What Jasmine Crockett’s bid means for the most chaotic race in Texas

Jasmine Crockett has never been one to ease into a fight, and she isn’t starting now. 

Hours before Texas’ filing deadline on Monday, the Dallas-area congresswoman—progressive firebrand, Trump antagonist, and one of the House’s most visible new Democrats—jumped into the state’s 2026 Senate race, shaking up what had been a relatively quiet Democratic contest.

For most of the year, the Democratic field looked somewhat settled, with former U.S. Rep. Colin Allred and current state Rep. James Talarico vying for the nomination. But by Monday evening, Allred had bowed out, Talarico had issued Crockett a polite welcome, and the shape of the contest shifted almost instantly.

“What we need is for me to have a bigger voice,” Crockett told supporters in a fiery 40-minute speech. “We need to make sure that we are going to stop all the hell that is raining down on all of our people.”

Crockett is right about one thing: Few races this cycle carry as much potential upside—or peril—for Democrats. Texas remains the party’s great white whale, a state that looks just competitive enough to tempt national strategists every cycle, only to break their hearts by November. That’s the political superstition, at least.

But states don’t stay unwinnable forever, and Texas will be safely red … until, suddenly, it isn’t.

Democratic insiders have been trying to game out which candidate is best positioned for that moment. Many of them gravitated toward Allred, whose moderate appeal they believed might better reach white suburban voters. 

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Crockett’s critics were blunter: They argued she’s too “conceited” and too unapologetically herself to win a statewide race—arguments that tend to collapse into coded assumptions about race and who counts as being “electable.” 

As Vox’s Astead Herndon noted, there’s “no ‘moderate’ lane” in the Democratic Party, particularly in a national primary, “without Black southerners.” After all, in 2020, former President Joe Biden won the Democratic nomination largely because Black South Carolinians turned out for him and changed that contest’s narrative.

In practice, the idea of being a “moderate” has less to do with measuring appeal and more to do with keeping candidates who don’t fit a certain mold on a short leash.

Allred leaned into that logic as he exited the race. With three Democrats in the race, he warned, the party risked a bruising primary that would drain resources and leave the nominee limping into the general election.

“I’ve come to believe that a bruising Senate Democratic primary and runoff would prevent the Democratic Party from going into this critical election unified,” he said in a statement, arguing that the stakes of a Trump-aligned Senate were too high to risk internal chaos.

And on the Republican side, chaos is exactly what’s on offer. The GOP is barreling toward a brutally expensive three-way brawl between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, MAGA-pilled state Attorney General Ken Paxton, and Houston-area Rep. Wesley Hunt. Cornyn is fighting for political survival, Paxton is fighting off years of legal trouble, and Hunt is hoping to outflank them both. Polling suggests a runoff is inevitable, extending the bloodletting into late May.

Democrats, by contrast, have managed to whittle their field down to two leading candidates with starkly different styles but overlapping constituencies. Talarico is a seminarian and former schoolteacher who’s carved out a niche as a religiously grounded critic of Christian nationalism, with a following that somehow spans MSNBC progressives and Joe Rogan listeners. Meanwhile, Crockett is the opposite in almost every aesthetic category: Black, sharp-tongued, and unfiltered, with a gift for generating viral moments and a temperament built for political combat.

In a sense, their contest isn’t ideological at all. It’s a choice between modes of persuasion.

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Crockett’s national profile, already high thanks to her relentless sparring with House Republicans, is likely to rocket even further in a Senate campaign. For instance, Trump regularly singles her out, which, in today’s politics, is essentially free advertising. Her supporters see her as the kind of fighter Democrats have chronically lacked: someone who can generate enthusiasm and drive turnout in bluer parts of the state.

Republicans, though, already have their attack lines ready. Cornyn labeled her “radical, theatrical, and ineffective.” Paxton’s allies are practically salivating at the chance to define her early. A Crockett nomination may drive up GOP turnout—but so would a Paxton nomination, and Democrats believe facing him would give them one of their best pickup opportunities nationally.

Polls of the Democratic primary have been limited and inconsistent. Crockett is well known and liked among Democrats, but she also reliably triggers Republicans. A December survey from Change Research found that 49% of Texas voters said they would definitely not vote for Crockett, a higher share than for any other candidate in the contest. And while the poll found Talarico to be less polarizing, Democrats still don’t know whether either candidate could flip the seat, even if they’re no longer treating the question as laughable.

Behind the scenes, Texas Democrats have been trying to avoid the circular firing squad that doomed previous statewide attempts. Former Rep. Beto O’Rourke and other party leaders spent months coaxing candidates toward a coordinated slate that could maximize talent across next year’s races, which include the open attorney general’s seat and Gov. Greg Abbott’s reelection contest. 

And when Crockett started weighing a Senate bid, those conversations accelerated. She privately told both Allred and Talarico that her internal polls showed her strongest in the general election. Her campaign has not made those numbers public.

“The data says that I can win,” she said on MS NOW. “I am very formidable.”

Whether that’s true will become clearer soon enough. Texas requires a majority to avoid a primary runoff, and the most plausible scenario is still a Crockett-Talarico matchup heading into March. That gives Democrats something Republicans won’t have: time. While the GOP slogs through months of intraparty warfare, Democrats could emerge unified.

Crockett acknowledges the skepticism; she said she’s heard variations of it her entire political life.

“Turning Texas blue is what I want to talk to y’all about today,” she said in her announcement speech. “Y’all ain’t never tried it the J.C. way.”

Texas Democrats haven’t won statewide office since 1994. Maybe 2026 will finally break the curse, or maybe Texas will remain Texas for another cycle. But with Crockett in the race, and regardless of whether she or Talarico wins, the party will have a nominee who doesn’t shrink from a fight.

At minimum, Democrats won’t be accused of playing it safe. At maximum, they might catch the GOP on the rare night it stumbles.

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