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** New CFTNI Turkey, Gaza Working Papers
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The Center for the National Interest is pleased to introduce a new working paper series offering thoughtful and timely perspectives on important issues in national security and foreign policy. The two inaugural reports are from CFTNI Senior Fellow Joshua Yaphe, a former intelligence analyst covering the Middle East.

The first paper, Türkiye and the Problem of an ‘America First’ Foreign Policy, examines how Ankara’s shifting domestic and regional position intersects with Washington’s foreign policy agenda, and the opportunities this presents for a deeper U.S.–Türkiye relationship. The second, Everyone Will Be Disappointed With the Day After in Gaza, offers a clear-eyed assessment of the difficult realities likely to shape Gaza’s future after the war, and the hard choices facing Israel, the Palestinians, and U.S. policymakers.

Paul Saunders

President

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Türkiye and the Problem of an ‘America First’ Foreign Policy

This report questions the assumptions of the America First foreign policy agenda by looking at the case study of Türkiye. This is a country that is at a crossroads, with incredible changes taking place, both in terms of the domestic political scene and the regional environment. Türkiye is now a pivotal player in the Middle East and President Erdogan has three more years until the next elections to solidify his legacy. This should be an opportunity for Washington to think strategically on how to build a stronger and deeper relationship.

Türkiye is trying to help the Trump Administration with back-channel talks in multiple conflicts, but it cannot offer the kinds of investment opportunities or high-tech partnerships that might grab headlines in Washington today. This is the same situation that a lot of countries today find themselves in, looking at Washington from the outside and wondering what it will take to get the administration's attention.

Read it here ([link removed]) .

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Everyone Will Be Disappointed With the Day After in Gaza

This paper takes a fresh look at the problem of what Gaza will look like after the war. Many have written about the topic, mostly with unrealistic expectations or false assumptions, and the subject has become a moving target with the parties themselves changing the goalposts. This report aims to present a realistic vision for the outcome, one in which everybody will almost inevitably have to accept some amount of compromise and disappointment.

As we get closer to something resembling an end-game in Gaza, we can see the basic outlines of a new status quo. That includes the limited role of the Palestinian Authority, the improbability of statehood, voter discontent in the West, and a prolonged military burden for Israel. This scenario will present a number of problems for Israel and America. Policymakers would do well to consider these hard realities now and start to prepare for the consequences.

Read it here ([link removed]) .

About the Author:

Joshua Yaphe ([link removed]) is a senior fellow at the Center for the National Interest and was a senior analyst for the Arabian Peninsula at the U.S. State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research. He has a PhD in History from American University in Washington, DC, and is the author of Saudi Arabia and Iraq as Friends and Enemies: Borders, Tribes and a History Shared ([link removed]) . In 2020, he was a visiting fellow at the National Council on US-Arab Relations, and from 2022 to 2024, he served as a visiting faculty member at the National Intelligence University. His latest book, Time and Narrative in Intelligence Analysis: A New Framework for the Production of Meaning ([link removed]) , is available for free in an Open Access online edition.

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