Why Democrats won the government shutdown

The government shutdown is over, and a contingent of Democrats are angry, believing that their lawmakers caved and should have held out longer to force Republicans to extend health care subsidies to ensure millions of Americans don’t lose their health insurance or see their premiums skyrocket.

But what if I told you that Democrats actually won the shutdown war? Here’s why.

Democrats successfully used the shutdown to bring the issue of health care to the forefront

Voters now know that Democrats tried to help lower their health care costs, but were blocked from doing so by Republicans—who at the end of the day were never going to extend Affordable Care Act subsidies no matter how long the shutdown dragged on. 

A Navigator Research poll published Wednesday found that 47% of Americans blame Trump and Republicans in Congress for rising health care costs, while just 21% blame congressional Democrats, after Democrats proved they were fighting to lower their premiums.

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Health care is one of Democrats' best issue areas. In fact, it was the issue that helped Democrats retake control of the House in the 2018 midterms. 

In 2026, when cost of living is going to be the key issue, Democrats can accurately point out that Republicans refused to help their health care costs go down by extending Obamacare subsidies.

What’s more, the shutdown has now forced Republicans to articulate what their plans are to lower health care costs. And spoiler alert: Those plans are not popular.

For the most part, Republicans are being cagey about their health care proposals.

But the ones who have spoken about their plans have basically just described yet another Obamacare repeal—a deeply unpopular proposal that voters already rejected back in 2017 and that Republicans decided to abandon once before out of fear they’d face yet another electoral drubbing. 

Good luck to Republicans who now have to run on that proposal in 2026.

The shutdown ended with polls showing voters blamed Republicans over Democrats for the whole ordeal

Polling throughout the longest shutdown in history showed that voters blamed Trump and Republicans in Congress for the ordeal. However, there were signs that Democrats were starting to shoulder more blame, as air travel melted down and food stamp benefits were shut off.

A YouGov/Economist survey released on Tuesday found that blame for the shutdown was nearly even, with 36% blaming Trump and congressional Republicans, while 34% blamed congressional Democrats. That was a stark change from three weeks ago, when YouGov/the Economist found that 39% blamed Trump and Republicans in Congress, and 31% blamed congressional Democrats. 

Ultimately, ending the shutdown now prevented a reversal in Democrats' fortunes on the issue.

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Trump's approval fell dramatically during the shutdown battle

On Sept. 30, the day before the shutdown began, Trump's approval was at -12, according to an  average from FiftyPlusOne, a polling aggregator launched by former FiveThirtyEight staffers.

Today, Trump's approval is 16 points underwater, a noticeable decline.

In fact, Trump's average approval rating is now under 40%, according to FiftyPlusOne—an absolutely dismal number that, if held, will tank Republicans in the 2026 midterms.

The shutdown gave Democrats a ton of material to work with for the midterms

Ultimately, the minutiae of the government shutdown—including who was to blame and who “caved” first—is unlikely to be salient for voters a year from now. Voters have the attention span of fish, with events that took place a week ago already fading from people’s memories.

But the shutdown did provide good images for Democrats to use in ads in the midterms.

Who can forget the images of a smiling Trump at a “Great Gatsby”-themed Halloween party, while he was cutting off food stamps to the poorest Americans. Or the images of Trump demolishing the East Wing of the White House to build an ostentatious $300 million ballroom, while Americans went unpaid and food stamp money was running dry.

In fact, the Navigator Research poll found those images will be salient in midterm advertising. The pollster asked respondents whether they agreed more with a statement asking if Trump’s lavish spending during the shutdown was appropriate, or whether people angry over Trump’s spending is an “overreaction.”

By a massive 38-point margin, Americans agreed more with the statement that his spending was inappropriate, as opposed to those who thought it was an overreaction. 

Ultimately, while Democrats may be frustrated by the end of the shutdown, they shouldn’t despair. Trump is now the most unpopular he’s ever been this term. Democrats have successfully brought the topic of conversation back to health care where they excel. And there are lasting images of Trump being a selfish egomaniac while he tried to starve the poor. 

Good luck to Republicans having to run on that next November. 

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