The Vote
 

  

Here's what we know about Biden's VP announcement.

"Plans to unveil Biden's running mate choice are in place for whenever he is ready to announce. His campaign has encouraged supporters to sign up for text message alerts that they claim will be the first way people learn of the decision. Top aides continue to insist that a text message is the way that the world will first officially learn of the decision." (CBS News)

Read the full story on CBS News

• What's happening: Ten days after his own deadline -- and six days ahead of his convention -- we still don't know Joe Biden's VP pick. If you read between the lines, it sounds like no one else (yet) does either.

 

But here's what we think we know so far:

 

(1) The announcement will come today or tomorrow. The New York Times reported that "more Democrats" expect the news on Wednesday.

 

(2) We're waiting on Biden to decide. A campaign aide quoted in the CBS piece said it was "a pretty remarkable job" to keep the choice "fully under wraps," but we think it's more likely that Biden has kept delaying the decision ... day after day after day.

 

(3) Reporters have been watching flights to Delaware to try to glean hints -- which shows how uncertain this is. A flight in from South Bend, Indiana made people consider Pete Buttigieg, according to POLITICO, but there's no indication he's in the VP race.

 

• What's at stake: Besides the fact that this will determine a presidential running mate...

 

(1) Where the Democratic Party is going. There's a deep divide between the "establishment" Democrats and the progressives. The Trump campaign wants to show that Biden has gone as far left as Bernie Sanders; the VP pick will make or break that argument.

 

(2) If the left's enthusiasm gap closes. Political analysts have argued (and polls have shown!) there's a big enthusiasm gap between supporters of the Trump and Biden campaigns -- with Trump far ahead. A far-left VP pick could rally the progressive wing ... but also risks alienating general election voters.

 

And, just for fun, (3) how the media will spin this. No matter what, the media will spin this as a genius strategy from Biden. We can't wait to see some of the more ridiculous headlines. (Don't worry; we'll share the best with you!)

 

• What else to know: Although there's not yet a VP, the Biden campaign is already putting her future campaign staff in place. Two senior hires made the news today.

 

Also, an NBC news correspondent reporting from Delaware doesn't have VP pick news. But he does have daily photos or videos of a groundhog (yes, that's a reference to Groundhog Day). Seems like a fitting mascot for this part of the 2020 campaign.

The toughest challenge for the Squad will be decided today: Rep. Ilhan Omar's primary.

"Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez survived her primary. Rashida Tlaib did, too. Now it’s Ilhan Omar’s turn on Tuesday — and the Minnesota congresswoman faces the stiffest challenge of any member of the Squad." (POLITICO)

Read the full story on POLITICO

• What's happening: Five states have primaries today, but we're paying the most attention to Rep. Ilhan Omar's primary race in Minnesota.

 

Rep. Ilhan is a member of the Squad -- the nickname for four freshman Members of Congress, including Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) -- and she faces the most challenging re-election.

 

• What's at stake: Each Squad member's primary campaign has made the news. But Rep. Omar's is the toughest to call -- especially since she just lost her hometown newspaper's endorsement, according to the Washington Free Beacon.

 

There are two possible outcomes for her primary election (of course).

 

If Rep. Omar loses her primary re-election, it will be one of the few losses for far-left progressives in this primary cycle. It'll be the first sign of pushback from Democratic voters.

 

Or, if Rep. Omar wins, progressives will likely use it as proof of their mandate from the party voters as they head into the convention -- and stake out future legislative goals.

 

• What else to know: Two interesting notes about her campaign funds --

 

(1) Speaker Nancy Pelosi sent $14,000 to Rep. Omar's campaign in July. This is a normal move for Congressional leadership.

 

(2) Rep. Omar has spent more than $1 million with her husband's consulting firm in the 2020 election cycle, according to the Washington Free Beacon.

The Republican National Committee filed an emergency request with the Supreme Court about mail-in ballots that are scheduled to be sent tomorrow.

"The case involves several voting rights groups and Rhode Island officials. The RNC and the Republican Party of Rhode Island have asked for a decision before mail-in ballots are due to go out Aug. 12. Republicans are challenging moves to eliminate the state’s requirements for witness and notary requirements for voting by mail because of the coronavirus crisis." (Fox News)

Read the story from Fox News

• What's happening: SCOTUSBlog, which covers Supreme Court cases, explained the issue well. In summary:

 

(1) Rhode Island law usually requires that voters submitting a ballot by mail (i.e. voting absentee) sign the ballot in the presence of two witnesses or a notary.

 

(2) After a legal challenge from outside groups, the Rhode Island Secretary of State said the witness requirement would be dropped for upcoming elections due to COVID-19. That means you could mail in a ballot in the presidential election without following the normal rules.

 

(3) The Republican National Committee and the state GOP appealed the decision, now all the way up to the Supreme Court. Since the mail-in ballots are due out tomorrow, we assume a decision will come soon.

 

• What's at stake: The 2020 election. This case could remove a ballot integrity protection that the state (and its Democratic governor!) already had in place.

 

This decision sets the rules for Rhode Island and could be used as a legal precedent in other states -- and potentially affect what happens across the country.

 

The Republican National Committee and state GOP got their case all the way up to the Supreme Court based on a similar case from Alabama that the Court considered earlier this year.

 

• What else to know: This isn't just happening in Rhode Island. Outside groups have filed lawsuits in other states -- including, recently, in the key swing state of Ohio -- to drop or reduce existing ballot protection measures.

Federal Election Commission official warns there's a "substantial chance" we won't know the results on Election Day.

"There is a 'substantial chance' that the nation won't know on election night what the final results will be, even possibly for the presidential race, but 'that's OK,' as the vote will take time to count accurately, Ellen Weintraub, a commissioner on the Federal Election Commission, said Monday." (Newsmax)

Read the full story on Newsmax

• What's happening: State officials have said it, and now a commissioner of the Federal Election Commission -- who would certainly know! -- has told Americans there's a "substantial chance" we won't know the winner on Election Day.

 

That's due to the lengthier process of accepting, processing, and tabulating mail-in ballots, which are predicted to reach all-time high levels for modern politics due to COVID-19.

 

• What's at stake: A drawn-out process to learn the winner of the presidential election will be a challenge.

 

We don't know anything for sure, but we think there may be:

 

(1) A long legal battle as absentee ballots are tallied. Think Florida 2000 recount but in many more states. The Biden campaign has already built a network of 600 lawyers.

 

(2) A loud chorus from the media and the left (but we repeat ourselves) to have candidates prematurely concede and drop out of the race. We're going to guess they won't be rooting against Joe Biden. (Yes, that's understated sarcasm.)

 

A 24/7 news cycle without much actual news to report while mail-in (absentee) ballots are tediously aded up will have a lot of pundits and opinionators.

 

(3) No matter what ... it won't be boring! And you can count on The Vote to keep you updated with the news you want to know.

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