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Welcome to your Weekend Wire from Best for Britain, (where your author is trying to resist the urge to make this entire newsletter a farewell to Strictly Come Dancing’s Tess and Claudia).
This week saw Plaid Cymru trounce Reform UK in the Senedd by-election in Caerffili, increased pressure on the royal family - and the government - over the Prince Andrew allegations, and further moves by Rachel Reeves to pin the tail of Britain’s economic malaise firmly on the doleful Brexit donkey.
The Best for Britain Wire is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Ahead of all the red box chat over the next few weeks, at Best for Britain HQ, we hosted a webinar outlining all the key findings from our latest report into public attitudes towards the UK’s exit from the EU. Read on for much more on all that…
Plaid a blinder
North of the capital Caerdydd, the Welsh town of Caerffili was widely expected to wake on Friday to the turquoise haze of Reform UK. Instead, it was the Party of Wales, nationalist, centre-left Plaid Cymru, who romped to victory.
Their candidate Lindsay Whittle triumphed in the Senedd Cymru (Welsh Parliament) by-election, with 47.4% of the vote, to Reform UK’s 36%, gaining the seat from Labour, who came in a distant third on 11%. Reports suggested Reform UK were so confident in victory, they prepared a balloon laden celebration but were left deflated.
As journalist Will Hayward writes in his newsletter on Wales, there are a wealth of lessons to be learned from the results for all progressive parties, ahead of next May’s full slate of Senedd elections, and boundary shake up, including that Labour’s vote “has totally and utterly collapsed” in Wales.
But perhaps most interesting is that even though this was a by-election, turnout increased from 2021’s 44% to 50.4%, higher than the previous average across Wales. As Hayward rightly notes, “this clearly indicates that people felt their vote mattered”. There are certainly worse places to be than that.
(Dis)grace and favour
The publication of Virgina Giuffre’s posthumous memoir, Nobody’s Girl, made global headlines this week. The campaigner and advocate for sex trafficking survivors has written about her abuse at the hands of the paedophile, convicted sex offender and billionaire Jeffrey Epstein, who died in prison awaiting trial. Giuffre’s book also alleged that she had been forced to have sex with Prince Andrew three times, including when she was 17. He denies all the allegations.
But royals and the government faced yet more pressure to answer questions about the Prince’s current rent-free residence in Windsor’s Royal Lodge, as reported by the Times, after he voluntarily relinquished his titles, including the Duke of York, last week. There are more details in this Politico piece, outlining the issues facing the royal funding system.
While polling by Ipsos found an “overwhelming majority” (88%) of Brits think it was definitely or probably the right decision for Prince Andrew to no longer use his official titles, and more than four in five (82%) have an unfavourable view of him. Campaign group Republic is demanding a “full, unrelenting investigation” into royal links to Epstein and efforts to protect the Prince.
Grooming gangs inquiry
Another area the government came under pressure for this week, including during a feisty PMQs session, was the ongoing row over the national inquiry into grooming gangs, or, as it’s also known, group-based child sexual exploitation and abuse (CSEA), announced earlier this year.
The inquiry process has been thrown into disarray after two candidates to chair the probe stepped aside amid concerns over their professional background in policing and social work - areas where there has been criticism over a lack of accountability. While five women have quit the victims liaison panel, in protest at the government’s handling of the set-up thus far.
Four of those who resigned said they would consider returning if safeguarding minister Jess Phillips goes, while five women still on the panel say they will only stay if she remains in post.
The BBC published a helpful, in-depth explainer on the crisis, how we got here, and what’s next.
Brexit and the Budget
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Well, as the government increasingly highlights Brexit as a key economic challenge ahead of the Budget, we thought what better time to highlight all our latest findings in a must-see webinar on our recent report into public attitudes on Brexit.
The session featured Best for Britain CEO Naomi Smith, policy director Tom Brufatto, and political economist, author, and columnist Will Hutton. With so much excellent analysis, we just hope Rachel Reeves was listening in!
You can watch back the panel via this link.
Progressive realism?
