Why does Jerome Powell keep underselling the U.S. Economy?
Yesterday he said we are experiencing “moderate growth," and he wrongly declared that the United States is limping along at a 1.6% GDP growth rate, and that he expects a sub 2% growth rate next year.
Talk about the tyranny of low expectations.
In reality, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta calculates we’ve been growing at almost 4% growth for the past six months.
Powell remains hyper-critical of Trump’s trade policies, and said he expects “some significant inflation… from tariffs” that will show up “pretty soon.”
He’s only half-right at best.
Tariffs are taxes that reduce growth, and in isolation will spill into higher consumer prices (just look at what has happened to coffee prices due to tariffs of up to 50% on Brazilian and Colombian coffee beans).
But Powell rarely, if ever, tells the world that Trump’s tax cuts, his cost-cutting deregulations, his “drill, baby, drill” energy strategies that have produced record low oil and gas, and his many productive trade deals have been economic boons.
These pro-growth policies are all disinflationary.
The biggest problem at the Fed is that, as Steve Forbes has correctly pointed out, Powell and his cadre of 300 PhD economists still believe that growth causes inflation.
Larry Kudlow is right: it is time for Powell to go.