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Last summer I wrote [ [link removed] ] about a long-simmering movement to have the Canadian province of Alberta secede from the rest of the country. I wrote at the time that the idea wasn’t as crazy as it sounds…Alberta accounts for most of Canada’s energy resources and production and also has significant mineral and rare earth reserves. The province is teeming with potential and freeing it from the shackles of overregulation and Ottawa’s control could, I noted, “Make Alberta Great Again.”
The secession movement is gaining steam. There’s an effort [ [link removed] ] to collect petition signatures to put the issue to a referendum, and events around the province have drawn a lot of interest [ [link removed] ]; long lines stretching blocks have been reported [ [link removed] ] at many locations. The effort needs to submit 177,000 petitions by May 2, and organizers are confident that they will hit the mark.
The province has long been at odds with Canada’s eastern political elites, mostly over the latter’s attempts to stifle the province’s exploitation of its natural resources. Albertans have often threatened to restrict supply to the eastern provinces in protest, and a common bumper sticker in the 1980’s proclaimed, “Let the Eastern Bastards Freeze in the Dark.”
More recently, tensions were exacerbated by a climate alarmism emanating from elites, and at times it appeared as if Ottawa was going out of its way to antagonize its Western countrymen. Environmental regulation, carbon taxes, pipeline cancellations, and emissions caps have all threatened Alberta’s economy, and the federal government even banned [ [link removed] ] tankers from loading oil off the country’s west coast, widely seen as a deliberate poke in the Albertan eye.
The election of Mark Carney turned the secession simmer into a boil; tensions [ [link removed] ] have been rapidly rising since the consummate “Davos Man” took office. Beyond the usual Liberal policies, there was also the belligerent stance he has taken with the United States. Western Canada has strong trade ties to the U.S., which is the region’s largest importer of energy. As Carney jousted with U.S. President Donald Trump over trade, it was suggested that Canada should restrict or tax energy exports to America. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith rejected [ [link removed] ] the notion outright.
Carney has tried to mend the relationship between Ottawa and Alberta, and a recent Memoranda of Understanding [ [link removed] ] signed by Carney and Smith promises to ease energy restrictions. While hopeful for Alberta, my worry is that a leopard can’t change its spots, and sooner or later the Harvard and Oxford-educated former central banker will revert to form. For many in the climate movement, and likely including Carney (he was, after all, the UN Special Envoy for Climate Action), exploiting natural resources isn’t just a bad policy, it’s actually evil and an existential threat to humanity.
Carney’s so-called pivot towards China and “diversification” strategy won’t help matters either. Alberta has strong economic and cultural ties to the United States, and many Albertans are more closely aligned (politically and socially) with their neighbors to the south than their fellow Canadians to the east. While there is of course an economic benefit from expanding exports to Asia (the agriculture sector in particular might see some big gains), most Albertans are opposed to doing so at the expense of maximizing opportunities in the US market.
Carney’s pivot away from America and towards China doesn’t make sense in today’s rapidly bifurcating global economy. And in the context of trade spats with the United States, aligning with China over the defense of Greenland, and preparing for a possible American invasion of Canada, the “diversification” agenda can only intensify Albertan angst. It’s also led US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to acknowledge Alberta’s desire for sovereignty. [ [link removed] ] Given Ottawa seems openly hostile towards Alberta and its strong relationship with the United States, it’s not surprising that the secession movement is gaining momentum.
As I have written [ [link removed] ] before, the world is breaking into two separate and distinct political and economic ecosystems, one led by Americans and the other led by the Chinese. The former will champion free men, free markets, and free minds; the latter totalitarianism, state planning, and censorship. Sooner or later, everyone is going to have to pick a side [ [link removed] ].
I have made dozens of trip to Alberta (I’m a HUGE fan of the Calgary Stampede [ [link removed] ]) over the last fifteen years and have come to know Albertans as freedom-loving, enterprising, rugged individualists who get prickly when their rights are being infringed. There’s no doubt in my mind which side of the divide they will come down on.
VIKRAM MANSHARAMANI is an entrepreneur, consultant, scholar, neighbor, husband, father, volunteer, and professional generalist who thinks in multiple-dimensions and looks beyond the short-term. Self-taught to think around corners and connect original dots, he spends his time speaking with global leaders in business, government, academia, and journalism. He’s currently the Chairman and CEO of Goodwell Foods, a manufacturer of private label frozen pizza. LinkedIn has twice listed him as its #1 Top Voice in Money & Finance, and Worthprofiled him as one of the 100 Most Powerful People in Global Finance. Vikram earned a PhD From MIT, has taught at Yale and Harvard, and is the author of three books, The Making of a Generalist: An Independent Thinker Finds Unconventional Success in an Uncertain World [ [link removed] ], Think for Yourself: Restoring Common Sense in an Age of Experts and Artificial Intelligence [ [link removed] ] and Boombustology: Spotting Financial Bubbles Before They Burst [ [link removed] ]. Vikram lives in Lincoln, New Hampshire with his wife and two children, where they can usually be found hiking or skiing.
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