 | October 30, 2025 This month’s newsletter features an update to a timeline of milestones in Iran’s nuclear program, as well as news about Tehran’s response to the snapback of United Nations sanctions and China’s mechanisms for evading sanctions on imports of Iranian oil. Also featured are profiles of companies that will likely be involved in any effort by Iran to resume its nuclear activities. Additions to the Iran Watch library include the still-unfolding reactions of several countries to snapback, recent U.S. and allied sanctions and enforcement actions, and statements by Iran and Russia marking the entry into force of their strategic partnership agreement. Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up to receive the newsletter in your inbox, or view the newsletter in your browser. |
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| AEOI head Mohammad Eslami visits a nuclear site in Ardabil Province. (Photo Credit: Atomic Energy Organization of Iran) |
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| Iran’s nuclear program surged ahead in recent years, notably with large increases in Tehran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium, but then was set back by Israeli and U.S. airstrikes in the summer of 2025. The program has now entered an uncertain phase, with Iran’s diplomatic and nuclear intentions unclear and the stage set for a contest between the Western allies and China and Russia over the legitimacy of U.N. sanctions recently restored by the 2015 nuclear deal’s snapback mechanism. This timeline traces milestones in Iran’s nuclear progress from the program’s origins in the 1960s to the revelations of its military dimensions in the early 2000s, sanctions and diplomacy in the 2010s, rapid expansion following the collapse of the nuclear deal in 2018, and the bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities in 2025. |
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| Iran will likely rely on experienced domestic contractors to rebuild its nuclear program following the recent U.S. and Israeli strikes. A variety of state-owned and private enterprises have the expertise to furnish different aspects of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI)’s needs. |
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| The U.N. Security Council meets to discuss threats to international peace and security. (Photo Credit: United Nations/Manuel Elias) |
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| October 20, 2025: Ali Larijani, the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, said that Iran had cancelled a cooperation deal it had agreed upon with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in September, according to Iranian state media. Iran had threatened to cancel the agreement if United Nations sanctions against it were reimposed through the 2015 nuclear agreement's snapback mechanism. |
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| October 18, 2025: The Iranian foreign ministry issued a statement saying that it considered all provisions of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear agreement to be terminated. The foreign ministry statement said that Iran remained committed to diplomacy, but Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said earlier that Iran did not see a reason to negotiate with the three European parties to the JCPOA who triggered the agreement's snapback mechanism in August. |
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| October 5, 2025: China has been paying for Iranian oil using a barter-like system in which oil purchases are repaid through Chinese state-backed construction in Iran rather than bank transfers, according to current and former Western officials. An Iranian-controlled seller affiliated with Naftiran Intertrade Company (NICO) books crude sales to a Chinese buyer affiliated with sanctioned state-owned trader Zhuhai Zhenrong. The buyer deposits funds with a secretive financial mechanism referred to as Chuxin. Chuxin disburses money to Chinese contractors building Iranian infrastructure that is insured by state export-credit agency Sinosure (formerly China Export & Credit Insurance). According to some of the officials, up to USD $8.4 billion flowed through the conduit in 2024. |
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| Western governments and Russia and China continued to issue sharply divergent statements in regard to the snapback of U.N. sanctions. - The G7 issued a statement calling on all U.N. member states to implement the restored restrictions – October 10
- New Zealand announced that it had re-imposed its sanctions on Iran in order to comply with snapback – October 17
- China, Russia, and Iran wrote a joint letter to the Security Council stating that they consider the Council’s consideration of the Iranian nuclear issue to have expired – October 18
The United States continued its maximum pressure sanctions campaign, while both the United States and Australia acted to enforce existing sanctions laws. - The U.S. State Department sanctioned five individuals and a company affiliated with the SPND, including entities involved in an Iranian nuclear delegation to Russia – October 1
- The Treasury Department targeted an international network involved in procurement for Iran’s military and missile programs – October 1
- The Treasury Department also froze the assets of companies and individuals connected to Iraqi militia groups sponsored by Iran – October 9
- The State and Treasury Departments together sanctioned nearly a hundred entities involved in Iranian energy exports – October 9
- The Australian Federal Police charged a man for illicitly remitting currency to sanctioned Iranian banks – October 15
- The Pakistani captain of a vessel smuggling Iranian missile components to the Houthis was sentenced to 40 years in prison by a U.S. court – October 23
- The Treasury Department’s FinCEN published a report identifying illicit Iranian financial transactions that traveled through U.S. correspondent accounts in 2024 – October 23
Russia and Iran marked the entry into effect of the strategic partnership treaty they signed in January. - Russia claimed that the two countries have entered into “a fundamentally new stage of comprehensive strategic partnership” – October 2
- Iran hailed the agreement as enabling joint efforts to “confront the growing threats and challenges” Tehran and Moscow perceive from the West – October 3
- Russia has since given Iran emphatic rhetorical backing in its effort to delegitimize U.N. snapback sanctions – October 17
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| Iran Watch is a website published by the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control. The Wisconsin Project is a non-profit, non-partisan organization that conducts research, advocacy, and public education aimed at inhibiting strategic trade from contributing to the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.
Copyright © 2025 - Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control |
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