Nov. 3, 2025

Permission to republish original opeds and cartoons granted.

 

Polls Understated Ciattarelli In 2021 By 5 Points. Can Republicans Overperform In New Jersey Again?

By Robert Romano

Four years ago, Jack Ciattarelli came a hair’s breadth away from being elected New Jersey governor in an off-year election with Democrat Joe Biden in the White House, the same night Glenn Youngkin won in Virginia, and so Republicans nominated him again. 

In 2021, Ciattarelli came much closer than expected — all of the polls showed him trailing incumbent Phil Murphy by an average of 7.8 points — but when the election rolled around, he only lost by 2.8 percentage points, 51 percent to 48.2 percent. The distance was 84,000 votes.

Even Trafalgar Group, which had the most accurate poll that cycle, slightly overstated Murphy’s margin of victory at 4 points, 49 percent to 45 percent. 

This is all significant because in 2025, while Ciattarelli has trailed almost every single poll taken this cycle with the exception of one Hill-Emerson poll in September that had him tied to Democratic U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill, this time he is only trailing by 3.3 percentage points in the average of polls. It’s much closer this time.

And Trafalgar this time has the race within 1 point, Sherrill at 45 percent and Ciattarelli at 44 percent. 

If the polls are as far off as they were last time — 5 points is nothing to sneeze at — then it could be a very good night for Ciattarelli. 

This late in the race, Ciattarelli — who hasn’t led a single poll this cycle in the average — must be hoping the polls are wrong. Besides campaigning really hard, there’s not much else to do. Either way, a Republican win would be viewed as an improbable come from behind victory that was unexpected nationally — but perhaps in hindsight would have appeared obvious.

Another thing that could mean it’s closer than expected in New Jersey is Ciattarelli is competing for an open seat, with New Jersey Democratic Governor Phil Murphy term-limited. More, generally, open seats are easier to compete for than seats with an incumbent seeking reelection, usually. 

But a headwind for Ciattarelli and Republicans is the political climate. Biden is no longer in the president. With Republican President Donald Trump in the White House, the off-year elections of 2025 and 2026 are expected to lean Democratic this cycle. Historically, that’s what usually happens. 

New Jersey in particular has been like clockwork. In 2021, with a Democrat in the White House, the Republican overperformed. With these governors’ races, an exception to the off-year rule favoring the national opposition party seems to be that incumbents are less vulnerable. So, Murphy was able to withstand these swings in 2021 and get re-elected. 

But otherwise, in 2017, with a Republican in the White House, the Democrat won. In 2009, with a Democrat in the White House, the Republican won. In 2001, with a Republican president, the Democrat won. 

So, if anything, with history as any guide, and with Trump in the White House, in 2025 one might expect the Democrats to do better than expected in not just New Jersey, but also Virginia. With the elections now imminent, there’s only one way to find out. Stay tuned.

Robert Romano is the Executive Director of Americans for Limited Government. 

To view online: https://dailytorch.com/2025/11/polls-understated-ciattarelli-in-2021-by-5-points-can-republicans-overperform-in-new-jersey-again/ 

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Once The Filibuster Is Gone, Things Will Never Be The Same

Nov. 1, 2025, Fairfax, Va.—Americans for Limited Government Executive Director Robert Romano today issued the following statement responding to President Donald Trump’s Oct. 30 call on Truth Social to end the Senate filibuster:

“Democrats want Senate Republicans to end the filibuster. That’s why they keep saying Republicans have the votes to pass the continuing resolution. As usual, the question Republicans have to ask themselves is if they are okay with Democrats governing in the same way when they ultimately come back to power, weighing the fact that they already tried to do this in 2022 and failed. Democrats always win the trifecta of the House, Senate and White House when they win the Presidency for the past century. They’ll try again if not after 2028 then after 2032. It’s going to happen and when it does the party looks like it will be even more radical than it is today.

“The key filibuster question for the President and Republicans is whether they are fully prepared to implement an agenda that preemptively offsets what Democrats would do without the filibuster? Make more states? Pack the Supreme Court? If Trump lacks the votes in the Senate to do those things specifically, then there will be no offset for when the Democrats come back to power, pack the House with illegal aliens in the Census and with mass amnesty, pack the Senate with more blue states like D.C. and Puerto Rico and pack the Supreme Court. Medicare for all? You name it, they’ll do it. Is it worth the cost?

“Another factor to consider are the 2026 Congressional midterms. Senate races will matter a whole lot more without the filibuster. Maybe that can be beneficial in boosting turnout, but the President should be careful what he wishes for. Could abolishing the filibuster galvanize the opposition? Or would the public just shrug?

“The President must also be able to count to 50 in the Senate. If he truly has the votes to abolish the filibuster on legislation, then the American people expect there to be substantial reforms. There’s no turning back. Can he get voter identification with a citizenship requirement in every federal election? Or expand presidential tariff authorities to make the Supreme Court case moot? Restructure Social Security to get a better return on investment? Offer big baby bucks (needs to compete with long term benefits of college degrees so do the math) to end the fertility collapse once and for all? Spend money to reindustrialize America rapidly and modernize the military? Reform the federal civil service and bureaucracy? Intel reform? Dismantle weaponization? End DEI and ESG? If we’re breaking the filibuster, it better be for something more important than a clean continuing resolution, because when the other side gets back into power, they will do the same thing.

“The only reason to do a clean continuing resolution is to preserve bipartisan oversight of Congressional appropriations and to allow time for appropriators to work. If the parties want to continue to govern in a bipartisan way, then keep the Senate filibuster and reopen the government. If not, the sky’s the limit — and that’s the problem. That goes for both sides. This is irreversible. It’s like Daffy Duck eating the gunpowder and swallowing the match. You can only do it once.”

To view online: https://getliberty.org/2025/11/once-the-filibuster-is-gone-things-will-never-be-the-same/