Hi John,
A few weeks ago, we announced the expansion of Swing Left’s House target map for the 2026 midterm election. With 11 newly added swing districts, Swing Left is now targeting 33 competitive seats that have the power to determine whether Democrats regain control of the House next year.
Today, we’re taking a closer look at two newly added seats: Michigan’s 4th and 10th Congressional Districts.
At first glance, these seats may look Republican-leaning. But in reality, both have a credible, data-backed path to victory, and we believe our community has the power to make a meaningful difference and elect Democrats in both swing districts.
➡️ Michigan’s 4th District is an emerging battleground district. Since 2016, the district has shifted 3.5 points toward Democrats, with Trump’s margin shrinking significantly between 2016 and 2024. Democrats like Governor Gretchen Whitmer and Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson also carried the district in 2022. Independent analyst Inside Elections recently moved their rating of this district in a more competitive direction, and with current Republican Rep. Bill Huizenga’s approval 12 points underwater, MI-04 is positioned to be a highly contested race in 2026. With a strong Swing Left volunteer presence in nearby Detroit and Chicago, we know we can make an impact.
➡️ Michigan’s 10th District was named one of National Journal’s top 20 most competitive districts in the country. Although it leans slightly Republican, the current representative, Republican John James, is stepping down to run for governor, so it’s now an open seat. The last time this seat was open in 2022, Democrats came within 1,600 votes of flipping it, even while being massively outspent. With strong Democratic candidates stepping forward, it’s a competitive race. MI-10 has a real chance of being one of the swing districts we need to help Democrats flip the House.
These additions reflect the core of Swing Left’s strategy, which is to focus on swing districts where grassroots volunteers and donors can meaningfully affect the outcome. Often that means leveraging time and resources from deep-blue regions into nearby battlegrounds—as many of us live within 90 minutes of a competitive swing district. We don’t rely on wishful thinking, but on real, data-driven insights on how to flip the House.
And the work doesn’t start next fall. It starts now. Early investments means stronger field programs and more time to connect with the voters who will determine the outcome of these races.
Your contribution supports Swing Left’s national organizing work, including our innovative voter contact program, Ground Truth. It also allows campaigns to go on offense on day one of the general election: hiring staff, running ads, and reaching voters sooner before Republicans go on the attack.
Thank you for everything you do,
The Swing Left Team
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Since 2017, Swing Left has channeled the energy of grassroots volunteers and donors to elect Democrats, up and down the ballot, focusing on the most competitive races that can swing the national balance of power. Right now, Swing Left is investing in early grassroots organizing in key swing districts and initiatives across the country to lay the foundation to win back the House in 2026. If you’d like to help support our work, you can make a donation using this link. |
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Paid for by Swing Left, swingleft.org, not authorized by any candidate or candidate’s committee.
