As the United States continues its military pressure campaign against Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, I’ve been struck by the relative lack of discussion about one of the regime’s most important criminal allies: the National Liberation Army (Ejército de Liberación Nacional - ELN).
Maduro has long provided the Colombia-born guerrilla group with safe haven in Venezuela. The ELN shares the government’s leftist ideology and helps suppress political dissent. It also regulates criminal economies like the drug trade that grease the wheels of corruption and maintain the loyalty of senior officials.
But one of the ELN’s most important roles – especially now, with the United States threatening military action – is its control over much of the Venezuela-Colombia border.
President Donald Trump has suggested he might order airstrikes inside Venezuela. If those strikes hit ELN targets, which largely lie along the border, Maduro would have added incentive to respond. Such an attack would not only violate national sovereignty but would also threaten an ally he depends on.
In a scenario involving a full-scale invasion, the ELN would almost certainly aid Maduro in attempting to repel the invading forces. Landing troops and material by sea, or entering from Venezuela’s eastern neighbor Guyana, would be difficult given the geography of coastlines and thick jungle. Any large-scale operation would likely run through Colombia – something current President Gustavo Petro would never allow, though a future government might.
Maduro has other criminal allies, but the ELN is arguably the most powerful – and certainly the most battle-tested. It has fought the Colombian state for over half a century, and thanks to its relationship with Maduro, it is currently at one of the strongest points in its history.
That’s why we examined the group in a new report launched this week with an in-person event in Colombia. The topic has important implications not only for Colombia and Venezuela, but for the entire regional security landscape. Dive into the report, and stay tuned as we continue to follow this space.
