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Q AND A ON HONDURAS’S 2025 GENERAL ELECTIONS  
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Pedro Labayen Herrera, Annie Bird, Alexander Main, Francesca Emanuele

November 29, 2025
Center for Economic and Policy Research
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_ The election is expected to be close. Election watchers should wait
until final results are clear before announcing a winner. It may be
prudent to await the official declaration, which can take up to 30
days after the election. _

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On November 30, Hondurans will vote to elect a new president, all 128
members of the legislature, and all local officials across the
country’s 298 municipalities. 

These elections are unfolding in a highly polarized climate, with the
ruling LIBRE party candidate and the opposition candidates accusing
each other of planning to commit fraud. The organization of the
elections has been hampered by multiple delays caused by internal
disagreements within the two electoral bodies (the National Electoral
Council and the Electoral Justice Tribunal). These issues have
contributed to growing distrust in both the electoral authorities and
the overall election process.

Broadly, the election will determine whether voters want to see a
continuation of President Xiomara Castro’s left-leaning social and
economic agenda by voting for LIBRE’s presidential and legislative
candidates or whether they prefer to see the country revert to a more
conservative agenda by supporting either the Liberal Party or National
Party candidates. As we discuss below, there is great uncertainty
regarding the potential outcome of these elections due to extremely
disparate polling results. 

The following Q and A looks at the key issues that have generated
discussion and debate ahead of the election and provides background on
the electoral process as well as the internal and external actors that
are likely to play a role in its conduct and outcome.

 

What is the Track Record of the Outgoing LIBRE Government?
In 2022, Xiomara Castro of the progressive LIBRE party became the
country’s first woman president as well as the first presidential
candidate in Honduras’s history to be elected on an overtly
left-wing platform. Her election marked a sharp break from more than a
decade of hard-right National Party rule, which began after a 2009
military coup ousted her husband, then-President Manuel Zelaya, at
gunpoint. The administration of Castro’s predecessor, Juan Orlando
Hernández (2014–2022), was characterized by a relative decline in
social spending, corruption scandals, electoral fraud allegations,
widespread human rights violations, and government complicity in
drug-trafficking operations. Hernández is now serving a 45-year
prison sentence
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in the US for major drug trafficking.

Castro has increased public investment and social spending. Under her
administration, the economy
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has grown moderately, and poverty and inequality have declined, though
both remain high. Despite opposition figures and some US Republicans
labeling her a “communist,” Castro’s government has maintained
an International Monetary Fund (IMF) program throughout its time in
office and received praise
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from the IMF for its prudent fiscal management. The homicide rate has
also dropped to its lowest level in recent history, but violence
persists. Human rights groups have criticized
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Castro for maintaining a prolonged state of emergency in parts of
Honduras and for continuing her predecessor’s policy of militarized
policing. 

Core elements of Castro’s agenda have stalled — including a
UN-backed anti-corruption mission, agrarian and tax reforms, and a
truth commission for human rights abuses in the Bajo Aguán region —
as a result of internal divisions within LIBRE as well as the
party’s inability to form a stable governing coalition in the
National Congress, where LIBRE only holds a plurality of seats.

 

Who are the Main Presidential Candidates?
The three leading contenders for the presidency are LIBRE candidate
Rixi Moncada, a former finance and defense minister in the Castro
administration; Liberal Party candidate Salvador Nasralla, who served
as the country’s vice president for the first half of Castro’s
term before resigning and joining the opposition; and Nasry Asfura, a
former mayor of Tegucigalpa running for the National Party. Unlike in
many other Latin American countries, the presidential race will be
decided in a single round, and the candidate who receives the most
votes will be the winner.

Moncada proposes a continuation of the policies of President Castro,
who is constitutionally prohibited from running for reelection. Her
agenda centers on what she calls the “democratization of the economy
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access to low-interest credit, implementing progressive tax reforms,
strengthening state enterprises, and increasing social security
coverage and public investment. Nasralla’s campaign has emphasized
the fight against corruption, and he proposes
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a hard-line security policy akin to that of President Nayib Bukele of
El Salvador, in addition to electoral reform, a reduction in
government spending, stronger relations with the US, and a relaxation
of labor laws. Asfura proposes
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strengthening the armed forces and police, creating “green jobs,”
undertaking economic and legal reforms to attract investment, and
promoting decentralization by giving municipalities greater control
over public resources and services.

 

What Do the Polls Say?
Polls have varied significantly in their estimates of voter
intentions. Some pollsters, including CID Gallup
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technical tie among all three contenders, while the Mexican pollster
TResearch
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shows Moncada with a substantial lead. Other polling companies,
including several Honduran market research companies like Métrica
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that have no apparent prior experience
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in electoral polling, have published results showing Asfura or
Nasralla with significant leads.

Given the lack of a clear, common trend across the various polls that
have been published, the only certainty is that the election outcome
remains unpredictable. An analysis
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by the Latin American Center for Strategic Geopolitics (CELAG), a
regional think tank that monitors electoral trends across Latin
America, notes that TResearch’s findings in the 2021 elections
proved to be closer to the final results than those of CID Gallup or
the Honduran market research firm Paradigma.

