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State of Play: “Total Access”
You knew it was going to end like this. A couple hours after delivering a growling, meandering, embarrassing speech to the World Economic Forum in Davos on Wednesday, Donald Trump posted a triumphant announcement [ [link removed] ] of a “framework of a future deal”—later he called it a “concept of a deal [ [link removed] ]”—on Greenland that would allow him, the ever-magnanimous leader of the free world, to hold back on those new European tariffs he was promising. He referenced a “great” solution, but pointedly did not mention the actual acquisition of Greenland. Sure enough, a NATO spokesperson then put out a statement [ [link removed] ] indicating that talks would focus on “ensuring Arctic security through the collective efforts of Allies,” and the Secretary General said in a TV interview that the topic of ownership of Greenland “did not come up anymore [ [link removed] ] in my conversations tonight with the president.”
According to Bloomberg [ [link removed] ], the deal “entails the stationing of US missiles, mining rights aimed at keeping Chinese interests out and a bolstered NATO presence” and a promise from Trump to hold off on tariffs. In other words, essentially the status quo: under a 1951 treaty with Denmark, which now will be altered slightly [ [link removed] ], we already have the right [ [link removed] ] to build new military bases, and Greenland has already made clear that it’s open to doing business [ [link removed] ] on mineral rights. That didn’t stop Trump from telling [ [link removed] ] Fox’s Maria Bartiromo this morning: “We’re getting everything we wanted. Total security. Total access to everything … We’re getting everything we want at no cost.”
We can expect the usual, meaningless victory laps from the administration: gloating cable appearances, a Cabinet meeting where everyone praises Trump’s vision and tenacity in establishing hemispheric dominance, a visit by Vance or Rubio in cold-weather gear. Maybe that bill from last year to rename it “Red, White, and Blueland [ [link removed] ]” will even get a vote. So what if we blasted real and growing fissures into NATO? So what if the Prime Minister of Canada says we’re now “in the midst of a rupture”? The important thing is that Trump feels good.
What We’re Watching
This is one of those tricky days where we have two major news events happening at the same time as we’re putting our outline together: Jack Smith’s testimony in front of the House Judiciary Committee, which is already underway, and JD Vance’s trip to Minnesota for a speech and roundtable. Plus, we woke up to a new Times/Siena poll that we (or at least I) wasn’t expecting. A real flashback to October 2024. For our interview, Dan will be talking to Rep. Ilhan Omar, to get her reaction to Vance’s visit and the new DHS operation against Somalis in Maine. Here’s what we’re looking at for news blocks:
Trump at Davos, Greenland in the Balance
Truly in awe of the American statecraft on display in Davos.
That difference you’re feeling in the air today? It’s the sensatoin of living in a world that now has a Board of Peace [ [link removed] ]. Trump’s effort to create his own shadow UN launched today without the participation of most of America’s important allies, in part because of the fact that Vladimir Putin has been invited to join. (Though he hasn’t committed yet.) From the AP report on Trump’s kickoff remarks: “He told the group, ranging from Azerbaijan to Paraguay to Hungary, ‘You’re the most powerful people in the world.’”
The main topic, though, is Trump’s Greenland deal. Because it’s fun, we’ll probably play our favorite moments from Trump’s speech, in which he repeatedly called Greenland “Iceland” (which the White House, hilariously, denied [ [link removed] ]), claimed that NATO “called me Daddy [ [link removed] ],” and did a lot of general crowing about America’s role in the world. Then we’ll get into the deal and what little we know about it [ [link removed] ].
I’m also hoping we’ll have time to discuss Mark Carney’s big speech [ [link removed] ] to the WEF on Tuesday, where he said the “rupture” thing and also called out [ [link removed] ] the “fiction” of the rules-based order. Seems like a big deal, but that might just be because I married a Canadian.
Minnesota and Immigration
Vance’s trip to Minnesota, against the backdrop of continued, monstrous raids [ [link removed] ] and the nakedly political [ [link removed] ] criminal investigation of state Democratic leaders, will almost certainly lead this section. An advisor says Vance will “celebrate the essential work ICE agents have done,” telling Axios [ [link removed] ]: “JD took Minnesota on as an issue where he’s going to lead. He wants a strong response.” There’s plenty of other big news, too.
The administration is busy hyping [ [link removed] ] its arrest of two people allegedly responsible for the protest that interrupted church services at a church in St. Paul, which Kristi Noem, in her post, called [ [link removed] ] “the Church Riots.” They are going to give this story all the oxygen they can manage.
Geraldo Lunas Campos, the Cuban migrant who died in an ICE detention camp in Texas on January 3, was killed by strangulation [ [link removed] ], the medical examiner said last night. Lunas Campos was seen struggling [ [link removed] ] with detention officers before his death.
That will only inflame debate in the House, which votes today on a funding bill for the Department of Homeland Security. Democrats plan to oppose it [ [link removed] ]. The real test may be in the Senate, where it heads a few days from now. Planning to make Dan play strategist and advise Senate Dems on how to vote.
ICE has started up operations against the Somali immigrant community in Maine, which they’re calling Operation Catch of the Day [ [link removed] ]. Cute.
The Associated Press obtained [ [link removed] ] an internal ICE memo that tells officers it’s okay to forcibly enter someone’s home with only an administrative warrant—not a judicial warrant—in order to take custody of someone with a removal order.
Jack Smith on the Hill
“Our investigation developed proof beyond a reasonable doubt that President Trump engaged in criminal activity,” Jack Smith told [ [link removed] ] the House Judiciary Committee this morning, saying that he stood by the decisions he made as Special Counsel.
We often skip congressional hearings, even the dramatic ones, on the theory that they’re procedural and most people don’t care. This one, coming after Smith demanded [ [link removed] ] he be able to testify publicly, is an exception. We’ll get into the interesting moments, and what the end-game is for Jim Jordan and the House Republicans.
My thought is that we’ll jump from the Smith discussion to what happened in the House Oversight Committee on Wednesday, where nine Democrats voted with Republicans [ [link removed] ] to hold Bill Clinton in contempt of Congress, and three voted to hold Hillary Clinton in contempt, for refusing to attend depositions by the committee last week. Voting yes seems like smart politics to me, and I’m curious for Jon and Dan’s takes on why Hakeem Jeffries whipped against it.
Fresh Polling
We try not to put too much weight on an individual poll, but Times/Siena [ [link removed] ] tends to get special treatment, especially when the numbers for Trump are so bad that he says he’s going to sue [ [link removed] ] over it. Somewhere in the Bay Area, Dan is doing hamstring stretches.
The headline is that only 32 percent of respondents say the country is better off since Trump took office again, while 49 percent (and 52 percent of independents) say we’re worse off.
Trump is 17 points underwater on immigration, and 29 points underwater on the cost of living.
The bigger element of the story, as Nate Cohn explores in his analysis column [ [link removed] ], is that “the major demographic shifts of the last election have snapped back. In today’s poll, Mr. Trump’s approval rating by demographic group looks almost exactly as it did in Times/Siena polling in the run-up to his defeat in the 2020 presidential election. If anything, young and nonwhite voters are even likelier to disapprove of Mr. Trump than they were then.”
“They will be held fully responsible for all of their Radical Left lies and wrongdoing!” Trump writes of the pollsters.
Open Tabs
My browser windows are always littered with articles I keep meaning to finish, or, in some cases, start. Here are this week’s top three:...

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