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Predicting the future: The supergroup of AI, humans, hedgehogs and foxes
 How AI can assist human decision-making and democratize super-forecasting to better predict uncertain futures. Editor's Note: The hedgehog and fox monikers originally derive from an essay by the philosopher, Isaiah Berlin, based on an old Greek adage that "a fox knows many things, but a hedgehog knows one big thing," that Berlin used to characterize writers into two schools, one that views the world through a single lens or "Big Idea," and the other that draws on a wide variety of experiences that cannot be attributed to a single school of thought or paradigm.
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WorkWorkBusiness Leaders React to Trump's H-1B Visa Fee - Business Insider Netflix cofounder and chairman Reed Hastings praised Trump's $100,000 H-1B visa fee, calling it a "great solution" compared to the existing lottery system.Hastings said in an X post on Sunday that he has "worked on H-1B politics for 30 years.""It will mean H1-B is used just for very high-value jobs, which will mean no lottery needed, and more certainty for those jobs," he wrote. WorkWorkGermicidal ultraviolet could make airborne diseases as rare as those carried by water While typhoid and other waterborne diseases triggered vast engineering and regulatory responses, the equivalent airborne threats have not. Tuberculosis alone kills more than a million people every year around the world, yet the air in schools, clinics, and public buildings remains largely unfiltered and unmonitored. Covid-19, which killed over seven million people, demonstrated how rapidly airborne pathogens can spread in poorly ventilated spaces.Just as filtration and chlorination made drinking water safe at scale, we now have the tools to do the same for indoor air: ventilation, high-quality filters, and germicidal light. WorkControl of the Fed Is About More Than Interest Rates - The Atlantic President Donald Trump could be close to taking over the Federal Reserve. On September 9, a federal district judge blocked Trump's effort to remove Lisa Cook as a Federal Reserve governor; on Thursday, the administration petitioned the Supreme Court to allow the firing to go through. If the high court ends up siding with the administration, then Trump will have a clear path to filling the central bank with loyalists willing to vote the way he directs them to.So far, most of the hand-wringing over this possibility has centered on Trump's desire to dramatically cut interest rates, which could juice the economy and improve the GOP's political prospects in the short term, but make inflation worse and destroy the Fed's credibility in the long term. But the Fed has far more power than just setting rates; in fact, setting rates is the least of what it can do. The central bank determines the supply of money flowing through the economy, decides which institutions can have access to the financial system, and can print and spend money at will. If Trump takes control of the Fed, he will have attained extraordinary power to reward his friends and destroy his enemies. WorkChatGPT Is Blowing Up Marriages as Spouses Use AI to Attack Their Partners A husband and wife, together nearly 15 years, had reached a breaking point. And in the middle of their latest fight, they received a heartbreaking text."Our son heard us arguing," the husband told Futurism. "He's 10, and he sent us a message from his phone saying, 'please don't get a divorce.'"What his wife did next, the man told us, unsettled him."She took his message, and asked ChatGPT to respond," he recounted. "This was her immediate reaction to our 10-year-old being concerned about us in that moment."The couple is now divorcing. WorkWork WorkResearch reveals how gut-brain interactions shape eating behaviors Two new papers from Clinical Gastroenterology and Hepatology and Gastroenterology shed light on how gut-brain interactions, influenced by both biology and life circumstances, shape eating behaviors. Together, they highlight the importance of multidisciplinary, personalized approaches to digestive health and nutrition. WorkWorkPrivate Equity Firms' Fundraising Stumbles After High-Flying Era - Bloomberg When Insight Partners tried to raise another $20 billion flagship fund, it found itself offering mea culpas.Months into the campaign, the software-focused private equity firm conceded it had invested too quickly before interest rates rose, buying assets near a market peak. Executives vowed to focus on returning capital. But contrition wasn't enough for some clients. Even after trimming ambitions to $12.5 billion to $15 billion for an era of fewer deals, the firm's 13th fund closed in