneficial in the long term.
(1) This isn't great prep for the presidential debate.
Biden hasn't faced substantive questions or much criticism since the early primary debates, and he really hasn't talked policy either. He hasn't even released a potential list of Supreme Court nominees, although President Trump did yesterday.
However, Biden will do a moderated townhall-style event on CNN next week, which will be his most high-profile event since the Democratic convention.
(2) Kamala Harris is now in the spotlight, as she has kept up with a busy campaign travel tempo.
That's good news for Democrats who want to see their presidential ticket in action.
But it reinforces a major criticism that President Trump and Republicans have made: although Biden has positioned himself as relatively moderate, the GOP says Harris and the progressive wing would have incredible influence in a Biden Administration.
Facebook and Twitter roll out new election-related content moderation rules. "Twitter said Thursday it will label or remove posts that prematurely declare victory in the upcoming U.S. election, making it the latest social media company to set out a plan for a prolonged vote count." (POLITICO) • What's happening: Twitter has announced a new set of moderation rules that don't mention President Trump but will highly likely only be applied to his account -- or his campaign's.
Given the likelihood of delayed election results, i.e. results not complete on Election Day in most states, Twitter has said it will "label or remove" posts that "prematurely declare victory."
• What's at stake: There are two items to note here.
(1) Ahead of the 2020 election, social media companies have started to moderate political content -- which they've avoided in recent years.
(2) The left's favorite conspiracy theory seems to be taking hold in Silicon Valley. Expect to see more from it in the media, too.
The left's argument is simultaneously that President Trump will dispute or disregard election results (this is the conspiracy theory) and that Joe Biden should neither concede, per Hillary Clinton's advice, nor avoid filing legal challenges, as his team of 600 lawyers suggests.
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