Nigeria's path to prosperity

The Whetstone Freedom Fund (WFF) is an international initiative founded by the Institute of Economic Affairs in honour of the late Linda Whetstone, to support classical liberal ideas around the world. Each month on Insider we take a deep dive into the countries and partnerships which are being supported by the WFF.

President Trump’s 1st August tariff deadline has passed and countries around the world are coming to terms with new taxes on their US-bound exports. Among these is Nigeria, where the mere announcement of new tariffs on Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ in April caused the country’s central bank to pump almost $200 million into markets to stabilise its currency.

The panic was underpinned by Nigeria’ dependence on crude oil sales which make up almost 98% of its exports. It is also America’s top African source of oil imports, causing markets to fear the consequences of new trade barriers acutely. Even before the tariffs were implemented this month, their impacts were felt. Nigerian oil exports to the US fell by almost 12% year-on-year in the first five months of 2025.

Nigeria’s petroleum export reliance is partly a consequence of the protectionism that has plagued the country since its independence from Britain in 1960. Trading licences, high tariffs, and outright bans on some imports has benefitted small groups of government officials and domestic crony capitalists while keeping too many Nigerians in poverty and leaving the country vulnerable to external shocks.

Even after signing the African Continental Free Trade Area Agreement (AfCFTA) in 2019, the administration of former President Muhammadu Buhari (2015-2023) imposed new tariffs and import bans on a whole host of basic goods, including a total border closure for trade in 2019.

The Whetstone Freedom Fund has two close partners in Nigeria working to raise awareness of how freer trade would boost growth, opportunity, and living standards across the country: Ominira Initiative and The Liberalist Centre.

One of Ominira’s latest projects is its new Free Trade Fellowship, an intensive course for 30 young thinkers to deepen their understanding of trade economics and support them to write effectively in defence of free trade in national media. The fellowship includes reading and reviewing two IEA primers, An Introduction to Trade & Globalisation and An Introduction to Entrepreneurship (both by Eamonn Butler).

The current group of five fellows have already published 20 pieces in national media, from op-eds updating the case for free trade for new audiences, to focused policy pieces on key AfCFTA issues like the creation of a single currency and air cargo market.

The current group of fellows includes a writer from Punch, one of Nigeria’s most read news outlets, and all five have successfully published trade-related pieces in national media. This ensures a short-term benefit of boosting awareness of free trade within Nigeria’s media elite and across the country, while generating long-term benefits through deepening understanding of free trade among talented young writers who can use their platform to influence others for years to come.

The Liberalist has complimented work to penetrate established media audiences with liberal ideas by establishing a new platform for pro-liberty ideas. Since launching in 2022, The Liberalist has built a core audience of over 10,000 readers through their social media and monthly newsletter, while their writers and fellows have reached well over a million through partnerships with established media outlets. The Whetstone Freedom Fund is currently supporting The Liberalist to train 20 new writing fellows in Nigeria this year and expand their reach further.

There are clear signs that the climate of opinion on trade is changing in Nigeria, albeit slowly. After the country’s land border was closed to trade for almost five years, Nigeria’s National Assembly initiated the effort to override presidential power and reopen it. In 2023, the country liberalised its foreign exchange market, ended central bank financing of the fiscal deficit, and limited subsidies for domestic fuel producers. All of these reforms were made to boost transparency, reduce market distortions, and open the economy to foreign trade and investment. The National Assembly’s Commerce Committee now has a dedicated programme to monitor implementation of the AfCFTA and quickly change legislation where necessary to ease the process.

This has already paid dividends with Nigeria’s non-fuel exports rising by almost 20% year-on-year in the first half of 2025. Intra-African trade rose by a staggering 127% between 2023 and 2024.

This is where Trump’s tariffs may have had an unintended positive consequence domestically. After the panic caused by the initial announcement of tariffs, the Nigerian government greeted August’s implementation with a more positive attitude towards free trade. Trade Minister Jumoke Oduwole has pledged to reduce barriers preventing Nigeria from diversifying the types of goods it exports and the destination countries. She pledged to deepen trade ties with fellow African states and speed up implementation of the AfCFTA as part of that goal.

New US tariffs on Nigerian imports will have significant costs, chiefly for American consumers but also for exporters. But it may have the unintended effect of boosting Nigeria’s already positive trade trajectory. Through Ominira and The Liberalist, we are delighted to support organisations on the ground to continue that momentum.

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With the WFF's support our partners are spreading the foundational ideas of a free society right across the globe. In Nigeria and beyond, the WFF continues Linda Whetstone's legacy of supporting organisations to defend and expand liberty in the places that need it the most. None of this work would be possible without your support. If you would like to support the Whetstone Freedom Fund or find out more about the work we do, visit our website.