Also: Redistricting & America's Economic Outlook

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Expert analysis made easy. Breaking down the news with data, charts, and maps.

Edited by Brady Africk and Lexi Baker

Happy Thursday! In today’s newsletter, we examine Zohran Mamdani’s mayoral win, California’s redistricting bill, and how the state of America’s economy affects voters’ choices.

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1. Broadening Bases

01 Doar ([link removed] )

Topline: Last week, Zohran Mamdani won the Hispanic vote in the Bronx after losing it to Andrew Cuomo in the primary—an electoral shift that mirrors larger patterns in New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial elections. AEI’s Robert Doar outlines ([link removed] ) how these results underscore the importance of building welcoming coalitions.

Shifting Trends: In exit polls, Mikie Sherrill won the Hispanic vote in New Jersey by 37 points—28 more points than Kamala Harris won in that state a year ago. In Virginia, Abigail Spanberger carried the Hispanic vote by 34 points in exit polls.

The New York Picture: The role of American diversity is particularly visible in New York City, where only 31.3 percent of the population is white. Doar suggests that these electoral shifts could be attributable to President Trump’s rhetoric and policies on immigration—as Immigration and Customs Enforcement has targeted immigrants with legal status.

"So if Republicans want to have an electoral future, to win back their 2024 supporters and expand their coalition, they need to make sure voters from all backgrounds feel welcome in the party. We know foreign-born American citizens and their children are attracted to Republicans’ perspective on work, family, faith, and country. But they won’t abide racism. They want practical solutions to day-to-day problems for all Americans.”

—Robert Doar ([link removed] )

More on Voters
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2. Redistricting Reality

02 Lane ([link removed] )

Topline: Proposition 50, California’s redistricting ballot measure, passed by a margin of 64 to 36 percent on November 5. AEI’s Charles Lane warns ([link removed] ) that the measure sets a dangerous precedent, allowing politicians to pick their votes and deepening polarization.

What It Means: The bill authorizes the California legislature to redraw the state's 52 congressional districts, a move that could sharply reduce Republican representation. According to the Cook Political Report, 17 percent of the decline in competitive districts from 1997 to 2017 is attributable to redistricting. Under California’s new bill, only 17 of 435 congressional races are expected to be toss-ups.

Following Suit: This year, Texas became the first state to sign a redistricting bill in August—potentially creating five new GOP seats. Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio each followed suit, adding a collective four potential Republican seats.

"Most ordinary Americans have no interest in such a future. The people who dominate our political parties, however, seem perfectly happy to risk it.”

—Charles Lane ([link removed] )

More on Redistricting
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3. Midterms and Monetary Policy

03 Lachman-1 ([link removed] )

Topline: The US economy is facing stubbornly high prices, a bloated deficit, and the threat of an AI-driven asset bubble. AEI’s Desmond Lachman asserts ([link removed] ) that President Trump’s economic mismanagement is a key factor behind the Democrats’ recent successes in the polls—and sets Republicans up for further losses the midterms.

Foreign Investment: Currently, foreign investors own roughly 30 percent of $29 trillion in US Treasury bonds. Lachman warns that America’s growing deficit and President Trump’s attacks on the Federal Reserve’s independence could erode investor confidence. Should foreign demand for Treasury bonds weaken, the dollar will likely fall, while yields on 10-year Treasury bonds—and, consequently, mortgage rates—will climb.

Inflation: President Trump’s tariff hikes are likely to drive inflation above 3 percent. With surveys indicating that inflation and housing affordability rank among voters’ top economic concerns, Lachman argues that the administration has taken few meaningful steps to ease these pressures.

"While no one knows when the stock market and credit market bubbles will burst, Trump is playing with fire by pursuing a reckless budget and monetary policy. All of this should encourage a rethink of the overall economic strategy if the Republican Party is to stand a chance at the polls next November. Budget policy should become more restrained, central bank independence should be placed beyond question, and a more consistent and less aggressive import tariff policy should be pursued.”

—Desmond Lachman ([link removed] )

More on the Economy
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Dive into More Data

04 Cooper ([link removed] )

Ending a War in Taiwan ([link removed] )

More on Taiwan
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05 Pielke Jr ([link removed] )

The Global Population Crisis Myth ([link removed] )

More on Global Population
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Special thanks to Isabella Grunspan and Drew Kirkpatrick!

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