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This week saw a new poll suggest Reform UK’s Nigel Farage could be on course to be the UK’s next Prime Minister, Lib Dem leader Ed Davey give us his best impersonation of Hugh Grant, and rumours swirl ahead of the Labour Party conference in Liverpool about a potential king over the Mersey…
Welcome to your Weekend Wire from Best for Britain.
(Not so) deep turquoise water
According to a new YouGov MRP poll [ [link removed] ], as reported by Sky News [ [link removed] ], Nigel Farage could be on course to enter No10 with his Reform UK party winning 311 of the 650 seats in Parliament at the next election. According to the seat-by-seat poll of a 13,000 sample size carried out over the last three weeks, this would see Reform UK the largest party in a hung parliament, and just 15 seats shy of an overall majority, before considering the Speaker and Sinn Fein MPs who do not take their seats.
Well. We won’t deny it makes for grim reading. However, it’s vital to remember that this poll was conducted as though the general election would take place tomorrow - and it isn’t. Even with the current levels of dissatisfaction with the Labour government, who still have four years to improve their poll ratings, it may be close but Farage is still not forecast to secure a majority.
And - crucially - while Reform UK’s voter base may appear to be united on the surface, when you take a deeper dive into their policy priorities and preferences, it reveals a far softer and shallower coalition than Farage would like to pretend. Read on for more…
Progressive fightback
It’s been a busy week at Best for Britain HQ. On Thursday, our CEO Naomi Smith, alongside Labour MP Liam Byrne and Professor Bobby Duffy, presented a webinar on the second phase of the Decoding Populism project, aimed at understanding, mapping and persuading back potential Reform UK voters. You can watch the (revealing) session back and read more on our website [ [link removed] ].
This ongoing study has revealed new insights including who Reform UK’s potential voters see as the UK’s “antagonists” as well as the issues on which Nigel Farage could be most electorally vulnerable. Which, as Naomi put it, is “absolutely crucial” to tackling the threat from the radical right. Liam Byrne has called it “time to reset Labour’s strategy for exposing Reform”.
“The reality is Nigel Farage is Liz Truss 2.0 – a false preacher of patriotism who would leave Britain poorer but the richest richer.” - Liam Byrne
As ever, we say a huge thank you to our backers, whose vital support allows us to continue researching and polling to understand how to defeat the radical right. If you’re so inclined, why not consider making a regular or one-off donation to Best for Britain?
‘I actually love Britain’
After a thousand memes and BlueSky posts bemoaned the lack of a ‘Love Actually’ moment [ [link removed] ] during (actual) US President Donald Trump’s state visit to the UK, who should step into the breach but one Sir Ed Davey? The stirring strings may have been absent - and his speech [ [link removed] ] was directed at Farage, rather than a fictional commander-in-chief - but, as the New Statesman [ [link removed] ], among others, noted, the tone was unmistakable.
“Because unlike Farage, I actually love Britain. I’m proud of our country… The best farmers, carmakers and universities in the world. The place Hollywood comes to make Barbie, Spider-Man and Mission Impossible. The land of the Lionesses and the home of Formula One. Windermere and Loch Ness. Male Voice Choirs and Hogmanay. County shows and school fairs. Fish and chips. Village greens and cricket pavilions. And let me tell you – the best rollercoasters and waterslides on the planet.”
Not so new Labour?
Ahead of his second party conference as Prime Minister kicking off this weekend at Liverpool ACC, and as key aide Morgan McSweeney faced a reignited row over undeclared donations to campaign group Labour Together (albeit seemingly now resolved [ [link removed] ]), it’s fair to say Sir Keir hasn’t had one of his better weeks.
The Prime Minister appeared to mount an attempt to counter Reform UK’s narrative, including announcing that deprived areas of the UK will receive cash from a £5bn regeneration fund known as Pride in Place [ [link removed] ], which Starmer branded “renewal over decline, unity over division”.
It all sounded somewhat reminiscent of Boris Johnson’s ‘levelling-up’ approach. He also unveiled a new digital ID card [ [link removed] ] scheme aimed at tackling illegal working and making borders “more secure”. Now, just Blair have we heard that one before?
Burn(ham) down the house
Starmer confirmed the ID cards move at the Global Progress Action Summit [ [link removed] ] in London on Friday hosted by the IPPR – alongside the Center for American Progress and Labour Together – with attendees including Canadian leader Mark Carney, Australian PM Anthony Albanese and US Democrats.
