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Edited by Brady Africk and Lexi Baker
Happy Thursday! In today’s newsletter, we examine the legal challenges to President Donald Trump’s record-high tariffs, the source of declining birthrates, and a constitutional amendment to balance the federal budget.
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Topline: Tariffs during President Trump’s first term failed to offset the soaring budget deficit created by the administration’s own policies. Despite import tariffs on China, steel, and aluminum, the trade deficit widened 40 percent from 2016 to 2019. AEI’s Desmond Lachman questions why the record high import tariffs of President Trump’s second term would yield different results.
Term by Term: Lachman argues the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act from President Trump’s first term deepened the federal deficit and slashed national savings. Legislation from the president’s current term, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, is projected to similarly add billions more to the budget deficit, raising the public debt-to-GDP ratio to 128 percent by 2034.
SCOTUS Review: A Supreme Court review of the Trump administration’s import tariffs is set to begin on November 5. Lachman argues that the Court should reject the administration's defense that the tariffs are in response to a national emergency created by the high deficit. Instead, he argues, the deficit is a problem of excessive domestic spending and insufficient savings—issues tariffs can’t fix.
"What the Court should be telling the administration is that if it were serious in believing that the trade deficit constitutes a national emergency, its first priority should be to put the public finances in order to boost the country’s savings level. It should do that rather than repeat the mistake of the first Trump administration in thinking that it can cure the trade deficit by erecting a high import tariff wall.”—Desmond Lachman
Topline: Secular men and women are more hesitant to have children—at almost identical rates—than their religious counterparts. Despite some headlines claiming otherwise, AEI’s Daniel A. Cox highlights that falling birthrates are more closely tied with religious affiliation than gender.
Gender Gap: Roughly one third of nonreligious men and women report not wanting children—31 and 33 percent, respectively. While a majority of religious men and women want children, there is a gender gap. 66 percent of religious men and 57 percent of religious women say they want children.
The State of Religion: Among Americans currently in their mid-70s or older, 68 percent attended religious services at least weekly during their childhood. Only 48 percent of those in their early twenties report the same. Rates of worship attendance are not rebounding and remain at record lows, according to Pew research.
"For nonreligious singles, the hesitancy to start a family may stem less from a lack of faith in a higher power and more from a pervasive sense of cynicism and mistrust. Young nonreligious Americans tend to report higher rates of anxiety, greater pessimism about politics, and are more worried about the future. There are few feelings less conducive to wanting to start a family than a sense of despair.”—Daniel A. Cox
Topline: The US government’s debt hit $37.6 trillion on September 30, one day before the federal government shut down for lack of funding. In the search to rein in spending, AEI’s Kevin R. Kosar points to fresh interest in a constitutional amendment to balance the budget.
No End in Sight: The One Big Beautiful Bill Act will add roughly $5.5 trillion in debt by 2034, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. Meanwhile, the Democrats’ demand to extend COVID-era subsidies to reopen the government would tack on $350 billion to the federal debt over the next decade.
Keys to Success: To avoid prohibiting flexibility during economic downturns, a constitutional amendment should not mandate a balanced budget each year. A potential alternative includes curbing the government from adding to the debt in the long run, allowing it to decline relative to gross national product.
"There have been hundreds of congressional resolutions advocating a balanced budget over the past half-century. That none of them passed is remarkable, not least because balanced budget policies are not uncommon outside of Washington. Various U.S. states and foreign nations have policies to curb the growth of debt.”—Kevin R. Kosar
