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Welcoming Rachael Bade to the Washington Reporter

Bade’s first column: Republicans face massive risks by focusing on healthcare

We’re excited to share that Rachael Bade
<[link removed]> has joined the Washington Reporter as
a contributor.

Her first column, below, is an insightful piece on the risks facing
Republicans if Congressional leadership tries to pass healthcare reform in the
coming months. It’s sharp, timely, and exactly the type of analysis that our
readers on the Hill and downtown expect.

Rachael is the best-sourced reporter in Washington. She’s trusted by
Republicans and Democrats, consistently breaks major news, and is a serious
force in journalism. She brings a wealth of experience, fromPolitico to the
Washington Post.

If you want to read her regularly, we recommend subscribing to her Substack
here:[link removed] <[link removed]>. We
subscribe, and so do senators, representatives, and senior administration
officials.

Adding Rachael is a core part of the Washington Reporter’s growth strategy.
We intend to be the first place Republicans and Democrats look to understand
where policy is headed.

Thank you for your readership — and here’s to a great 2026.

—Brian Colas, CEO and Garrett Ventry, Co-Founder


Republicans should shit or get off the pot on health care

Why keep the spotlight on an issue that plays terribly for the party ahead of
the midterms?
By: Rachael Bade
“A pipe dream on magic mushrooms.”

That’s how one senior House GOP aide recently described to me the odds of
Republicans passing a health care bill in 2026.

So, here’s the real question the party should be asking itself: Why on earth
are they keeping this issue in the spotlight during a contentious midterm year?

In the Senate, bipartisan negotiators have been saying for months — seriously,
months! — that they’re “close” on a bipartisan health care deal. Meanwhile,
Speaker Mike Johnson (R., La.) has floated the idea of Republicans drafting
their own partisan bill via reconciliation in the House.

But behind closed doors, most Republicans I’ve spoken with are exasperated,
calling this political malpractice — or even outright idiocy. Given the GOP’s
razor-thin House majority — not to mention the deep ideological divides over
how to reform the system — the prospect of passing anything is slim to none, if
we’re being honest.

So why drag out an issue that overwhelmingly benefits Democrats, allowing the
opposition to keep pounding away at Republicans as the midterms approach —
especially with the odds of success so remote?

“This is insane… Are we taking crazy pills?” a second senior GOP aide told me.
“If we’re talking about health care or reconciliation, we are screwed. Nobody
really wants to be talking about health care.”

If Republicans go down this road, it promises to be a months-long, Sisyphean
slog. The two parties are at loggerheads over abortion restrictions, while
Democrats — who know they have the upper hand in polling — are in no mood to
compromise.

And if Republicans try to go it alone? Mark my words: It will be even messier.
I covered the last GOP health care push in 2017, and for anyone who doesn’t
remember, it wasn’t pretty. How many times did the bill flatline at the hands
of then-Freedom Caucus Chair Mark Meadows (R., N.C.) or the late-Sen. John
McCain (R., Ariz.)? And that — mind you — was with a much bigger majority. And
by the way? It never passed.

Complicating things further, any health care debate will take place during the
primary season, when intraparty compromise becomes even more difficult.

“I just don’t know how we get there. Conservatives want to repeal Obamacare;
moderates want to extend subsidies,” the aide with the colorful “pipedream”
quote continued. “It was hard enough in 2017, and now we have even less room
for error — and a more diverse conference on this issue.”

“It’s a losing issue,” another GOP operative told me. “Nothing will pass. All
we’re doing is keeping it alive.”

Consider how potent this issue has been for the GOP in the past. In 2018,
Republicans bled more than 40 House seats after the party failed to repeal and
replace Obamacare. More recently, Democrats were able to dodge the bulk of the
blame for the weekslong government shutdown by hugging health care as an issue
— even though Democrats themselves100 percent caused the shutdown.

The polling isn’t any kinder and has shown time and time again that health
care is kryptonite for the GOP. In a recent study by American One Policies,
shared privately with Senate Republicans recently, only 31 percent said the GOP
does a better job on the issue (46 percent chose the Democrats). Just as bad:
36 percent blamed Republicans for rising insurance costs; just 26 percent
blamed the actual architects for today’s genius system.

The anxiety — and the split over strategy — runs deep through GOP leadership
circles in both chambers, but especially the House. Some senior Republicans are
quietly arguing that it’s time to move on, redirect attention to prices and
affordability, and just remind voters that the broken system was the grand
scheme of the Democrats.

One of those frustrated lawmakers is the very man who would have to take the
lead writing a second reconciliation bill: Ways and Means Chairman Rep. Jason
Smith (R., Mo.), who’s been clear about his skepticism publicly.

“There’s simply no path to pass a second one,” Smith told NOTUS
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this week. “I’d love to, but the reality is it won’t ever happen.”

(I’m told Smith has been even more vocal in private lately.)

Skeptical Republicans have been baffled that Speaker Johnson is even
entertaining this fraught debate despite knowing the impossible odds. They know
he’s motivated by conviction, and some speculate that he’s pursuing health care
because he thinks it’s what members want.

But others worry the party is simply keeping the talking point alive for
fundraising purposes. Only at some point, they argue, donors will expect
results – and Republicans won’t be able to deliver.

Skeptical Republicans argue that if GOP leaders were serious about health
care, they should have acted six months ago. They also point out that the party
has done little to message what they’ve already passed. In the House, for
example, members are still smarting that the rollout of their December health
care bill was a disaster. They felt blindsided and couldn’t get an answer from
the speaker’s office about what was in the bill and the strategy at play. And
they still don't feel like they have guidance on how or whether to be talking
about the legislation at all.

“Why would we do health care again when the first one was a nightmare?” one
senior GOP aide asked me recently.

Many Republicans think the party should have just left this issue in 2025.
Behind the scenes, some have questioned why Johnson didn’t just placate the
mods and allow a vote on the expiring Obamacare subsidies in December, as Thune
did. That would, they argue, have staved off an embarrassing discharge petition
effort and allowed the party to rip the band-aid off before the holidays — then
start 2026 with a fresh slate.

Instead, 17 House Republicans joined Democrats in voting last week to extend
the Obamacare premium subsidies, reinvigorating Democrats’ talking points and
embarrassing the leadership.

The short of the story is this: Take all this health care chatter with a pound
— not a grain — of salt.

“A lot of people will throw things out there” in the coming days and weeks on
health care, one top aide said. “But until we get serious and look at the art
of the possible — actually write it down, present it to the president, and get
on the same page — nothing’s happening. All of this? It’s just happy talk. It’s
all bullshit.”
Rachael Bade is a contributor for The Washington Reporter and the author of
the newsletter“The Inner Circle,”
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where she chronicles the buzz in Washington. Bade also co-hosts the morning
political talk show“The Huddle”
<[link removed]>
alongside Sean Spicer and Dan Turrentine. Click the links to subscribe to both
today!

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