The rise of prediction markets over the last year has been impossible to ignore, with companies like Kalshi and Polymarket raising billions of dollars and traditional sports betting giants like DraftKings and FanDuel launching their own platforms.

But you won’t see any prediction-market commercials during Super Bowl LX between the Patriots and Seahawks on Feb. 8.

Prediction markets are among the list of “prohibited categories” for the Super Bowl, a source familiar with the matter tells Front Office Sports. Prediction-market commercials have not been allowed on NFL broadcasts all season; they were added to the list of categories the NFL forbids before the kickoff of the 2025 season, the source says.

Although the list of prohibited categories is not public, it’s known to include tobacco, pornography, firearms, and other controversial subjects. 

While the NHL and MLS have embraced prediction markets, the NFL has remained staunchly opposed. The league has expressed concerns about the integrity of the game, saying sports event contracts lack “safeguards” that regulated sports betting has, including “prohibitions on easily manipulated markets” and “official league data requirements.”

The Super Bowl is typically the most-watched TV event of the year. Last year, Fox said the game delivered an average of 127.7 million viewers across all platforms—a record for a single event in U.S. television history. Prices for 30-second ads during the game, which will be broadcast on NBC, have risen as high as $10 million this year. Last year, when the game was broadcast on Fox, roughly a dozen 30-second ad units sold for at least $8 million each.

Companies that have prediction-market platforms—like Kalshi, Polymarket, FanDuel, DraftKings, Coinbase, Robinhood, and more—can certainly afford to buy a Super Bowl ad. The operator of the New York Stock Exchange agreed in October to pour up to $2 billion into Polymarket, while Kalshi in early December announced $1 billion in new funding. DraftKings will have a Super Bowl ad of some kind, a person familiar with the matter tells FOS, and FanDuel will reportedly have an ad before the game. The other companies could buy Super Bowl spots to promote other aspects of their business but not prediction markets.

Notably, sports betting is not one of the prohibited categories, although the league is enforcing limits around the number of ads there will be—GamblingHarm.org reported that no more than six total sports betting ads will be allowed at this year’s Super Bowl.

Kalshi declined to comment on whether it sought a Super Bowl ad, and Polymarket did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Kalshi has a market allowing users to trade on “which brands will advertise during the Big Game 2026?” As of Thursday afternoon, volume for that market had risen to almost $1.2 million—the leading contenders were Pepsi, Liquid Death, and Him & Hers. Polymarket’s U.S. app does not have any markets for the NFL yet, but its international platform has markets on the NFL and the Super Bowl, as well as a market on “which companies will run ads during Super Bowl LX?” The volume on the latter market—more than $33,000—is a fraction of the Kalshi market. Leading the pack on Polymarket as of Thursday morning were ChatGPT parent OpenAI, Toyota, and State Farm.

Depending on where you live, it’s possible a prediction-market commercial could slip through during the broadcast. Local TV affiliates often have different commercials from the national broadcast. In 2012 and 2013, Old Milwaukee beer ads featuring Will Ferrell ran only in places like Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas. Last year, rapper Ye, formerly known as Kanye West, was able to get seemingly innocuous apparel ads aired on three stations owned and operated by Fox in Los Angeles, Philadelphia, and Atlanta, as well as a separately operated affiliate in St. Louis—shortly after the game ended. The website he promoted in the commercials changed from a full apparel shop to just a $20 swastika T-shirt.

It’s increasingly becoming downtown Kansas City or bust for a new Royals ballpark as two prominent options are now off the table. 

Officials in Clay County, Mo., located north of the city, said Wednesday they will no longer “engage in a bidding competition with other jurisdictions” regarding a potential ballpark deal. The move ends, at least for now, talks with the team that stretched for nearly three years. The county said the MLB club missed a Jan. 8 deadline to have a finalized proposal that would be ready to go before voters in an April ballot. 

“The Royals elected not to accept the county’s proposal within that timeframe. As a result, no proposal will be presented to the public for a vote,” said the seven-member Clay County Commission in a statement.

Meanwhile, the team has also abandoned a potential ballpark and mixed-use development across the state line in suburban Overland Park, Kansas. That decision follows a decision by Kansas officials not to continue talks with the club after Dec. 31, 2025. The mortgage for that land in Overland Park under consideration has been held by a Royals affiliate. 

“After significant evaluation, we do not believe this site meets our criteria for a stadium,” the Royals said in a statement. “We continue to evaluate opportunities throughout the Kansas City metropolitan area to create a world-class ballpark district. … We remain hard at work toward the best solution for our team, fans, partners, and community.”

What’s Next?

The Royals continue to press on, developing a new plan that would enable the franchise to leave Kauffman Stadium, their current home stadium, when their lease ends after the 2030 season.

As a result of the latest decisions, there is a renewed focus on possible site options in downtown Kansas City, even as that previously ran into political and neighborhood opposition. One potential option, however, remains Washington Square Park, located near the city’s famed Union Station. That locale has been favored by Kansas City Mayor Quinton Lucas.

Meanwhile, the Royals’ current neighbors in the Truman Sports Complex, the NFL’s Chiefs, have finalized their plan to move to Kansas and build a domed stadium. Progress continues on that project, and the Chiefs are down to two finalists to design the forthcoming facility. The football team’s forthcoming departure has also begun to galvanize city, county, and state leaders in Missouri who previously had been more divided regarding the Royals. 

Like many other teams, most recently the Rays, the Royals intend to surround a new ballpark with an expansive mixed-use development. Those efforts look to replicate the ongoing success of the Braves and The Battery in Atlanta.