 

 

What Institutions are in Charge of Honduras’s Elections?
Elections in Honduras are overseen, organized, and certified by the
National Electoral Council
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an independent three-member board composed of representatives from
each major party. The current councillors are CNE President Ana Paola
Hall from the Liberal Party, Cosette López from the National Party,
and Marlon Ochoa from LIBRE. 

Honduras also has a second independent electoral body, the Electoral
Justice Tribunal [[link removed]] (TJE). Like the
CNE, it consists of one representative from each of the three major
parties. It is tasked with resolving electoral disputes, and its
current members are TJE President Mario Flores Urrutia from the
National Party, Miriam Barahona from the Liberal Party, and Mario
Morazán from LIBRE. 

Both electoral bodies have been criticized
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for lacking independence and impartiality. Their three-member
structure, with each seat tied to a major political party, makes them
susceptible to partisan influence and — as most decisions are taken
by majority vote rather than by consensus — allows two parties to
consistently outvote the third.

 

Is the Army Involved in the Election?
As in a number of other Latin American countries, the Honduran armed
forces [[link removed]] are
constitutionally mandated to play a key role in electoral logistics.
They are responsible for the custody, transport, and safeguarding of
electoral materials along with other security-related tasks. For the
current elections, however, the CNE has contracted the transportation
of electoral materials to a private company instead of relying solely
on the military.

Analysts, politicians, watchdog groups, and the president of the CNE
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have criticized
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the military’s conduct during these elections, particularly after
the head of the armed forces — who is perceived to be aligned with
LIBRE — requested
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that the CNE provide the military with tally sheets on election day to
perform an independent count. They argue
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that this request exceeds the military’s electoral mandate as
defined by the constitution.

In addition, the elections will be held during a partial state of
emergency, raising concerns
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from human rights groups that this may impact the vote’s integrity.
The government maintains that the state of emergency is limited to
specific regions plagued by security issues and that it does not
suspend political rights.

 

Will the Election be Free, Fair, and Transparent?
Elections in Honduras have been contested in the past — most notably
in 2017, when independent and international observers concluded that
the results could not be trusted
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Many of the transparency and security measures — such as biometric
scans and certain features of the preliminary results system
(discussed below) — now in place have been introduced in response
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to the controversy surrounding the 2017 elections.

With over 43 national and 25 international organizations observing
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the process, these elections will be the most heavily monitored
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in Honduran history, according to CNE Councillor Marlon Ochoa.

On election day, voters’ identities will be verified through a
biometric system
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that scans their fingerprints and compares them against the National
Registry of Persons’ database.

The Preliminary Results Transmission System (TREP), which is expected
to deliver the preliminary results on election night, has robust
transparency safeguards
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The CNE and the political parties will have simultaneous access to the
tally sheets, which will undergo three verification checks. At the
voting centers, workers will compare the original tally sheets with
digital versions produced from scans of the tally sheets, and any
corrections they make will be logged. Next, the CNE’s server will
automatically compare the original and digital tally sheets again to
detect any errors. All tally sheets will then be published, but those
with discrepancies will not be included in the preliminary vote count.
Starting the morning after election day, the CNE will review all tally
sheets once more, and any corrections made must be unanimously
approved by the three CNE councillors. These CNE-reviewed tally sheets
will form the basis for certifying the final election results, which
the CNE has 30 days to complete. 

Nevertheless, delays and other problems during Honduras’s primary
elections in March, along with internal divisions within the CNE that
have slowed electoral preparations, have further eroded public trust
in both the institution and the election as a whole. In addition, the
current electoral campaign has been marked by widespread allegations
of plans to commit fraud or to subvert a legitimate electoral
outcome. 

 

What Fraud Allegations are Being Made?
On November 4, the Organization of American States’ (OAS’s)
electoral observation mission expressed concern
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that electoral authorities must not receive undue pressure. This was
quickly seconded
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by the OAS Secretary General and the US Secretary of State. 

The OAS statements appeared to come in response to two actions taken
by Honduran authorities. First, the attorney general announced an
investigation into audio recordings
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of the National Party–affiliated CNE councillor allegedly conspiring
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to commit fraud and interfere with the election, though the opposition
claims
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that the recordings are AI-generated
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The second controversy surrounds an indictment against two
opposition-affiliated TJE magistrates, prompting an ongoing
impeachment process. They are charged with abuse of authority for
issuing a ruling without convening the third magistrate, who is
affiliated with LIBRE. The impeachment proceedings
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are now before the Supreme Court of Honduras.

The credence given to the audio recordings appears to vary depending
on political party affiliation. In response to the content, along with
reported failures
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in tests of the TREP system, presidential candidate Rixi Moncada
announced
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that LIBRE will not recognize the TREP’s preliminary results and
will instead insist on waiting until all physical voting center tally
sheets have been counted.