However, despite his efforts to lead a global centre-left coalition, his domestic one is increasingly unsteady. The Andy Burnham rumour mill shows no signs of slowing down ahead of a party conference sure to be dominated by talk of the lushly eyelashed Mancunion mayor - which is provoking no less than fury in some quarters of the PLP, PoliticsHome reported [ [link removed] ].
That’s no thanks to the New Statesman, and, interestingly, the Telegraph’s recent (very good) profiles on the would-be, wouldn’t-be Starmer successor. It’s worth noting Burnham’s path to power is at this stage, extremely convoluted. And, for those with long memories, back in 2019, Burnham was the first Labour figure to break with pro-Remain colleagues [ [link removed] ] in saying he would campaign for Leave in a second EU referendum. They say be careful what you wish for…
Migration myopia
Earlier this week, Farage declared, if elected, Reform UK would stop migrants from reaching permanent residency in the UK after five years, and even scrap indefinite leave to remain [ [link removed] ] (ILR) retrospectively.
He faced resounding criticism [ [link removed] ] from across party lines, as well as immigration charities, think tanks and the health and care sectors, including Nicola Ranger, general secretary of the Royal College of Nursing, who called the proposals “abhorrent beyond words” and warned that without “our brilliant migrant nursing staff… services would simply cease to function”.
Our own Naomi Smith compared Farage’s policy [ [link removed] ] to the scenes playing out in the US, warning:
“Reform’s Trump-style plan to deport thousands of people from the UK who have the legal right to be here, and who even may have been here for decades, would not only be economically devastating but unconscionably cruel.”
Health warnings…
…aplenty were applied to Trump and then Farage’s comments this week wrongly questioning the safety of taking paracetamol during pregnancy and raising false a potential link to autism, including from minister Wes Streeting who urged [ [link removed] ]: “Don’t pay any attention whatsoever to what Donald Trump says about medicine… listen to British doctors, British scientists, the NHS.”
We’ll leave this - extremely serious - one to the medical professionals. The government published a drug safety update [ [link removed] ] from the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) this week confirming that “there is no evidence that taking paracetamol during pregnancy causes autism in children”. They also reiterated that the painkiller “is recommended as the first-choice pain reliever for pregnant women” and is also “used to treat fever”.
Anyone with health concerns, especially during pregnancy, should consult a doctor or call 111.
Could an Erasmus deal be around the corner? The EU is reportedly keen for a quick agreement with the UK for us to join the Erasmus+ programme of student exchanges from January 2027, the i Paper has reported [ [link removed] ].
Our policy and research director Tom Brufatto, highlighted in the piece that we at Best for Britain is urging the UK to drop its demand for EU nationals to pay approximately £3,500 in visa fees. He warned:
“The higher these financial disincentives or prerequisites, the lower the number of applicants you will get as you just exclude all the underprivileged people that don’t have that cash on hand.”
On Friday evening, the Chancellor also called [ [link removed] ] for an ambitious Youth Mobility deal.
Best for Britain Chief Executive Naomi Smith said;
“Ambition is what we need from our leaders, ambition to shake off the failures of the past, ambition to revitalise local communities and ambition to give young people back opportunities and irreplaceable formative experiences…”
Cheerful News of the Week
In a major medical breakthrough that will undoubtedly prove life-changing for many, doctors have successfully treated Huntington’s disease for the very first time, the BBC reported [ [link removed] ].
The devastating disease which runs in families is described as a combination of dementia, Parkinson’s and motor neurone disease, and has been now slowed by 75% in patients in a clinical trial thanks to a new type of gene therapy administered during lengthy brain surgery.
The breakthrough - which prompted tears from the team of researchers - will give families many more years with their loved ones. A truly bright light in a world of increasing gloom - and a much-needed reminder of the transformative brilliance of actual science.
“No luck with them swans?” Here’s Nigel Farage suggesting to LBC’s Nick Ferrari that immigrants are eating the (royal) waterfowl in London’s parks…
Keep an eye out this weekend for the start of the Labour conference. Best for Britain will be at the heart of goings-on in Liverpool, including hosting a panel discussion on the UK-EU relationship, business receptions and policy briefings.
Sunday features the Moldovan election.
Have a good one.
Jessica Frank-Keyes
Senior Press Officer
Best for Britain

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