January with about $11.5 billion.Such struggles reflect tough times for private equity. Work WorkWorkWorkJudge lifts Trump administration's halt on $5B offshore wind farm A federal judge has ruled that a nearly complete offshore wind project halted by the Trump administration can resume, dealing President Donald Trump a setback in his ongoing effort to restrict the U.S. offshore wind industry. Work on the Revolution Wind project off Rhode Island and Connecticut has been paused since Aug. 22, when the administration issued a stop-work order for unspecified national security concerns. Both the developer and the two states sued in federal courts. Danish energy company Orsted sought a preliminary injunction that would allow the project to move forward. Judge Royce Lamberth granted it, citing likely irreparable harm to the plaintiffs. Work WorkWorkWorkWhat to know about changes to the H-1B visa program - WSJ President Trump on Friday announced a major overhaul of the country's H-1B visa system, including a new $100,000 fee, creating confusion for companies and workers about who would be affected.The H-1B system is the primary pathway for foreign professionals to enter the country, and is also used by international students who hope to remain in the U.S. after their student visas expire. A favorite of large tech companies, the visas are also used broadly by foreign doctors and university researchers.Here's what you need to know about recent changes to the program. WorkWhat to know about taking Tylenol during pregnancy - WSJ The Trump administration said on Monday that Tylenol use during pregnancy is a possible cause of autism and that pregnant women should stop taking it unless absolutely necessary.Doctors and medical societies say acetaminophen, the active ingredient in Tylenol, remains the best option for treating fever and pain during pregnancy.Pregnant women are caught in the middle. WorkHow Macron and Saudi Arabia turned the tide on Western support for a Palestinian state - WSJ It was once unthinkable that a wave of some of the U.S.'s closest Western allies would recognize a Palestinian state. It took less than a year of closed-door diplomacy by French President Emmanuel Macron and Saudi officials to upend the decades-old status quo.The push gathered force as Macron grew frustrated with Israel and watched as the Middle East's traditional diplomatic power-broker, the U.S., was stymied in its efforts to end the war in Gaza. Over much of the past year, the French joined the Saudis in pressing Western countries to buck their biggest ally in Washington and, in Macron's eyes, save the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. WorkWorkWorkIn targeting a common painkiller, Trump oversteps his own advisers' guidance - WSJ WASHINGTON--For a generation, parents have waited for an answer to what's causing a mysterious increase in autism diagnoses among children. On Monday, they got a hypothesis on the culprit straight from President Trump: a common painkiller widely deemed safe.In labeling Tylenol use in pregnant women as a potential cause of autism, Trump threw the full weight of his office behind a theory that he acknowledged has yet to be proven. He defied the careful guidance offered by some in the row of scientific advisers who stood behind him during the Roosevelt Room address. WorkCan the UN save itself from irrelevance? Since the UN was founded in October 1945 amid a burst of idealism in the aftermath of the second world war, its cannier leaders have understood that their principal power stemmed from the pulpit: they can publicly shame and scold the member states.Dag Hammarskjold, the flamboyant second secretary-general, who died in a mysterious plane crash in 1961 while mediating in the Congo, was the most artful exponent of this approach. When he spoke, the world listened. It was he who uttered the words that on the UN's better days still enshrine its mission. "The UN was created not to lead mankind to heaven," he said. "But to save humanity from hell." WorkWorkWorkUS Startup Wants to Build Giant Cargo Plane That Carries 4 F-35s - Business Insider A late-stage startup building the world's largest plane -- originally for moving giant wind turbine blades -- now wants its aircraft to ferry Chinooks and fighter jets for the US military.The Windrunner is meant to offer 12 times the cargo space of Boeing's C-17 Globemaster III, the Pentagon's primary heavy-lift carrier, according to Radia, its maker based in Boulder, Colorado.The company said in a press release on Friday that it was proposing its product as an "ultra-large air cargo aircraft" for moving weapons platforms and transports. It originally built the Windrunner to airlift wind turbine fan blades as long as 330 feet. WorkReverse