Hi Friend,

Every four years, Treasury reports on the country's finances for the next 40 years. It's a big deal. They dig into aging populations, healthcare costs, superannuation, economic growth, and how it'll all affect taxes, spending and debt. No spin, just the raw figures.

Think of it this way - it's a health check for the country. And Treasury has diagnosed some big problems coming our way. You can read the report yourself here.

Things have to change, whether we like it or not...

Yesterday, Ray, Austin and I attended Treasury's 2025 Long-Term Fiscal Statement briefing. And the message was clear: change is coming. The Government can only choose whether to start transitioning now, or continue its inaction and force harsher changes down the track.

Treasury Secretary Iain Rennie put it bluntly:

"None of these choices are easy, but if we do not close the structural deficit in the shorter-term it will tighten policy constraints over time. This could involve more drastic policy adjustments in the future than necessary [...]. There are real economic and social costs to delayed reform."

The Government's debt is off the rails, and by 2065 it'll hit 200 percent of GDP. Even Greece only hit about 170 percent before its economy collapsed...

If you've got a keen eye and magnifying glass to hand, there's a teeny dip in the blue line around 2029. Then it carries on spiralling exactly as before. That little wobble is the Finance Minister's plan to get back to surplus and pay down debt.

Putting that in perspective, by 2065 each household will be paying more than $60,000 a year just to cover the interest. That's more than 70 percent of everything the Government spent last year, and it'll just be keeping the bailiffs from the door.

The books are in bad shape, but they don't have to be 🔥📚

With an ageing population and rising health costs, we're on track for spending to keep rocketing. If nothing else changes, by 2065 the Government will be spending almost 50 percent more than it can raise in tax revenue.

Without growth, we won't be able to afford to pay for our schools, hospitals, and roads. But it's not a foregone conclusion. 

That's why it is so important to keep pushing for pro-growth tax relief, spending restraint, and to have some hard conversations about super and welfare reform. And the sooner we get started, the smaller an adjustment we'll need and the less it's going to hurt.

Our A Pathway to Surplus report lays out oven-ready plans to smash the deficit, stop the borrowing, and restore New Zealand’s financial resilience. I won't lie to you, Friend, not all of them are pretty. But every month or year we delay making tough choices, they get harder and harder.

We've identified more than $35 billion in possible savings over the next 5 years. No one's saying Willis has to make them all now. But she does have to start somewhere, because we're still spending more now than when Labour left office.

If Willis keeps kicking the can down the road, it's our kids and grandkids who will inherit a much poorer country. With worse services, higher taxes, lower incomes, and far, far less opportunity.

Let's put the plan into action 💪

Friend, we are running out of time to get the economy back on the right track before next year's election.

We need a hard reset, to balance the books and set the conditions for growth. Because without it, New Zealand is going broke.

Doing nothing isn't an option. The research team have worked hard to find a way back into surplus, now it's time to get Nicola Willis to listen. 

Thank you for your support,

James Ross Head of Policy & Legislative Affairs New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union