The Israeli government has played Donald Trump like a violin. Netanyahu has welcomed Trump’s entirely bogus love for the Jews, which helps Bibi equate criticism of his own barbarism with antisemitism. It all worked beautifully—until now.
Never underestimate Trump’s willingness to throw friends under the bus when that proves expedient. Trump’s latest bromance, with Saudi Arabia’s crown price and de facto leader Mohammed bin Salman, shifts the regional balance of power. And there is absolutely nothing Netanyahu can do about it.
Until this week’s warm reception for MBS at the White House, this was the state of play: The Gaza cease-fire was holding, but just barely. And despite a lot of posturing, success in moving from a cease-fire to the kind of regional settlement that Trump has been touting was remote if not defunct.
From Bibi’s perspective, the destruction of Iran’s nuclear capacity, the severe weakening of Iran’s capacity to support Hezbollah, and the decapitation of Hamas leadership, however grotesque in terms of violating international law, had shifted the regional balance of power in Israel’s favor. Gaza was rubble, and the issue of Palestinian statehood continued to be put off for another day.
But Trump’s courtship of MBS, in Trump’s usual performative and half-baked manner, intended as a distraction from Trump’s budget and Epstein woes, portends a different Mideast shift. And despite Israel’s usual capacity to rile up many American Jews to influence Washington, in this case Bibi is impotent to alter U.S. policy. Synagogues may have ubiquitous signs that say, “We stand with Israel,” but there will be none that read, “Watch out for MBS.”
Even before he had any kind of deal with MBS on recognition of Israel or anything else, Trump agreed to sell the Saudis F-35 fighter jets. That’s the kind of concession you make as part of a final deal, not as a welcome gift.
The Wall Street Journal quotes Bradley Bowman of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies: “You can’t give Saudi Arabia the U.S.’s most advanced fighter and have it not affect Israel’s qualitative military edge.” The Saudis also have very close trade and military ties with China, and there are no solid assurances about what would not be shared with Beijing. A similar proposed sale of F-35s to the United Arab Emirates was rejected precisely because of such concerns.
At the White House, Trump touted other parts of a supposed grand bargain with the Saudis, all of which were politely swatted down by MBS. No, Saudi Arabia is not ready to have a settlement with Israel, certainly not unless the Palestinian question is resolved. No, Saudi Arabia is not about to join the Abraham Accords.
And while Trump claimed that Saudi Arabia will invest as much as a trillion dollars in U.S. private industry, that’s almost the total value of the Saudi sovereign wealth fund. Saudi international investments actually declined last year to 17.3 percent of total fund assets, down from 29 percent in 2021. Most of the fund is tied up in domestic projects, and the kingdom has a large budget deficit this year because of the declining price of oil.
The press has played the headline story as Trump excusing MBS for his role in the assassination of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi. But the deeper story is the foreign-policy concessions in exchange for Trump family grift.
Since Trump’s election a year ago, Dar Global, a Trump Organization partner with close ties to the Saudi government, has announced at least four Trump-branded developments in Saudi Arabia. And more will come.
“It shifts the power balance in the Middle East,” says a former leader of AIPAC. “The Saudis become the strongest power in the region by far, without Trump getting anything in return for the U.S., other than more riches for his family.”
Robert Kuttner is co-founder and co-editor of The American Prospect, and professor at Brandeis University’s Heller School. His latest book is Going Big: FDR’s Legacy, Biden’s New Deal, and the Struggle to Save Democracy.
