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Unleash Prosperity Hotline
Issue #1346
9/10/2025
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1) We Hit It on the Nose: New Census 2024 Income Report Validates Our Advance Estimates
Not everyone is having a tough time producing accurate numbers these days. Our own data crunchers at Unleash Prosperity almost perfectly nailed 2024 median income - and we did it many months before the official numbers were announced.
Yesterday, the Census Bureau released its Income in the United States: 2024 ([link removed]) , with its official estimate of median household income for 2024, coming in at $83,780.
Our Unleash Prosperity economic aces could have told them that back in January!
A full eight months before Census released its official data, our model projected 2024 real median household income at $83,420 -- a forecast that turned out to be within just 0.3% of the Census number.
With an average standard error of less than 1% since 2012 our model has proven a reliable bellwether of economic conditions from the perspective of the American household.
Paul Krugman and others shrieked that our numbers were made up when UP co-founder Stephen Moore recently presented them in the Oval Office with President Trump, claiming we couldn't possibly have produced accurate income numbers before the official data release.
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This report from Census confirms our methodology works and that, unless you were among the wealthiest American households, you saw insignificant real income growth in the Biden years. The poor actually lost ground under Biden.
Here's the good news: Our model also tells us that so far in 2025 median income is UP by about $1,100.
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2) Yes, Senator Thune, Go Nuclear
This President and any President should have the advisors and agency heads that he wants unless there is some overriding reason why a nominee is not fit to serve. That would include a criminal record, tax evasion, incompetence, a conflict of interest, or an impairment that would interfere with his/her ability to do the job.
But nine months into a four year job, some 150 Trump nominees have not received Senate confirmation. That is no vote at all. Whole agencies and departments remain essentially leaderless.
We thought the Left believed in good government. How can you have good government when no one is minding the store?
The Brookings Institute, a left of center think tank, reports:
In the first 200 days, nearly all of Trump's nominees have encountered procedural barriers. Only seven nominees were confirmed without cloture being invoked, and every nominee has required a final recorded vote.
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We are strong advocates of the filibuster rules requiring 60 votes to pass legislation. It's a good check and balance against passing bad bills.
But given the the Left’s stonewalling in getting confirmation votes for even non-appointees, we agree with Senator John Thune that it's time to go "nuclear."
Senator Thune has set up a vote this week that would change the rules to allow a slate of 48 non-controversial nominees to be voted on together. If Democrats want to vote no, that is their prerogative. But it's cowardly and obstructionist for Senators to not even stand up and be counted.
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3) BLS Jobs Numbers Off by Almost 3 MILLION!
This is our chart of the day. Over the last 30 months or so of the Biden administration, the BLS has OVER-estimated job growth by some 2.8 million from the original headline estimates. It is suspicious that the errors were almost all in the same direction of making Biden's numbers look better than they really were.
We can't live with these numbers that are about as accurate as an astrologer. We need EJ Antoni confirmed ASAP to clean up this mess.
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4) 12th Grade Math and Reading Scores Hit All-Time Lows
What is happening in our schools is a grave danger to our nation and a case of national child abuse. Only 22% of 12 graders were proficient in math last year and a record 45% were below basic competency.
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Reading scores aren't quite as low as math, but the trendline is just as grim.
Only 35% of 12 graders were proficient in reading last year and a record 32% were below basic competency.
This is in part a result of the catastrophic school lockdowns during Covid. Thanks to the teacher unions for that.
End the public school monopoly now!!!
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5) Quote of the Day: "One Company After Another Leaving California"
Matt Mahan - the progressive Mayor of San Jose, the third-largest city in that state - responding to Gavin Newsom's dissing of Bed Bath and Beyond for fleeing California:
"How does [Newsom] help a state that has seen one high-profile company after another leave in recent years? We have the highest energy and housing costs in the continental United States, and, largely because of these high costs, the highest effective poverty rate in the nation."
Then, he added that he is tired of "watching our governor 'succeed' by making a ton of noise online, even sometimes at the expense of our state's reputation."
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6) Getting Some Fresh Air
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