From Morning Watchlist <[email protected]>
Subject The 1929 Market Crash Could Happen Again
Date January 13, 2026 2:06 PM
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Preparing now could matter more than predicting the timing. ͏  ͏
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[Morning Watchlist]

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HISTORY DOESN’T REPEAT ITSELF EXACTLY — BUT IN FINANCIAL MARKETS,
IT OFTEN RHYMES.

Right now, investors may want to prepare as if it were 1929, 2000, or
even 2008. That’s because today’s market setup looks eerily
familiar to some of the most devastating periods in modern investing
history.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, the NASDAQ, and the S&P 500 are all
sitting at or near all-time highs. Optimism is everywhere. Confidence
is soaring. Valuations have stretched to levels that many seasoned
investors struggle to justify.

Even more concerning? Markets have largely shrugged off serious risks
— including trade tensions, geopolitical conflicts, slowing global
growth, sticky inflation, and rising interest-rate uncertainty.
Instead of caution, investors are displaying a near-unshakeable belief
that stocks can only move higher.

That mindset should sound familiar — because it’s the same
psychology that preceded some of the worst market crashes in history.

-------------------------

A LOOK BACK AT 1929

Between 1923 and 1929, the Dow Jones surged roughly 300%. Investors
became convinced they were living in a “new era” — one where
technological progress and economic growth would permanently lift
stock prices.

Speculation exploded. Margin debt ballooned. Valuations soared far
beyond historical norms. Rational risk management gave way to blind
optimism.

Then, almost without warning, everything unraveled.

Between 1929 and 1932, the Dow Jones lost an astonishing 86% of its
value. Entire fortunes vanished. Retirement savings were wiped out.
Many investors were financially — and emotionally — unprepared for
just how severe the collapse would become.

THE DOT-COM BUBBLE: 2000 ALL OVER AGAIN

Fast-forward to the late 1990s.

The internet promised to change the world — and it did. But
investors took that promise too far. Companies with little revenue, no
profits, and sometimes no real business model were valued as if
success were guaranteed.

The Dow Jones and NASDAQ screamed higher as dot-com optimism reached a
fever pitch. Traditional valuation metrics were dismissed as
“outdated.” Sound familiar?

When reality finally caught up in 2000, the bubble burst. The NASDAQ
collapsed. The Dow suffered major losses. Once again, investors who
believed “this time is different” learned an expensive lesson.

And again, many weren’t prepared.

-------------------------

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-------------------------

THE 2008 FINANCIAL CRISIS

Then came 2008.

A booming housing market convinced Americans that home prices could
never fall nationwide. Banks took on massive leverage. Complex
financial instruments hid risk in plain sight. Stocks surged on
economic optimism and easy credit.

The Dow Jones peaked at 14,038.

Then the system cracked.

Housing prices collapsed. Lehman Brothers failed. Credit markets
froze. The Dow eventually sank to roughly 6,500, wiping out years of
gains in a matter of months.

Once again, the majority of investors were caught completely off
guard.

WHY TODAY LOOKS UNCOMFORTABLY SIMILAR

Now look at where we are today.

Markets are at record highs. Investor sentiment is extremely bullish.
Risk appetite is elevated. Speculative behavior has returned — from
aggressive options trading to concentrated bets in a narrow group of
mega-cap stocks.

But perhaps the most alarming signal comes from valuation metrics.

The Shiller P/E ratio, one of the most respected long-term valuation
tools, currently sits around 40.66. That places it at the
second-highest level in history.

The only time it was higher?

Right before the dot-com crash in 2000, when it peaked at 44.19.

Historically, elevated Shiller P/E levels have been followed by long
periods of subpar returns — and in extreme cases, outright crashes.
Today’s reading suggests that markets are pricing in near-perfect
conditions indefinitely.

History tells us that rarely ends well.

-------------------------

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-------------------------

COMPLACENCY IS THE REAL RISK

Perhaps the most dangerous factor isn’t valuations alone — it’s
complacency.

Investors today are behaving as if major drawdowns are a thing of the
past. Many believe central banks will always step in. Others assume
that innovation, AI, or corporate buybacks will permanently support
stock prices.

That belief is exactly what investors thought in 1929, 2000, and 2008.

Markets don’t crash when everyone is cautious. They crash when
confidence is highest.

PREPARING INSTEAD OF PREDICTING

No one can predict the exact timing of the next major market decline.
Crashes rarely announce themselves in advance.

But investors can prepare.

One way to do that is by positioning for volatility — which tends to
spike sharply when markets fall. When fear rises, volatility often
explodes higher, sometimes faster than almost any other asset class.

There are several ways investors can gain exposure to volatility:

Three Ways to Bet on Rising Volatility

1. PROSHARES ULTRA VIX SHORT-TERM FUTURES ETF (BATS: UVXY)
UVXY is designed to deliver 2x the daily performance of the S&P 500
VIX Short-Term Futures Index. Because it’s leveraged, it can move
sharply during periods of market stress. While not suitable for
long-term holding, it can be a powerful short-term hedge when
volatility surges.

2. IPATH S&P 500 VIX SHORT-TERM FUTURES ETN (BATS: VXX)
VXX provides exposure to the S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Index
without leverage. It tends to rise when fear enters the market and can
act as a defensive position during sudden sell-offs.

3. PROSHARES VIX SHORT-TERM FUTURES ETF (BATS: VIXY)
VIXY offers long exposure to short-term VIX futures with a structure
designed to track volatility more directly. It’s another tool
investors can use to hedge against sharp market downturns.

-------------------------

_Crypto 101_

SOMETHING SHIFTED IN THE LAST TWO WEEKS. DID YOU FEEL IT?
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-------------------------

_Are there any other Short-Term Futures stocks that you've got your
eye on right now? What other sectors of the market are you currently
interested in? Hit "reply" to this email and let us know your
thoughts!_

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We encourage you to conduct your own due diligence and research before
making any investment decisions. You should also consult with a
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This disclosure is made as of 01/13/2026

 

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