Breaking Down China's Economic Deterrence Playbook

In an era of increasing economic warfare, China has been particularly successful in deterring economic coercion. In a new paper, RAND Europe researchers break down Beijing's strategy, which is defined by

• denial (persuading an adversary that an attack will not succeed)
• entanglement (highlighting how China’s connections with countries and companies could make an attack costly for the attacker)
• punishment (signaling that any attack will prompt a counterattack).

The authors emphasize that these approaches rely on credibility; China’s adversaries must find Beijing credible for its strategy to be effective. This approach also requires that China’s population is prepared for any attack and willing to endure the economic consequences.

The authors also explore whether and how Europe might borrow from China's playbook. “For the EU and the UK,” the researchers write, “the path forward lies in being able and willing to leverage their unique strengths, foster collaboration and build resilience across critical sectors.”