brain drain: governments hope to lure talent after US visa changes According to a June report published by the Korea Chamber of Commerce & Industry, the country, home to technology giants Samsung (005930.KS), opens new tab and LG Electronics (066570.KS), opens new tab, has been losing tech talent to countries such as the United States.In 2024, the nation recorded a net loss of 0.36 AI experts per 10,000 people, ranked 35th, near the bottom of the 38 member countries in the OECD, according to an index measuring net flows in the report.That compares with a gain for Luxembourg of 8.92, 1.07 for the United States and 2.13 for Germany. WorkWorkWorkWorkWorkWorkGlobal growth forecast upgraded by OECD "Growth is expected to soften noticeably in the second half of this year, as front-loading activity unwinds and higher effective tariff rates on imports to the United States and China dampen investment and trade growth," it said. WorkHow Nvidia is backstopping America's AI boom - WSJ Nvidia's move to invest $100 billion into OpenAI to help finance a historic data center build-out has helped reset market expectations about the startup's shaky finances. It's a familiar play by the chip giant.Chief Executive Jensen Huang has repeatedly sought to leverage the enormous confidence investors have in Nvidia's future to help strengthen the company's supply chain partners. It has used its balance sheet clout to keep the AI boom humming through deals, partnerships and investments in companies that are among its top customers, including cloud-computing provider CoreWeave, rival chip designer Intel and xAI.The deals highlight an issue that some investors are calling "circularity" in Nvidia's prospects, whereby the company takes steps to boost or shore up demand for its AI chips by supporting startups and other companies. Those companies can then use those funds or new liquidity to buy Nvidia chips. WorkGeneral Catalyst CEO Says Companies Need 4 Things for AI Integration that avoids hitting a wall - Business Insider True AI integration has four non-negotiables, according to General Catalyst's CEO."When you think about transforming an enterprise with AI, you actually have to do four things correctly," Hemant Taneja said on an episode of the 20VC podcast released on Monday.Taneja said that it is "very, very difficult" to achieve all four things and ensure that AI adoption goes beyond prototyping an OpenAI or Anthropic model."That's why these things are hitting a wall," he added.The VC said that companies need to prepare their data infrastructure for AI adoption first. Data infrastructure includes components like servers, databases, cloud platforms, and networking equipment that work together to make data secure and usable.The second must-have is large language models that understand your business. WorkAmerica's top companies keep talking about AI - but can't explain the upsides The biggest US-listed companies keep talking about artificial intelligence. But other than the "fear of missing out," few appear to be able to describe how the technology is changing their businesses for the better.That is the conclusion of a Financial Times analysis of hundreds of corporate filings and executive transcripts at S&P 500 companies last year, providing one of the most comprehensive insights yet into how the AI wave is rippling through American industry. WorkArgentina's Javier Milei to meet Donald Trump for talks on US financial lifeline Argentina's President Javier Milei is due for high-stakes talks with Donald Trump on Tuesday as the US president prepares to offer a financial lifeline to his ideological ally after days of market turmoil.US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday that "all options" were on the table to support Milei, a libertarian economist and close Trump ally, to help arrest a damaging run on Argentina's currency. Washington would consider an intervention to buy pesos or Argentina's sovereign debt, Bessent said. WorkWorkWorkBritish-Egyptian activist Alaa Abd el-Fattah freed from prison A writer and supporter of the Arab spring, Abd el-Fattah has been in jail since 2019. In 2021, he was sentenced to five years but the authorities claimed the two years he spent in pre-trial detention did not count toward his sentence. He was convicted of spreading false news and harming Egypt’s national interest. A UN panel found the allegation stemmed from Abd el-Fattah sharing a Facebook post about the death of a prison inmate. WorkWorkWorkWorkWorkWorkWork TradeBriefs Publications are read by over 100,000 Industry Executives About Us | Advertise | Privacy PolicyUnsubscribe You are receiving this mail because of your subscription with TradeBriefs.
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