The opposition also argues that LIBRE refused to extend Congress’s
regular session, which ended on October 31, so its majority on the
Congress’s nine-member permanent committee — which handles
administrative matters when the legislature is out of session — can
choose
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the president in the event of an electoral crisis. LIBRE maintains
that the session was not extended due to disagreements over the budget
and policy and that the permanent committee cannot
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pass laws or declare an election winner, a decision that would instead
be made by the full Congress in an extraordinary session.

It’s worth noting the varying positions of Honduran civil society
organizations. Some organizations, like the Association of Judges for
Democracy, have warned
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that disproportionate and unfounded criticisms of Honduras’s
judicial institutions undermine the nation’s democratic
institutions. Others — like the Network for the Defense of Democracy
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which includes groups such as the Association for a More Just Society
and the National Anticorruption Council — have expressed concern
that certain practices, including prosecutorial actions and the
selective targeting of CNE and TJE officials, amount to intimidation
tactics that threaten the legitimacy, transparency, and independence
of the electoral process.

 

What Role has the US Played in this Election?
The US has been deeply involved in Honduran politics for many decades.
In the early 1980s, the Pentagon and US intelligence agencies had a
close relationship with the Honduran military dictatorship and used
Honduras as a platform to intervene in neighboring countries,
particularly Nicaragua, where the US strongly supported the right-wing
contra insurgency. In 2009, the US government opposed the return
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to power of ousted President Manuel Zelaya following a right-wing
military coup, effectively ensuring the success of the coup. In 2017,
the US administration endorsed
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Juan Orlando Hernández’s reelection despite credible fraud
allegations echoed by independent electoral observers as well as the
Honduran constitution’s prohibition on reelection.   

During the current electoral process, several US Republican lawmakers,
including Maria Elvira Salazar
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Gimenez [[link removed]], as well
as US Attorney General Pam Bondi have warned
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might commit election fraud, have tried to link
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the current government to drug trafficking from Venezuela, and have
claimed that Rixi Moncada’s campaign is funded
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de los Soles” and Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro
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Committee on Foreign Affairs Republican majority’s Twitter account
has also posted threads demonizing
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government and alleging it will rig
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upcoming elections. No evidence has been presented to support any of
these allegations.

During a recent House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing on the
Honduran elections, Rep. Salazar praised the 2009 coup and, having
previously referred to Moncada as a “communist,” stated
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“I am not telling you who to vote for. All I am saying is do not
elect a communist.” At the hearing, Rep. Joaquin Castro highlighted
the conflicts of interest involving one of the witnesses, Carlos
Trujillo [[link removed]]
— President Trump’s former ambassador to the Organization of
American States and a lobbyist whose firm previously represented
several Honduran companies, including Próspera, which is currently
suing the Honduran government. Trujillo’s testimony was heavily
biased against the Castro government and Moncada. He also asserts
unequivocally that LIBRE is attempting to rig the elections. 

On November 22, echoing the opposition’s claim that LIBRE lawmakers
in the permanent committee will try to choose the next president, US
Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau expressed concern
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elections after speaking with unidentified members of the Honduran
business community.

 

What Could Go Wrong?
Fearing that any delay could create opportunities to manipulate the
vote, opposition supporters have expressed concern that the CNE must
quickly announce a winner based on the TREP’s preliminary results on
election night. LIBRE supporters, however, have noted that their
strongest support comes from rural areas, where communications are
less reliable and may be blocked due to geography, infrastructure
challenges, or potential human interference. They fear that early
results from the oppositions’ urban support base will favor the
opposition and prompt rejection of the official results if the trend
reverses later. Either scenario could spark demonstrations by
candidates’ supporters, increasing the potential for violence.
Highlighting the risks, human rights groups note that gangs
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caused chaos during the 2017 elections.

Ultimately, a widely accepted outcome will depend on election day
proceeding smoothly, with transparency measures and logistics
functioning without major issues. Even so, LIBRE and the other two
opposing parties appear to be highly confident that they will win, and
there is a significant risk that each side will refuse to recognize
the results if they lose. Given that the election is expected to be
very close and that early electoral trends favoring certain candidates
or parties may emerge, election watchers should wait until the
TREP’s final results are clear before announcing a winner. Depending
on how the situation develops, it may be prudent to await the CNE’s
official declaration, which can take up to 30 days after the election.

 

_CEPR will be present in Honduras during the elections as accredited
electoral observers. This Q and A has been prepared based on research,
media monitoring, and discussions with Honduran political parties and
civil society organizations._

 

_The Center for Economic and Policy Research promotes democratic
debate on issues that affect people’s lives, in the US and other
parts of the world. Through rigorous, independent research and
analysis we strive to provide the general public and policymakers with
the tools to better understand the problems and choices that they
face. CEPR is committed to presenting issues in an accurate and
understandable manner, so that the public is better prepared to choose
among various policy options._

* Honduras
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* genereal elections
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