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September 24, 2025
Welcome to The Lighthouse, the weekly email newsletter of the Independent Institute covering politics, economics, current events, and everything in between.
Greetings,
Perceptions of crime and criminal justice tend to be heavily related to partisan identity—but what does the data say? Kristian Fors and I investigated the crime rates of red and blue states (taking the effect of cities versus rural areas into account). We found that, although red and blue states show wide variation in public safety outcomes, there is a lack of evidence to suggest that either has a meaningful difference in crime rates.
September 17th also marked Constitution and Citizenship Day. To commemorate the day, Bill Watkins writes of the importance of the Constitution and originalist interpretation, calling for an emphasis on strict constructionism to restore constitutional sanity.
Allen Gindler calls attention to a system that treats personal income as perpetually state-owned.
Craig Eyermann discusses how SCOTUS striking down tariffs in court would necessarily alter the fiscal policy outlook. On the flip side, Andrew Locke highlights how tariffs gifted us the “Too Big to Fail” notion, ultimately, shifted the cost of their bailouts onto taxpayers, and weakened market discipline.
Alex Tokarev and Kristin Tokarev explain that the Big Beautiful Bill is a potpourri of polices, some good, others not so much.
Scott Beyer checks in on the YIMBY coalition which aims to lower living costs by increasing the housing stock, noting that the movement’s message faces an uphill battle. Progressives tend to distrust market mechanics, conservatives tend to dislike density, and both sides find reasons to stall reform.
Finally, we honor the late Steven Margolis, the revered free-market economist who tragically passed from Alzheimer’s disease. In memorium, Stan Liebowitz has written his reminiscences of Margolis as a lifelong friend and co-contributor.
Enjoy.
Jonathan Hofer
Managing Editor
Top picks this week
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** Are Blue or Red States Worse on Crime? ([link removed])
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** Preliminary findings on where Newsom is right and where Newsom is wrong ([link removed])
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** by Jonathan Hofer & Kristian Fors
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Despite political rhetoric, empirical evidence suggests no meaningful connection between a state's partisan alignment and its overall crime rate—nor do individual cities move the needle.
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** Constitution Day and Tucker’s Rule ([link removed])
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** by William J. Watkins, Jr.
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Modern interpretations of the U.S. Constitution have strayed dangerously from its original intent.
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** The Lifecycle of One Hundred Dollars ([link removed])
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** How government claims our income from birth to death ([link removed])
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** by Allen Gindler
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From the moment a dollar is earned, government taxes and fees relentlessly erode its value.
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** Trump Tariffs Propping Up U.S. Government Fiscal Health ([link removed])
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** by Craig Eyermann
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Trump’s emergency tariffs, though economically controversial, are consequential to U.S. fiscal stability.
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** Trickle-Up Tariffs: How Protectionism Leads to Bailouts ([link removed])
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** by Andrew Locke
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Protectionist tariffs create artificially large firms that become “too big to fail.”
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** Trump’s Big, Beautiful Bill: Now with No Tax on Tips and a Side of Covfefe! ([link removed])
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** by Alex Tokarev & Kristin Tokarev
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Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill” delivers flashy tax cuts and populist perks like no tax on tips—but it also bloats the IRS code, favors the wealthy, and risks long-term economic distortion.
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** Is the YIMBY Movement Failing? ([link removed])
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** To win, YIMBYs should adapt their messaing—and question old alliances. ([link removed])
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** by Scott Beyer
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Until YIMBYs find an identity beyond left or right, their victories will remain limited—and America’s housing crisis will grind on.
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** Steve Margolis: Economist, Friend, and Defender of Free Markets ([link removed])
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** by Stan J. Liebowitz
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Steve Margolis, a leading scholar of industrial organization, was a fantastic friend to many.
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** FEATURED BOOK — OUT SOON!
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** A Balance of Titans ([link removed])
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** Peace and Liberty in the New Multipolar World ([link removed])
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** By Ivan Eland
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“Ivan Eland proposes a bold new foreign policy for the United States, one that would encourage other nations to share the burdens of policing the world, saving the United States billions in defense spending and making peace more likely and sustainable.” —Harvey Sapolsky, professor emeritus of public policy and organization, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
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