October 31, 2025

Elections are often fights between different policies and personalities. The 2026 midterms are shaping up to be different. Next year, control of Congress will be decided on voting and election rules. From voter suppression to election subversion to federal interference, the groundwork of this fight is already being laid. 

But no aspect of the election is being more hotly contested right now than the battle over congressional maps. Ever since Donald Trump kicked off a wave of Republican mid-cycle gerrymandering, the political landscape has changed dramatically.

At first, when Texas moved forward, Democrats were entirely on the defensive. But slowly and surely, they have developed a new game plan to counter the GOP’s strategy. And if Democrats succeed a year from now, we may well look back on the final weeks of October as the moment when an important shift took place.

In recent days and weeks, we have seen clear signs of an opposition movement that has learned from the last nine months, grown more confident and is poised to reap electoral victories on Tuesday.

No one knows for certain what the outcome of the elections will be, but a Democratic sweep seems quite likely. In New York City, I expect Zohran Mamdani to win by a comfortable margin. Across the river, Democrat Mikie Sherrill is the clear favorite to defeat right-wing extremist Jack Ciattarelli in New Jersey’s gubernatorial election. 

Meanwhile, Abigail Spanberger appears on track to score a decisive win in Virginia — flipping the governor’s mansion from red to blue — while also solidifying a Democratic majority in both chambers of the state legislature.

If that comes to pass, it will put Democrats on a trajectory to redraw the state’s congressional map in 2026. Several other pieces need to fall into place, but a big night on Tuesday would certainly lend momentum to the cause.

As for what a Virginia redraw would look like, I expect Democrats to gain at least three — and perhaps four — seats. The current delegation stands at six Democrats and five Republicans, which is, by any objective measure, effectively a GOP gerrymander. A 9–2 map could be considered objectively fair, while the 10–1 map I favor would require Democrats to put a thumb on the scale.

Perhaps the most closely watched election returns will come from California, where Proposition 50 is on the ballot. If passed by voters, it would redraw California’s congressional map for 2026 — potentially flipping as many as five congressional seats from red to blue.

In many respects, the results of this contest will have the most national significance for three reasons. First, the addition of five Democratic seats would offset Texas’s partisan redraw. Second, it would demonstrate to Democratic governors and legislatures around the country that enacting new maps can be good politics — alleviating concerns that Democrats could be punished politically for taking such steps.

Third, and most importantly, it would prove that Democrats have real momentum at the national level in the fight for control of Congress. Winning it on a big stage would set the right tone for Democrats moving forward.

That momentum, however, will only pay dividends if Democrats capitalize on it. So, after Tuesday, expect more attention to focus on other Democratic-controlled states such as Colorado, Illinois, Maryland, Oregon, and Washington.

Perhaps the most overlooked opportunities for Democrats are playing out in court. In New York, my law firm is suing the state to redraw fairer maps. In addition, opponents of the GOP power grab are suing to block new gerrymandered maps in Texas, Missouri, and North Carolina.

In many of those cases, my law firm is also leading the effort. Litigation in Wisconsin and Utah could also lead to positive outcomes for Democrats that most pundits have yet to fully account for.

This is not to say that there are no obstacles ahead. Republicans continue to pressure even more GOP-controlled states to gerrymander their maps. And we are still awaiting a Supreme Court ruling in a crucial Voting Rights Act case that could devastate minority voting power across much of the South.

Hanging over all of this is the threat that Donald Trump will use the full power of the federal government to undermine free and fair elections — or to thwart the will of the electorate.

As we stand a few days ahead of the 2025 election and a year before the critical midterms, there is much to worry about. There will be plenty of time after next Tuesday to do just that. But for now, I am focused on enjoying the short-term opportunities directly in front of us. I hope you can too.