In October, just after the second No Kings Day demonstrations, I interviewed Erica Chenoweth, author of Civil Resistance: What Everyone Needs to Know, a survey of nonviolent resistance movements across many nations. Chenoweth and other scholars have shown that civil resistance to authoritarian regimes can, under the right conditions, be extraordinarily effective.
But would it be capable of stopping Donald Trump and his MAGA regime? I will admit that, in October, I had my doubts. Granted, the No Kings Day marches were huge, spanning large and small cities, blue and red areas, young and old. But did this amount to a serious resistance, with a breadth and depth sufficient to counter Trump’s authoritarian putsch? In the course of my conversation with Chenoweth I aired my skepticism:
[The] question is about impact on the regime, whatever you want to call it. We’re somewhere in between where normal democratic elections are going to take place and this might move the votes a few points and color revolution against an autocrat.
A little background: a “color revolution” is a widely used term for the nonviolent uprisings that overthrew some of the autocratic regimes that emerged after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The most famous of these uprisings was the 2004 Orange Revolution that brought democracy to Ukraine. Ukrainian democracy has had its ups and downs since then, but it’s still standing — and still standing up to Russia’s brutal attempts at conquest.
Early in the second Trump administration it was clear that something like a color revolution was the only way to reverse the destruction of American democracy. Empowered by a corrupt Supreme Court that gave him blanket immunity and unconstitutional powers, fueled by a tidal wave of billionaire money, and abetted by a sycophantic Republican party, Trump was able to steamroll any opposition. Elites and elite institutions, from big corporations to law firms to many universities, capitulated without a fight.
And despite the massive turnout for the No Kings Day protests, it wasn’t clear if American patriots were tough enough, determined enough, to succeed where elites had failed. One day of marches at which the atmosphere was, if anything, festive, isn’t the same as the grim business of standing up to an autocratic regime, one willing to employ violence, on a sustained basis. Do Americans really have what it takes?
Yes, they do — in Minnesota and, I believe, in the rest of the country.
We’re fortunate that Trump is too impatient, too addicted to violence, to pursue the salami tactics Viktor Orban used in Hungary — slicing the institutions of democracy away gradually and insidiously until there was nothing left. Trump, instead, is trying to speedrun the process, shocking and aweing the nation into submission. The siege of Minneapolis was clearly meant as a show of force that would intimidate not just undocumented immigrants, but blue states as a whole and opponents in general. It was entirely predictable that innocent people would be dragged from their cars, beaten, pepper-sprayed in the eyes, and killed. Earlier this month Trump told the GREAT PEOPLE OF MINNESOTA that THE DAY OF RECKONING AND RETRIBUTION IS COMING. This is what that promise looks like in action.
However, MAGA has clearly been shocked by the way the people of Minnesota responded. Rather than rolling over in submission, ordinary citizens quickly organized highly effective resistance. Although they haven’t stopped ICE’s reign of terror, they have thrown a lot of sand in its gears.
They have also shown remarkable courage and selflessness. A week before Alex Pretti was executed at the hands of ICE, he suffered a broken rib in another protest. And he died trying to protect an innocent woman who was being brutalized. Nor was he alone in his courage and selflessness. As you watch the video of his murder, listen to all the whistles blowing, look at all the people who continued to film after multiple shots were fired.
Trumpists insist that the thousands of ordinary people opposing ICE in Minneapolis are all, as Trump has said, “paid professional agitators”. They must know how absurd their claim is. Yet behind the absurdity lies a genuine sense of bafflement. MAGA can’t understand the willingness of so many people to endure so much hardship and run so many risks out of a sense of civic duty and care for their fellow man. Surely, they think, there must be hidden paymasters and puppet masters coordinating the anti-ICE resistance.
But there aren’t. Ordinary Americans are braver and more determined than was dreamt of in their philosophy. As Adam Serwer writes,
Every social theory undergirding Trumpism has been broken on the steel of Minnesotan resolve. The multiracial community in Minneapolis was supposed to shatter. It did not. It held until Bovino was forced out of the Twin Cities with his long coat between his legs.
It’s important to understand that there is still much more work to be done and pain to endure. Running the loathsome Gregory Bovino out of town won’t end the siege of Minneapolis, let alone the ongoing attack on American democracy. Tom Homan, the “border czar” replacing Bovino, brings menace rather than conciliation. Earlier this month he told Fox News that he was pushing to create a database of protestors, which would be used for retribution:
We’re going to make them famous. We’re going to put their face on TV. We’re going to let their employers, in their neighborhoods, in their schools, know who these people are.
But given what has been happening in Minnesota, such intimidation would surely backfire. Imagine being a Minneapolis business owner who fired employees for joining peaceful protests. How well do you think that would sit with your customers?
In short, the news from Minnesota is horrifying but also hugely encouraging. Ordinary Americans are showing more strength, more resolve in defending our fundamental values, than almost anyone expected.
