John,
Welcome to The Blue Wave Weekly!
Every week I’ll be sharing insights, updates and ways for you to get involved and help us build the Blue Wave! This work takes serious resources, so if you’re able, please make a donation to support Blue Wave California today. Here’s this week’s edition:
More Over-Performance, Health Care, and a Foreign Policy Wake-Up Call
On The Practivist Pod this week, Jess and I covered a lot: big Democratic wins, brutal ICE raids in our neighborhoods, a looming health care showdown, and a dangerous new foreign policy direction from the Trump regime. But underneath all of it, I see the same story playing out: when people see what’s really happening, they’re rejecting it. At the ballot box, in their communities, and in ways that should fuel our sense of urgency and give us cautious optimism.
So Much Winning — Florida, Georgia, and the Villages!
Let’s start with the good news: more over-performing.
In Miami, Democrat Eileen Higgins won the mayor’s race by nearly 19 points in a city that hasn’t had a Democratic mayor in almost 30 years. In 2021, the Republican incumbent won re-election by more than 60 points. That is an insane swing! And it wasn’t just Miami. In Georgia, Democrat Eric Gisler flipped a state house seat in a district that Trump won by 13 points. It wasn’t on anyone’s “likely flip” list. Local organizers did the work, and the ground shifted under everyone’s feet.
Even in deep-red Florida districts we didn’t win, we saw enormous movement. A Trump +40 state senate district that includes The Villages swung 22 points to the left. Another Florida state house seat swung 19 points left. When you average out Georgia and Florida, you’re looking at around a 16-point shift.
Zooming out across all our elections in 2025, Democrats have either won or dramatically over-performed in over 90% of them. The average swing in recent House specials is around 18 points. If those margins hold anywhere close to where they are now, 2026 isn’t just competitive, it’s a blowout opportunity. But only if we do the work.
ICE, Racism, and Cruelty
At the same time that voters are moving our way, Trump is doubling down on open racism and state violence. His so-called “affordability” speech, delivered in front of a laughable banner that read, “Lower Prices, Bigger Paychecks” — barely mentioned the economy. Instead, it devolved into yet another unhinged, racist rant about immigrants.
ICE raids continue to escalate in our neighborhoods with escalating cruelty and violence. These are members of our community working hard to take care of their families, not criminals. The Trump regime is counting on our exhaustion and our desire to look away. We have to push back on that instinct — with grace for ourselves, and then with action for our neighbors.
The Health Care Fight That’s Coming
A central issue heading into the midterms will be health care, and the contrast in our policies couldn’t be more evident. Democrats in the Senate have proposed a three-year extension of the ACA premium tax credits. Full stop.
Republicans are pushing an HSA scheme that might sound helpful until you read the fine print: a small amount of money in a health savings account that you can’t use for premiums, only available if you “downgrade” to a high-deductible catastrophic or bronze plan. We’re talking deductibles of $7,500–$10,000, bare-bones coverage, and plans that don’t even guarantee basics like maternity care.
What happens next is predictable: young, healthy people flee the marketplace, costs go up for everyone else, more people drop coverage, premiums spike again, and the whole system spirals. That’s not a bug, it’s the point. It’s a planned “health care death spiral” designed to kill the ACA and shove everyone back into the arms of private insurers.
So tell your health care story. Talk about your bills, your deductibles, the care you didn’t get because you couldn’t afford it. This is one of the few issues that cuts straight through party identity. Everyone has a health care story and we all know how broken this system is.
A Dangerous New Foreign Policy — and Why It Matters Here
This week I also talked with national security expert and former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Joel Rubin about the Trump regime’s new national security strategy and the escalating strikes on Venezuelan fishing boats. The new strategy is a radical, backward-looking vision that leans on militarism, spheres of influence, and a “big stick” approach to the Western Hemisphere, all while sidelining diplomacy, development, and alliances.
The strikes on Venezuelan boats, including the second “double-tap” strike on survivors clinging to wreckage, and seizing an oil tanker, look a lot like an unauthorized, undeclared regime-change campaign dressed up as drug interdiction. There’s no congressional authorization, no public debate, and no real evidence tying these boats to the fentanyl crisis they’re using as justification. We’ve seen this movie before: hyped-up threats, fuzzy numbers, talk of “weapons of mass destruction,” and then a slide into another forever war that the American people never asked for.
Why does this matter for us, here? Because wars “over there” never stay over there. Our troops, our money, and our communities bear the costs for decades. And because when presidents bypass Congress and the public on something as devastating as war, that’s not just bad foreign policy — it’s democratic erosion.
Why This All Matters for Blue Wave California
So what does Miami elections, ICE, health care, and Venezuela have to do with our work at Blue Wave California? Everything.
- Those massive over-performances in Florida and Georgia are the same pattern we saw in Tennessee last week and in special elections all year long.
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The ICE raids and racist rhetoric are the domestic face of the same cruel ideology driving foreign policy decisions abroad.
- The health care death spiral plan is exactly the kind of policy that will be on the ballot in 2026.
California is the firewall. With Prop 50’s new maps, our state is central to retaking the House and building a congressional majority that can stop unauthorized wars before they start, defend and expand health care instead of dismantling it, rein in agencies like ICE and hold them accountable, and pass policies that actually serve the American people.
What We Need Now
I’m going to sound like a broken record every week but if we want to turn these trends — the over-performance, the energy, the backlash to cruelty — into actual wins, we have to build now, not six months before Election Day.
So I’m asking you, If you can donate, please do. Monthly donations are especially powerful and they let us plan field, media, and organize with confidence. If you can volunteer, let me know. We’re staffing social media war rooms, district teams, and organizing hubs across key California districts. Share this newsletter with friends, repost on social media, and help widen our circle.
On top of that, share your health care story, show up when there are ICE alerts in your community if you can do so safely, and call your members of Congress about the Venezuela strikes and demand oversight.
Reasons for Hope
I attended an event here in D.C. this week at our National Cathedral. It was a conversation between Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro and Utah Governor Spencer Cox about political violence. Democrat and Republican, side by side, talking seriously about how to dial down the rhetoric, condemn violence across the board, and encourage more engagement at the local level.
It reminded me that we have more in common then we have differences. It gave me hope that there are still leaders, and communities, willing to do the harder work of building instead of burning. The swings we’re seeing in Florida, Georgia, and all over the country are proof that years of effort are coming to fruition and that’s thanks to people like you. I am confident that Americans will choose love over hate. As we say on the show, “Hope is an action.”
Thank you for staying in this fight with us.
— Steve
