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In recent weeks, I’ve been talking a lot about the 10 Steps to Autocracy and Authoritarianism [ [link removed] ]. This framework isn’t just an academic exercise. It’s a translator. The forces of authoritarianism in our country want us to feel overwhelmed by what’s happening around us and to us. But the 10 Steps are a clear way to understand how all of the pieces fit together. Good people across multiple platforms are warning you, explaining to you and deluging you with daily headlines. Information is good—but it’s better when we know how it fits together.
Authoritarians follow a playbook. By naming their steps, we expose their strategy. And by exposing their strategy, we empower ourselves to see around the actions to the intentions—and defeat it. The 10 Steps to Autocracy and Authoritarianism give us the intellectual scaffolding to recognize the danger signals, to see how each action by those in power fits into a broader design, and ultimately to arm ourselves with the information and tools we need to reclaim democracy for the people.
Once we know where they’re trying to take us, we can plot our way out, and that’s where the 10 Steps to Freedom and Power [ [link removed] ] come in.
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Today we’re talking about Step 1 in the 10 Steps to Autocracy and Authoritarianism: Winning (Usually The Last) Free & Fair Election.
As always, I’d like to thank Kim Lane Scheppele who researched this framework, and allowed me to slightly editorialize it.
Across recent history and across the world, most of the politicians who eventually dismantled democracy were, at first, chosen in free and fair elections. Citizens cast their ballots believing they were participating in the normal democratic process; and election monitors certified those contests as legitimate. But in many of these cases, the warning signs were visible long before election day. Aspirational autocrats often make it clear (through word or action) that they are not fully committed to democratic values and ideals, and that the institutions by which people exercise their rights should be destroyed.
In Turkey, Erdoğan won power in 2003 even after his party was banned and he was jailed for stoking religious hatred. In Venezuela, Chávez was elected in 1999 after trying to overthrow the elected government. In Hungary, Orbán spent years attacking the legitimacy of elections he lost—and then rewrote the rules once he got back in power in 2010. And in Brazil, Bolsonaro openly praised Brazil’s 20th century military coup and dictatorship long before his 2018 win—and has now been convicted and sentenced [ [link removed] ] to 27 years in prison for plotting and participating in his own coup plot.
Of course, not every freely elected leader becomes an autocrat, and not all authoritarians advertise their intentions in advance. But, often, would-be strongmen send unmistakable signals before winning the election that ultimately allows them to move against democratic institutions.
While Donald Trump's election in 2016 may not have conformed to the classic trajectory of an autocrat, his behavior over the following years did. He refused to concede the 2020 election, incited supporters who violently attacked the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021, and was ultimately indicted in both state and federal court for plotting to overturn the election result. He tried to undermine the legitimacy of the judicial process by calling it a “witch hunt.”
Now, within the first months of the second Trump administration, the pattern seen in places like Turkey, Venezuela, Hungary, and Brazil has fully revealed itself in the United States.
Earlier this year, I had a fascinating conversation on our podcast Assembly Required [ [link removed] ] with Rachel Maddow about how to fight against fascism. She reminded us that while this political moment may feel unprecedented, it isn’t new. America has faced its share of far-right movements, fascist provocateurs, and anti-democratic threats. You can watch the full episode here:
So, you might be asking: what do we need to know?
Step 1 on the road to autocracy is that the erosion of democracy often begins with a legitimate election, even when warning signs are already flashing. Which means we cannot wait until democratic systems are formally dismantled to push back. We must recognize these signals early, call them out clearly, and organize before the next election—failure to do so makes resistance exponentially harder. We can’t assume that because the election was legitimate, the resulting administration will be. As we’ve watched since January, an election cannot be used to justify the wanton cruelty and corruption that has marked every single day of this regime.
Effective resistance means we are required to shed our reflexive acceptance of bad politicians doing bad things by excusing them because “they won fair and square.” A free and fair election is not a hall pass to tyranny. As long as we cling to treating this new American order as something we simply need to survive, we are missing the point. Yes, Republicans won the election—and they brought with them Christian nationalists, techno-fascists, masked secret police, stolen data and kidnappings. This isn’t normal, so assuming the next election will fix it simply won’t do. I’m not calling for panic—but I am urging attention and intensity. Authoritarianism isn’t coming to America. It’s here. Our job is to accept where we are and to plot our way forward. Starting today.
While some of us may be immersed in the threats we face, for millions of others, the reality hasn’t quite broken through. That’s by design—when everything feels out of whack, nothing feels completely wrong. Last week, I spent time with a naturalized citizen who had escaped a South American dictatorship decades before. We’d worked together many times, so I knew a bit of her story. When I asked about how she felt given what was happening in America, she shrugged.
“I don’t watch the news. It’s too depressing,” she admitted. “What’s going on?”
I spent the next few minutes updating her on the immigration ruling that authorizes [ [link removed] ] racial profiling and the pending cuts to the Affordable Care Act. She is an independent contractor who gets her healthcare on the Marketplace, and she has two children who could be targeted by ICE, despite their citizenship. She had no idea…but she wanted to know more. You can be part of how we build the resistance. Join us at 10stepscampaign.org [ [link removed] ] and share this post on other platforms. We’ve got work to do.
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