Trump does his best to make this Texas primary even crazier

Sen. John Cornyn of Texas is one of three sitting Republicans fighting for reelection as President Donald Trump has no immediate plans to endorse them—a notable omission for an incumbent in the race of his political life.

According to Politico, Cornyn joins Sens. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana and Susan Collins of Maine in a small but telling group unlikely to benefit from Trump’s backing, at least for now. In a GOP increasingly shaped by loyalty tests, the president’s silence carries weight.

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The hesitation reflects Trump’s growing irritation with congressional Republicans who have pushed back against him in recent weeks. That frustration boiled over after a Senate vote blocking Trump from using military force in Venezuela without congressional approval, but it has been building for months. 

Earlier this month, 17 House Republicans voted to preserve Obamacare subsidies. And on Monday, outgoing Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina threatened to block Trump’s expected Federal Reserve chair pick in response to the Justice Department’s criminal investigation of Jerome Powell.

Notably, Cornyn wasn’t part of that resistance. If anything, he has spent the last year trying to stay firmly in Trump’s good graces, which is why his current predicament feels less punitive than transactional.

Cornyn is locked in a bruising primary against two challengers who are both eager to run to his right: Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt. With three major candidates in the field and Texas requiring a majority to secure the nomination, a runoff is all but guaranteed. 

After four Senate terms, Cornyn faces the very real possibility of finishing third, exiting early while his rivals limp toward November.

Despite Paxton’s legal troubles and personal scandals—and despite Cornyn’s deep ties to GOP donors in Texas and Washington—the incumbent has struggled to separate himself. A December co/efficient poll found Cornyn narrowly leading with 28%, just ahead of Paxton at 27%, while Hunt captured 19%. 

But for a sitting senator, the numbers are ominous.

Cornyn has responded by leaning harder into Trump’s orbit. He recently joined a group of GOP senators and hopefuls in the Rio Grande Valley to praise Trump’s border policies. And last year, he crisscrossed Texas promoting the extension of Trump’s first-term tax cuts and other provisions in the administration’s sweeping spending bill.

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So far, that effort has not yielded the endorsement Cornyn wants most. Cornyn even told the Houston Chronicle that he recently asked Trump for his backing, only to be denied.

“They need Cornyn on good behavior,” a Trump ally close to the White House told Politico, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.

According to the outlet, Trump’s broader strategy with non-endorsements in Texas, Maine, and Louisiana is rooted in leverage. The White House may still need votes from Cornyn, Collins, and Cassidy, and Trump has little interest in destabilizing a GOP Senate majority—even an imperfect one—before the midterms.

“It’s math and the fear of mutually assured destruction,” someone familiar with the White House’s thinking said. “The president doesn’t end their careers, and these senators don’t end his congressional agenda.”

That logic fits more neatly in Maine and Louisiana than it does in Texas. Cornyn is on far better terms with Trump than either Cassidy or Collins, who was the only Republican up for reelection who supported the Venezuela measure. At the same time, Cassidy drew Trump’s ire in 2021 by voting to convict him after the Jan. 6 insurrection—a move that Trump has repeatedly described as disloyal.

Still, Trump has little incentive to intervene in a Texas primary where all three candidates are racing to prove their fealty. From the White House’s perspective, withholding an endorsement keeps Cornyn pliable while letting Paxton and Hunt tear into him from the right.

“Senator Cornyn speaks to President Trump regularly and works closely with the White House,” Cornyn’s senior campaign adviser Matt Mackowiak told Politico. “He is proud to have voted 99.3% with President Trump while in office.”

When asked late last year how the Trump administration viewed the Texas race, White House deputy chief of staff James Blair offered nothing more than a shrug. 

“Texas will definitely elect a Republican senator,” he told Politico. “Texas will be fine.”

Cornyn is not alone in desperately waiting by the phone. The White House has also stayed neutral in Georgia, where Reps. Buddy Carter and Mike Collins are competing in a Senate primary that includes former college football coach Derek Dooley.

But Cornyn’s situation underscores a broader truth of Trump-era politics: Loyalty alone is no guarantee of protection. If backing an ally doesn’t clearly serve Trump’s interests, he is content to let even longtime supporters fend for themselves.

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