Following the deadly anti-gang raid in Rio de Janeiro last week that left a triple-digit body count, I’ve been thinking about the influence of the US shift toward treating Latin America’s organized crime groups as “terrorists.”
In the wake of the historically lethal operation, Rio de Janeiro state Governor Cláudio Castro invoked the threat of “narcoterrorism.” Meanwhile, US strikes killed half a dozen more suspected drug traffickers in international waters.
For decades, the United States has set the tone for regional security policy, influencing the limits of what’s considered acceptable. Under Trump, Washington has loudly endorsed aggressive approaches, and some Latin American authorities may be taking that as permission to double down.
So-called “mano dura” policies have been tried in many contexts throughout the region over many decades. Although they rarely deliver sustainable results, they remain politically popular. In Rio, a poll of more than 600 residents found more than half supported the recent raid.
El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele and Ecuador’s Daniel Noboa both secured new presidential terms by running on tough-on-crime reputations.
At the same time, other regional leaders, including Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, seem to recognize the limitations of addressing organized crime through a purely militaristic lens. Lula – along with his counterparts in Mexico and Colombia – has criticized the US strikes and called for an investigation into the “massacre” in Rio.
Our 15 years of experience covering organized crime in Latin America and the Caribbean has shown that there’s no simple fix for this complex problem. While operations like the raid in Rio and the US strikes can temporarily shift criminal dynamics, sustainably impacting organized crime would require a more holistic approach. We’ll be watching closely as the consequences unfold.
