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THE AMERICAN LEFT IS MAKING STRIDES. BUT CAN THEY WIN IN NOVEMBER?  
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Ben Davis
August 6, 2026
The Guardian
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_ Building a mass left in the United States is a slow and bruising
process, and there is no single tipping point at which the party and
its voters suddenly become committed leftwing partisans. _

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The ideological struggle within the Democratic party continued on
Tuesday night with primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Virginia
and Washington. The results showed an increasingly intense conflict
within the party, with high Democratic primary turnout and bruising
ideological battles up and down the ballot.

The Democratic electorate is shifting, becoming more progressive and
more willing to challenge party leadership, but not as quickly or
uniformly as many assumed.

Progressives and socialists scored another round of victories, most
notably Abdul El-Sayed
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for Senate, but also downballot with Donavan McKinney and Will
Lawrence in congressional races, and in state legislative seats such
as Chris Gilmer-Hill in Detroit. But the scale and breadth of those
victories fell short of the expectations created by polling and media
coverage.

Abdul El-Sayed offers a template for Democrats to defeat Trumpism /
Peter Beinart
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A few key lessons have emerged. First, building a mass left in the
United States is a slow and bruising process, and there is no single
tipping point at which the party and its voters suddenly become
committed leftwing partisans.

Second, the left is nonetheless growing rapidly, able to win beyond
young, deep-blue urban areas where concerns about general-election
viability against Republicans
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limited, and across an entire statewide Democratic primary electorate
in a swing state.

This is a major step in the left’s development as an electoral
force. Third, the left’s next and most important challenge is
winning swing states and competitive seats against Republicans.

The left has enjoyed a string of notable electoral victories during
the second Trump administration, beginning with Zohran Mamdani
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in New York City, and continuing up through the 2026 primaries. The
Democratic electorate’s attitudes are changing: party leadership has
grown less popular, while democratic socialism has gained support. The
left has quickly gone from an extremely marginal force, with just a
handful of members of Congress, largely confined to deep-blue urban
districts and a small number of favorable constituencies, to a driving
force in the party. Much of the media coverage has portrayed the party
as being overtaken by an ascendant left. That broader narrative,
reinforced by favorable polling, created an expectation that El-Sayed
would win resoundingly.

In practice, the recent wave means that a meaningful additional share
of Democratic primary voters, perhaps 10-15%, is now willing to
consistently support left candidates, on top of the existing leftwing
base.

_Building a mass left in the United States is a slow and bruising
process, and there is no single tipping point at which the party and
its voters suddenly become committed leftwing partisans_

It does not mean that every candidate backed by the DSA or the broader
progressive movement will automatically win, or every Democrat backed
by Aipac will lose. The actual campaign still matters tremendously; a
large share of Democratic voters remain moderate, cross-pressured or
primarily candidate-driven.

Politics just doesn’t move that fast. The project of building a
leftwing base and turning it into a durable majority, even within the
Democratic party, is still a long-term one.

El-Sayed’s narrow victory has been described as disappointing,
because of favorable polling and the expectations created by the
recent wave of leftwing victories. It is anything but. The polling
miss has distorted how the result is being interpreted.

Viewed against Michigan’s demographics, the left’s previous
statewide performance, spending disparities, endorsements and
comparable results elsewhere in the country, the victory was
historically significant.

The left has not previously won a genuinely competitive statewide
Democratic primary of this kind, nor has a left candidate previously
assembled a winning primary coalition extending this far beyond the
movement’s urban base, especially in a swing state where voters are
likely to weigh general-election viability.

The left’s strategy over the past decade has been one of patience,
winning seats in friendly areas, knocking doors and slowly building a
base. It began by winning city council and state legislative victories
and expanded more recently into successful mayoral and congressional
races, all in deep blue areas.

This is the first time the left has real proof of concept that beyond
urban cores with friendly demographics, it can win over a majority of
Democratic voters. It also offers early evidence that a left candidate
could compete seriously in a Democratic presidential primary in 2028.

The next test is November. The left has been battle-tested in
primaries against moderate candidates, party institutions and
well-funded outside groups such as Aipac and the crypto lobby. But a
general election in a swing state is a different and less hospitable
terrain.

El-Sayed, along with Francesca Hong if she advances in Wisconsin,
needs to demonstrate the left can win not only a winning Democratic
primary coalition, but a broad enough general-election coalition to
prevail outside deep-blue territory. This matters in the near term,
for Democrats to win the Senate and retain governorships; in the
medium term, because presidential primary voters in 2028 will want
evidence that left candidates can win competitive general elections;
and in the long term, because the leftwing political project rests on
being able to twin and govern with durable electoral majorities.

On Tuesday, the left continued its string of victories, activating
young voters and bringing Arab and Muslim voters back into the
Democratic fold. But these victories do not resolve the movement’s
central challenges.

Every primary remains a brutal fight, highly contingent on candidates,
organization, spending and local conditions. And the movement must now
prepare for the more difficult terrain of November. The left is
increasingly winning within the Democratic party, but it still needs
to prove that it can build general-election coalitions capable of
defeating Republicans.

_Ben Davis works in political data in Washington DC. He worked on the
data team for the Bernie Sanders 2020 campaign and is an active member
of the Democratic Socialists of America._

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