Analysis - With Prop. 50 Lines Set, Which California House Seats Are Actually In Play?

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The Stark Reality, Not Many Districts Are In Contention

With last week’s federal court ruling foreclosing the likelihood of stopping the use of the new Prop. 50-imposed Congressional Districts this year (it seems to me very unlikely that SCOTUS steps in to change this, but as they say, hope springs eternal) — it is worth taking a look at exactly how things now are for Republicans in terms of competing for House seats here in California.

To provide an objective review, let’s look at the Cook Political Report (CPR), a respected nonpartisan election analysis outlet relied upon for accurate congressional race ratings and data.

They actually just released a whole list of revised ratings on districts nationwide (19 of them) last week - some of them in California. It is worth noting that, across all 19 cases, the districts shifted in favor of the Democrats.

CPR categorizes races as Solid, Likely, Lean, or Toss Up. Here are their definitions:

Solid: Not competitive, unlikely to become so.

Likely: Not competitive now, but could be.

Lean: Competitive, one party has an edge.

Toss Up: Most competitive; either party can win.

Once we walk through CPR’s perspective on California, we’ll compare it directly to another major handicapping outfit—Inside Elections. Although Inside Elections has not updated districts recently, they have provided post–Prop. 50 analysis. Finally, I’ll share my personal take for additional context.

The field among California’s 52 House seats is now very narrow. CPR rates 43 as safe Democratic and four as safe Republican…

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