Chancellor Rachel Reeves put some further meat on the pre-Budget bones this week, again highlighting that Britain’s economy and productivity “have been weaker” after Brexit than even the fiscal watchdog, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) had originally predicted.
Speaking at a Regional Investment Summit in Birmingham on Tuesday, Reeves insisted: “I am determined that the past doesn’t define our future and that we do achieve that economic growth and productivity with good jobs in all parts of the country.”
But she stressed that her plans were “based on the world as it is, not necessarily the world as I might like it to be” with global volatility and a hike in defence spending adding fiscal “pressure”.
It came as inflation unexpectedly remained steady at 3.8% in September, with rising petrol prices offset by easing food costs, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures.
Keir Oh Dear
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The Labour deputy leadership contest results are set to be revealed today, with most expecting former Commons leader Lucy Powell to beat rival Bridget Phillipson, the education secretary.
A final poll published by Survation, for party bible LabourList, on Thursday found Phillipson had shrunk the gap, but Powell continued to enjoy a hefty lead in the race to succeed Angela Rayner - in what will likely be seen as members demanding Starmer’s government refresh its approach.
Some 57% of Labour members said they backed Powell, against 40% supporting Phillipson, the poll found. It also suggested Powell had over 80% support among members who thought Labour was heading in the wrong direction – a group now accounting for more than half the party.
Who runs the world?
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(Girls.) Well, no, not really. But in two fairly significant global leadership developments in the past week, Japanese politician and Liberal Democratic Party leader Sanae Takaichi won a historic vote to become the country’s first female prime minister, after securing a coalition.
A protege of late PM Shinzo Abe, she has been praised by Trump, and, as a hardliner and admirer of Margaret Thatcher, is known as ‘Japan’s Iron Lady’. Her elevation has not met with universal feminist acclaim, due to her conservative views on family, as explained by the East Asia Forum.
Across the aisle, Politico published a must-read piece on the socialist former Galway mayor Catherine Connolly, 68, who is on course to become Ireland’s next President. Polling at 55.7% to her rival’s 31.6%, she’d be forgiven for getting a man in to measure the curtains…
As Politico’s Ireland correspondent Shawn Pogatchnik writes: “It’s her NATO-critical stance on Ukraine, and opposition to wider European security moves, that could soon be generating the most awkward headlines for an Irish government caught between the state’s official neutrality and its support for EU efforts to bolster Ukraine.” Interesting times ahead.
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During a visit to the UK for discussions on migration, Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama dove straight into the topic of Brexit. He (quite poetically) told an audience at Chatham House:
“Some call them small boats, some call them Brexit boats. And one wonders why you left Europe. You left Europe because you wanted less boats, and you have more boats.
“You left Europe because you wanted more investment. You have less investment. You left Europe because you wanted more happiness. Now you are depressed.” Quite…
Cheerful News of the Week
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In a bit of a gear change for our cheerful news segment, this week we wanted to highlight the positive story of Tom Boyd, a 28-year-old autistic man, who volunteered stacking shelves at Waitrose as a work experience placement for four years. After his mum asked if he could have some paid hours, the head office said he would have to stop volunteering, as per the BBC.
Happily, rival supermarket Asda has now offered Tom two five-hour paid shifts a week - and thanks to the publicity Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham agreed to be an advocate for an awareness campaign for neuro-inclusive work placements. A happy outcome for Tom and his family, and an example of the power of individual stories to generate important social changes.
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It’s over to Kent County Council for this week’s Cringe Column, where the “flagship” Reform UK administration was hit by political inevitability.
After a (rather embarrassing) video of a fractious and F-bomb laden council meeting was leaked to the media, council leader Linden Kemkaren launched a leak inquiry… only for her message outlining the “thorough investigation” into “this treachery” to (of course) also leak to the media.
Ah, Jackie Weaver, eat your heart out. You have no authority here.
Next week features plenty of goings-on, from the Dutch elections, and, closer to home, a House of Lords debate on the UK-EU youth mobility scheme. It’s also Halloween, of course. Any political-themed costume suggestions are welcome below the line.
Have a good one.
Jessica Frank-Keyes
Senior Press Officer
Best for Britain
The Best for Britain Wire is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
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